Why the world can’t afford a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz

This image grab taken from a video provided by Iran's Revolutionary Guard official website via SEPAH News on July 20, 2019, shows Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps boarding the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz. (AFP/File)
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Updated 22 June 2025
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Why the world can’t afford a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz

  • Even the mere suggestion that Iran could close the strait if the US joins Israeli strikes has sent oil prices soaring
  • Disruption to this strategic waterway could destabilize economies and trigger a new energy crisis, analysts warn

RIYADH: As the conflict between Israel and Iran intensifies, attention has turned to the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow, 33-kilometer-wide stretch of water separating Oman and Iran carrying a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply.

While this strategic waterway remains open for now, analysts have told Arab News any further escalation could put the vital shipping route at risk if Iran chooses to impose a blockade or attacks vessels.

A little over a week into the confrontation, which began on June 13 when Israel began striking Iran’s nuclear sites, scientists, military commanders and cities, daily exchanges of fire have killed hundreds.

Now, with threats of a maritime blockade looming should the US decide to join the conflict on Israel’s side, global energy markets are on edge. Any disruption could send prices skyrocketing, destabilize economies and trigger a new energy crisis.

“The Strait of Hormuz is not just a waterway; it is the artery of global energy. Any blockade would trigger a chain reaction the global economy is not prepared for,” Saudi geopolitical analyst Salman Al-Ansari told Arab News.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, 20 million barrels of oil — 20 percent of global consumption — pass through the Strait of Hormuz every day, along with one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas trade, primarily from Qatar.

The oil lane is so vital because no real alternatives exist. Most Gulf oil cannot be rerouted without massive delays. It is the only deep-water route capable of handling the world’s largest crude tankers.




This handout natural-colour image acquired with MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite taken on February 5, 2025 shows the Gulf of Oman and the Makran region (C) in southern Iran and southwestern Pakistan, and the Strait of Hormuz (L) and the northern coast of Oman (bottom). (Photo by NASA Earth Observatory / AFP)

The EIA has estimated that 84 percent of its crude flows to Asia, with China, India, Japan and South Korea as top buyers.

In February last year, the Washington-based Center for Security Policy analyzed Iran’s escalating activity in the Strait of Hormuz and said 76 percent of the crude oil transiting the waterway was destined for Asian markets.

When geopolitical tensions spiked over the past week after Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel, Brent crude surged from $69 to $74 per barrel in a single day — even though no ships were blocked.

Jassem Ajaka, an economist and professor at the Lebanese University, said this shows just how sensitive markets are to the mere suggestion of instability.

“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will inevitably lead to a rise in the price of a barrel of oil to over $100, meaning the price will increase by about $25 in a single jump — something the global economy is not accustomed to,” Ajaka told Arab News.




An Iranian Nasr missile is fired from a navy warship during a military exercise in the Gulf of Oman, near the strategic strait of Hormuz in southern Iran. (Iranian Army handout via AFP/File)

He added: “Oil is a strategic and vital commodity, and when its price rises, inflation will rise with it because it is involved in 95 percent of other goods. The extraction of raw materials, the manufacturing of food products and other items will see their prices increase.”

Al-Ansari noted that “with Iran and Israel already in direct confrontation, the risk of escalation in this critical corridor is dangerously real. Iran sees the strait as its ultimate pressure point. Shutting it down would ignite a global oil shock, push inflation higher, and send vulnerable economies into panic.”

Ajaka explained high oil prices would confront central banks worldwide with a dilemma over whether to lower or raise interest rates. He added insurance prices would rise, contributing to inflation, and that it would also cause disruptions in supply chains across several countries.

“In the case of Lebanon, for example, it would result in a complete electricity blackout, as the country relies entirely on fuel oil coming from Iraq,” he added.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, moved 5.5 million barrels per day through Hormuz last year. That is 38 percent of total crude flows in the strait, according to tanker tracking data produced by the London-based real-time insights delivery firm, Vortexa.

While the Kingdom has contingency pipelines, they are not a perfect solution. The East-West Pipeline, with a capacity of 7 million barrels per day, can divert crude to the Red Sea, but it is already running near full capacity due to recent Houthi attacks on shipping. 

