KARACHI: Deadly monsoon floods are devastating Pakistan’s standing crops, with cotton the worst hit, a leading farmers’ representative warned on Saturday, raising concerns about a potential setback to the government’s ambitious 4.2 percent growth target this fiscal year.
Over 270 people, mostly children, have died and hundreds more have been injured since June 26 as intense monsoon rains battered Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Sindh, Balochistan, Azad Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Islamabad, according to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
Around 1,200 houses, 12 bridges and 18 kilometers of road have also been damaged, along with more than 360 livestock killed.
“Cotton is the worst-hit crop, besides rice, maize and mango orchards,” Khalid Mehmood Khokhar, president of the Kissan Ittehad Council (KIC), told Arab News. “While most of the rice has already been sown, floods have disrupted the remaining cultivation.”
Agriculture contributes nearly 23 percent to Pakistan’s GDP and underpins key export sectors. Cotton, in particular, is a vital raw material for Pakistan’s textiles, which fetched $18 billion in exports last fiscal year. Pakistan also exported $3.4 billion worth of rice and $308 million in fruits, including mangoes.
The government aims to produce 10.1 million bales of cotton across Punjab, Sindh, KP and Balochistan in the ongoing financial year. But progress has been uneven.
In Sindh, the biggest cotton-producing province, only 65 percent of the sowing target has been met. Punjab, the second-largest grower, has achieved 90 percent of its target.
Pakistan’s agriculture sector grew just 0.6 percent during the last fiscal year, dragging overall GDP growth down to 2.7 percent.
Economists warn the impact of the floods could again weigh heavily on national output.
“These floods will definitely impact Pakistan’s growth target this year,” Sana Tawfik, head of research at Arif Habib Limited, said. “This is a serious concern.”
She projects GDP growth to be closer to 3.4 percent this year.
“Agriculture may once again be a major drag,” she added.
Khalid Abdullah, Pakistan’s former cotton commissioner, said rainfall was already affecting crop quality.
“Rains and cloudy weather have been consistent in some areas,” he said. “This not only increases weeds but also flares up fungus attacks. If this weather continues, the cotton seed may start germinating inside the boll, which would mean the crop is gone.”
As of July 15, cotton arrivals were down 33 percent year-on-year, according to Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association data, with only 297,751 bales entering markets nationwide.
The government has still not shared estimated economic damages from the ongoing monsoon season, though they may run into billions of dollars once again.
Pakistan is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. According to the Economic Survey 2024–25, it has suffered 224 extreme natural disasters, 109 of them floods, since 1980, in which more than 100 million people were affected, causing $36.4 billion in economic losses.
Three years ago, Pakistan experienced heavy monsoon rains that killed about 1,700 people and caused widespread destruction of houses, farms and public infrastructure.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department has forecast further rainfall in parts of Punjab and KP over the coming days, as the monsoon season continues in the country.
