Pakistan’s textile industry braces for $3 billion cotton import bill as floods devastate crops

In this picture taken on August 30, 2022 labourers walk past cotton crops damaged by flood waters at Sammu Khan Bhanbro village in Sukkur, Sindh province. (AFP/File)
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Updated 03 September 2025
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Pakistan’s textile industry braces for $3 billion cotton import bill as floods devastate crops

  • Textile mills warn of severe cotton crop loss, urge government to declare national emergency
  • Analysts project up to five million bales lost, threatening $6 billion in damages for the industry

KARACHI: Pakistan’s textile manufacturers expect cotton imports to surge to as much as $3 billion this year, double last year’s bill, after floods devastated key growing areas in Punjab and now threaten Sindh, industry officials and analysts said.

The monsoon deluges, which have already swamped central Punjab, the nation’s breadbasket, are moving south toward Sindh, the country’s second-largest cotton belt, raising fears that further damage to fields will deepen losses in the days ahead. Agriculture makes up nearly a quarter of GDP and employs almost half of the labor force, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

“Probably, our cotton import can exceed $2.5 to $3 billion this year alone,” said Kamran Arshad, chairman of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), adding that millers imported $1.5 billion worth of cotton last year from Brazil, the United States, Africa and Australia.

Arshad said cotton-growing areas in central Punjab such as Vehari, Mailsi, Chichawatni and Burewala had been “negatively affected,” while some genetically modified Bt cotton crops were also under water. 

“This can lead to a crisis, because a lot of people will be losing their livelihoods. Their crops will be at stake,” he said, urging the government to declare a national emergency and curb luxury imports to conserve foreign exchange.

He also blamed record water releases from upstream India for compounding the devastation. Under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, India controls the eastern rivers but is required to notify Pakistan of dam discharges that can cause downstream flooding.

Flood damage has also undermined projections for Pakistan’s top export industry, which earned $18 billion last year.

“We were projecting a growth in textile exports from $18 billion to up to $20 billion in the coming year, but I don’t think that level will be achieved because of the unavailability of cotton and the higher cost of production,” said Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive of Arif Habib Commodities.

He estimated the industry could face a $6 billion hit, including about $4 billion in additional import costs and $2 billion in lost export potential. “This flood will have a devastating impact not only on cotton output but the exchange rate will equally be impacted,” Mehanti said.

PRODUCTION LOSSES

Analysts warned Pakistan may lose up to five million bales from this year’s 10.2 million bale production target, with overall output falling below last year’s seven million.

“The government’s target to produce 5.5 million bales in Punjab does not seem achievable now … cotton output may not exceed 4.5 million bales if flooding increases,” said Naseem Usman, chairman of the Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum.

Official data confirm the downturn. Pakistan’s cotton production as of Aug. 15 had already contracted by more than 17 percent to 887,401 bales, compared with 1.1 million a year earlier, according to a Sept. 2 report by the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee.

Usman said consumption would remain higher than domestic output, forcing Pakistan to rely heavily on imports that could exceed $2 billion, including raw cotton, seed and oil for animal feed.


Pakistan reassures investors after Barrick announces review of Reko Diq project after attacks

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Pakistan reassures investors after Barrick announces review of Reko Diq project after attacks

  • Mining giant announced it would reassess all aspects of project after coordinated Jan. 30-31 assaults killed 58 in Balochistan
  • Copper-gold project’s development long overshadowed by decades-long separatist insurgency in remote province

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has assured foreign investors it has the “capacity and capability” to secure the multibillion-dollar Reko Diq copper-gold mine, Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti said on Monday after Canada’s Barrick Mining Corporation ordered a review of the project following deadly separatist attacks in the province last month.

The mining giant announced it would reassess all aspects of the project after coordinated Jan. 30-31 assaults by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) killed 36 civilians and 22 security personnel across multiple districts of the remote southwestern province. Pakistani authorities say 216 militants were killed in follow-up operations.

The Reko Diq mine, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper and gold deposits, is a cornerstone of Pakistan’s efforts to attract foreign investment and expand mineral exports after a prolonged economic crisis. Islamabad hopes the mines will generate $70 billion in free cash flow and $90 billion in operating cash flow. The project, expected to begin production in 2028, is jointly owned by Barrick Gold and the governments of Pakistan and Balochistan.

The project’s development, however, has repeatedly been overshadowed by security concerns in Balochistan, a sparsely populated province bordering Iran and Afghanistan that has faced a decades-long insurgency in which separatist groups target security forces, infrastructure and projects linked to foreign investment. Militants accuse the state of exploiting local resources without benefiting residents, an allegation the government denies.

“Of course, the government of Balochistan is concerned [about security], it’s not that they aren’t,” Bugti told Arab News in an interview in Islamabad.

“Barrick Gold has a very large investment and we have other international partners in that [Reko Diq mining project]. We want to assure them through your platform as well and also when our meetings will take place that we have the capacity and capability to protect our foreign investors.

“The state is intact, the government is intact. There is a functional government, there is a functional state in Balochistan.”

Bugti said authorities were redesigning security arrangements for the project, including raising a dedicated protection force in mineral-bearing areas and strengthening border controls. However, he acknowledged that attacks affected investor confidence.

“Yes, [attacks] do make a dent, when your country or province takes off [economically],” he said. “It does impact the perception.”

However, Bugti refused to describe the coordinated January attacks as a “security failure.”

“A security failure is when the [army’s] corps headquarters is captured ... when someone seizes control of the biggest cantonment in Quetta, or for that matter, captures our IG [Inspector-General of Police] headquarters, or the IG FC [Frontier Corps] headquarters, you call it a security failure,” the chief minister said. 

“I say it was a success of security forces that within hours, as I told you, other than Nushki, everything was clear.” 

The minister accused Pakistan’s neighbor and archival India of supporting insurgent groups in Balochistan, an allegation New Delhi has repeatedly denied.

“What evidence do you need? Kulbhushan Jadhav was not here to sell chickpeas. It is on record that he was an intelligence officer who came to support Baloch insurgents, and the way he was arrested highlighted this,” he said.

Jadhav is an Indian national arrested by Pakistan in 2016 and convicted by a military court on espionage charges. India disputes the allegations and challenged the case at the International Court of Justice, which ordered Pakistan to review the conviction but did not rule on guilt or innocence.

Ultimately, Bugti said long-term stability in Balochistan depended on pursuing economic development alongside security operations.

“See there is a development paradigm and the security paradigm. Both should be carried forward together,” he said. 

“My vision is that meritocracy and an anti-corruption drive are key to success in Balochistan.”