The UAE’s Fujairah Pipeline, with 1.8 million barrels per day capacity, is also heavily used, leaving little to spare.

Iran’s Goreh-Jask Pipeline, designed for 300,000 barrels per day, is barely operational, having handled just 70,000 barrels per day before shutting down in late 2024.

If the Strait of Hormuz were blocked, the EIA said Saudi Arabia and the UAE could only reroute about 2.6 million barrels per day — far less than the 20 million that normally passes through.

Given that the economies of most Gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, rely heavily on oil exports, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz would deal a severe blow to their economic stability, according to Ajaka. “The extent of the financial damage would hinge on how long the strait remains blocked, with prolonged disruptions likely triggering budget deficits across the region,” he said.

For energy-hungry Asian economies, a blockade would be catastrophic.




This image grab taken from a video provided by Iran's Revolutionary Guard official website via SEPAH News on July 20, 2019, shows Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps boarding the British-flagged tanker Stena Impero in the Strait of Hormuz. (AFP/File)

“This narrow stretch carries nearly a third of the world’s seaborne oil. Its closure would cripple global trade routes, choke energy supplies and slam the brakes on economic growth from Asia to Europe,” said Al-Ansari.

China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for nearly half its crude imports. India, Japan, and South Korea would face severe shortages, forcing emergency releases from strategic reserves. Global shipping costs would explode as tankers would need to take longer routes around Africa.

“The first Asian economy to be affected by any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be China,” said Ajaka. “If the repercussions of the strait’s closure spill over into multiple economies, it could lead to a global recession — posing another challenge in terms of how to revive the global economy.”

The US is less vulnerable, importing only half a million barrels per day from the Gulf, equivalent to 7 percent of total US imports. But it would still suffer from skyrocketing global prices.

Al-Ansari emphasized that the crisis is not merely about oil: “It is about the fragile balance that keeps markets stable and societies moving.”

Iran has historically threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz but has never done so. In a recent op-ed for Arab News, Abdulaziz Sager, founder and chair of the Gulf Research Center, said a full closure “would harm Iran’s own economy given that it relies on the waterway for its oil exports.”




This combination of file pictures created on July 22, 2019, shows Iranian soldiers taking part in a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30, 2019 (up) and the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer (LHD 4) receiving a vertical replenishment-at-sea in the Arabian Sea on July 14, 2019. (AFP/US Navy/Keypher)

Despite Iran’s heavy reliance on the waterway, Behnam Saeedi, a member of the parliament’s National Security Committee presidium, was quoted by Mehr news agency on Thursday as saying a blockade remained on the table.

“Iran has numerous options to respond to its enemies and uses such options based on what the situation is,” he said. “Closing the Strait of Hormuz is one of the potential options for Iran.”

Mehr later quoted another lawmaker, Ali Yazdikhah, as saying Iran would continue to allow free shipping in the strait and in the Gulf so long as its vital national interests were not at risk.

“If the US officially and operationally enters the war in support of the Zionists (Israel), it is the legitimate right of Iran in view of pressuring the US and Western countries to disrupt their oil trade’s ease of transit,” said Yazdikhah.




An image grab taken from a video released by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards on July 18, 2019, reportedly shows the Panamanian-flagged tanker Riah, that was detained by Iran's Revolutionary Guards, in the highly sensitive Strait of Hormuz. (AFP/File)

However, it is not a decision Iran would take lightly.

“If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will undoubtedly lose economically and militarily,” said Ajaka. “Any country that wants to wage war will lose if it does not have foreign currency reserves, as war depletes these reserves — preventing it from making the decision to close the strait.

“The only circumstances that might lead Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz are if it feels its regime is on the verge of collapse,” he added.




Iranian troops take part in a military drill in Makran beach on the Gulf of Oman, near the Hormuz Strait. (Iranian Army handout via AFP/File)

As Iran already seems to have been backed into a corner, there is every chance it could take this final leap. As Al-Ansari said: “Iran is already economically crippled and is facing an existential reality. The scenario of closing the strait should never be ruled out.”

Past incidents have shown the global impact of regional events. In 2019, attacks on Saudi tankers near Fujairah and the Abqaiq drone strikes briefly cut 5 percent of the global oil supply. World powers, therefore, have a major interest in keeping the strait open.

“Any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would prompt military intervention by the US and the UK,” said Ajaka.

On June 17, US officials informed The New York Times that Iran had positioned missiles and military assets for potential strikes on American bases in the Middle East if the US entered the conflict. 




The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln transits the Strait of Hormuz as an MH-60S Sea Hawk helicopter lifts off from the flight deck on November 19, 2019. (AFP/File)

Other officials also warned Iran could resort to mining the Strait of Hormuz in the event of an attack — a strategy designed to trap US warships in the Persian Gulf.

In the event of a blockade, Ajaka suggested Western and Asian nations would likely tap into strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate immediate shortages.

However, he added this would only provide temporary relief, as non-OPEC countries have already maxed out their production capacity, leaving OPEC members as the only potential source of additional supply.

“If the strait is closed and oil prices rise, oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, may resort to halting production cuts and instead increase output to curb the sharp rise in prices,” he said.

“One other possible measure would be for the US to ease restrictions on oil-producing countries like Venezuela to increase oil supply in the market.”

Nevertheless, Ajaka said: “The core position of oil — and the fundamental reason for the necessity of security in the Middle East — is that the Arabian Gulf must remain the ultimate guarantor.”
 

 


Jordan tourism revenues climb 11.9% in H1 despite regional headwinds

Updated 17 July 2025
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Jordan tourism revenues climb 11.9% in H1 despite regional headwinds

  • Saudi Arabia led the region with a 148% rise in international tourism revenue in 2024
  • Spending by Jordanians on outbound tourism rose 3.3% year on year

RIYADH: Jordan’s tourism revenues rose 11.9 percent year on year in the first half of 2025 to reach $3.67 billion, underscoring the sector’s resilience amid geopolitical tensions in the region. 

According to data from the Central Bank of Jordan, the growth came despite a slight setback in June, when monthly revenues fell 3.7 percent to $619.2 million, state-run Petra news agency reported. 

 Turki Faisal Al-RasheedDespite this, Jordan’s performance reflects a broader tourism surge across the Middle East, with a May release by the World Travel & Tourism Council showing the sector added $341.9 billion to gross domestic product and 7.3 million jobs in 2024, with projections of $367.3 billion and 7.7 million jobs in 2025. 

Saudi Arabia led the region with a 148 percent rise in international tourism revenue in 2024, according to its Ministry of Tourism, while Oman, the UAE, and Qatar continued to attract strong visitor flows through investment, connectivity, and major events. 

Citing the central bank data, Petra said: “Tourism revenues from Asian visitors surged by 42.9 percent during the first half of the year, while revenues from European tourists increased by 35.6 percent, Americans by 25.8 percent, Arabs by 11.5 percent, and other nationalities by 43.0 percent.”  

It added: “Conversely, revenues from Jordanian expatriates visiting the Kingdom registered a modest decline of 0.8 percent over the same period.” 

Spending by Jordanians on outbound tourism rose 3.3 percent year on year in the first half of 2025, reaching $999.7 million, despite a 22.7 percent decline in June alone, when spending fell to $195.6 million. 

This comes on the back of a strong start to 2025, with Jordan welcoming 1.51 million visitors in the first quarter — a 13 percent increase from the same period last year — while receipts rose 8.85 percent to 1.22 billion Jordanian dinars ( $1.72 billion), according to the Ministry of Tourism and Antiquities’ first-quarter report. 

The recovery was further supported by the return of air connectivity, which had nearly disappeared in 2024. New agreements with European carriers expanded the number of low-cost direct routes to 25 this year, including 20 to Amman for the summer and five to Aqaba in the winter. These routes are expected to bring in around 270,000 travelers, the report added. 

Looking ahead, the ministry said it is developing a new National Tourism Strategy for 2025–2028, building on the previous plan and aligning with the country’s Economic Modernization Vision. 

The updated roadmap aims to diversify source markets, including China, India, Russia, Africa, and Southeast Asia, and promote high-potential segments such as medical, wellness, faith-based, adventure, and meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions, or MICE, tourism. 


EU pledges $46.4bn for MENA renewables, borders, and migration

Updated 17 July 2025
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EU pledges $46.4bn for MENA renewables, borders, and migration

JEDDAH: Renewable energy, border security, and migration pathways in the Middle East and North Africa will receive €42.5 billion ($46.4 billion) from the EU from 2028, it has been announced.

This doubled financial commitment, under a new funding instrument, aims to enhance stability and cooperation in the region.

Speaking during a press conference in Brussels on July 17, EU Commissioner for Democracy and Demography Dubravka Suica said the increased budget reflects the bloc’s strategic shift toward deeper cooperation with countries in region.

“This is a strong financial toolbox, with which we will invest in stability, security and prosperity, through mutually beneficial partnerships with our Southern neighbors in the Middle East, North Africa and the Gulf,” she said, emphasizing that the Mediterranean is not only a region of challenges but also one of opportunities.

Suica further noted that the EU will support partner countries in addressing the underlying causes of socio-economic fragility, which she said are central to political instability and radicalization.

She added that the bloc will also confront the challenges of the green transition by investing in renewable energy projects, benefiting citizens on both sides of the Mediterranean.

“These increased funds will enable us to respond more effectively to an increasingly volatile geopolitical context right at our doorstep,” the commissioner said.

She stressed that the stability and prosperity of the Mediterranean are directly linked to Europe’s own.

“Their safety is our safety. Their success is our shared success. Their protection of borders is also ours.”

Suica described the Multiannual Financial Framework as an instrument that will strengthen the union, both internally and internationally.

“This new framework enables us to better protect our interest on a global stage and protect our values and interests in an increasingly complex geopolitical context,” she concluded.


Closing Bell: Saudi bourses end week in red at 11,007

Updated 17 July 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi bourses end week in red at 11,007

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index fell on Thursday, shedding 31.76 points, or 0.29 percent, to close at 11,006.98.

The benchmark index recorded a total trading turnover of SR4.19 billion ($1.12 billion), with 125 stocks advancing and 117 declining.

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also slipped, losing 50.11 points to close at 27,294.97.

The MSCI Tadawul Index dropped 0.32 percent to settle at 1,410.87.

LIVA Insurance Co. was the best performer on the main market, with its share price surging 9.94 percent to SR13.93.

Emaar The Economic City saw its shares rise by 5.15 percent to SR13.69, while Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund gained 4.57 percent to reach SR9.15.

Tourism Enterprise Co. recorded the steepest decline, falling 6.45 percent to SR0.87.

On the announcements front, Lana Medical Co. said it secured multiple contracts worth SR57.1 million from the Ministry of Health.

According to a Tadawul statement, the first contract, valued at SR53.5 million, involves the collection and storage of hazardous waste at health centers, hospitals, and specialized facilities in the Al-Jouf region and Al-Qurayyat Governorate.

The second contract, worth SR3.6 million, covers the transportation of medical waste to the Riyadh First Health Cluster.

The company stated that the impact of these 60-month contracts will be reflected in its financial results starting in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In a separate filing, Lana Medical Co. announced a two-year agreement valued at SR10 million with the National Unified Procurement Co. to manage medical waste.

Shares of Lana Medical Co., listed on the Nomu parallel market, rose 7.98 percent to close at SR36.


Saudi Arabia’s retail real estate growth prospects strong: S&P Global 

Updated 17 July 2025
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Saudi Arabia’s retail real estate growth prospects strong: S&P Global 

RIYADH: International retail brands attracted by social and economic shifts in Saudi Arabia are set to deliver real estate sector growth to the Kingdom, according to an analysis.

In its latest report, S&P Global stated that the residential real estate sector in the nation also appears strong, with young Saudi families relocating to cities in search of work opportunities. 

Strengthening the real estate sector is one of the crucial goals outlined in Vision 2030, as Saudi Arabia continues to diversify its economy away from oil and position itself as a global business and tourist destination. 

The Kingdom’s Real Estate General Authority expects the property market to reach $101.62 billion by 2029, with an anticipated compound annual growth rate of 8 percent from 2024.

In its latest report, S&P Global said: “Saudi retail real estate growth prospects are strong. Significant social and economic changes in the Kingdom are making it a major target market for international brands in the fashion, luxury, and food and beverage segments. As a result, demand for premium retail space is increasing.” 

In June, global real estate consultancy Knight Frank, also echoed similar views, stating that Saudi Arabia’s commercial real estate sector is witnessing exponential growth, with rents for Grade A office spaces in the Kingdom’s capital reaching SR2,700 ($719.95) per sq. meter by the end of the first quarter, representing a 23 percent rise compared to the same period in the previous year. 

In its latest analysis, S&P Global noted that Saudi Arabia’s retail landscape is expected to face several challenges, including oversupply, particularly in the shopping mall sector. 

“Saudi retail real estate could face a supply wall. Knight Frank forecasts Riyadh’s supply to grow by 50 percent by 2027 and Jeddah’s to grow 75 percent over the same period. This could lead to rental discounts, revenue-sharing lease models, and other incentives to maintain occupancies,” said S&P Global. 

The US-based agency further stated that the Kingdom’s retail real estate sector has strong growth prospects, provided that careful planning and market positioning are implemented, which are expected to help mall owners ensure long-term success.

In a broader context, the report projected that Dubai and Abu Dhabi are experiencing resilient demand and modest rental growth for retail real estate, with prime super-regional malls continuing to dominate the market, which has led to mall owners expanding their offerings.

S&P Global added that Dubai’s commercial real estate sector is booming, as vacancy rates remain at an all-time low of 8.6 percent, and demand for grade-A offices drives up rentals. 

“Supportive regulations for businesses, dynamic economic environment, and the low tax regime sustains the city’s attractiveness for global businesses and family offices,” said the report. 

S&P Global cautioned that oversupply in the oil market will continue to outweigh slow oil demand growth through 2025 and beyond, and this could negatively impact the growth of real estate sectors in both Saudi Arabia and Dubai. 

“Unfavorable tariffs could also lead to economic slowdown and weaker market sentiment. This could have some impact on residential prices and rents as we believe there is good correlation, despite Dubai’s economy being less reliant on oil. Saudi Arabia and its spending on Vision 2030 remain highly dependent on oil prices,” added the report. 

According to the analysis, the current ceasefire between Israel and Iran has reduced immediate regional credit stress; however, an escalated, prolonged geopolitical conflict could lead to an expatriate exodus from the region, severely impacting real estate prices and rents.


Syria announces sweeping tax reforms to boost transparency, investment

Updated 17 July 2025
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Syria announces sweeping tax reforms to boost transparency, investment

RIYADH: Syria’s Finance Ministry has announced a major overhaul of the country’s tax system, set to take effect in early 2026, as part of broader efforts to modernize fiscal policy, enhance transparency, and attract investment.

According to a statement carried by the state-run SANA news agency, the draft law for the new income tax system is currently open for public consultation until July 30. The reforms are designed to ease the burden on taxpayers, promote fairness, and stimulate economic activity through clearer and more equitable rules.

Under the proposed system, individuals earning less than $12,000 annually will be fully exempt from income tax, in a move aimed at supporting low-income earners.

Corporate tax rates will be tailored by sector, replacing the current “flat income committees” with a more transparent and structured mechanism.

The reforms will also unify multiple charges into a single tax fee to eliminate double taxation, while offering deductions for taxpayers who make verified social contributions.

Enhanced digital systems—including mandatory electronic invoicing and QR code integration—will be introduced to curb tax evasion and strengthen compliance.

To improve trust and streamline the resolution of tax disputes, the ministry plans to implement simplified procedures, with complex cases referred to a specialized tax court. Notably, the burden of proving income sources will shift from the taxpayer to the tax authority—a significant change from the existing framework.

In addition, incentives will be introduced for timely payment, and a separate initiative will address the settlement of outstanding tax dues to protect public funds without overburdening taxpayers.

The Finance Ministry said the changes reflect its commitment to building a fair, flexible, and modern tax environment that can support Syria’s broader economic recovery.