World oil demand to keep growing this decade despite 2027 China peak, IEA says

Oil demand will peak at 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029 and then fall slightly in 2030. Shutterstock
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Updated 17 June 2025
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World oil demand to keep growing this decade despite 2027 China peak, IEA says

  • IEA forecasts oil demand peak at 105.6 million bpd by 2029
  • China’s oil demand to peak in 2027 due to EV growth

LONDON: Global oil demand will keep growing until around the end of this decade despite peaking in top importer China in 2027, as cheaper gasoline and slower electric vehicle adoption in the United States support oil use, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. 

The IEA, which advises industrialized countries, did not change its prediction that demand will peak this decade, a view that sharply contrasts with that of producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which says consumption will keep growing and has not forecast a peak.

Oil demand will peak at 105.6 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029 and then fall slightly in 2030, a table in the Paris-based IEA’s annual report shows. At the same time, global production capacity is forecast to rise by more than 5 million bpd to 114.7 million bpd by 2030.

A conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted the risk to Middle East supplies, helping send oil prices up 5 percent to above $74 a barrel on Friday. Still, the latest forecasts suggest ample supplies through 2030 if there are no major disruptions, the IEA said.

“Based on the fundamentals, oil markets look set to be well-supplied in the years ahead,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement. “But recent events sharply highlight the significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security,” Birol said.

After decades of leading global oil demand growth, China’s contribution is sputtering as it faces economic challenges as well as making a big shift to EVs. The world’s second-largest economy is set to see its oil consumption peak in 2027, following a surge in EV sales and the deployment of high-speed rail and trucks running on natural gas, the IEA said.

In February, it predicted China’s demand for road and air transport fuels may have already peaked.

China’s total oil consumption in 2030 is now set to be only marginally higher than in 2024, the IEA said, compared with growth of around 1 million bpd forecast in last year’s report.

By contrast, lower gasoline prices and slower EV adoption in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, have boosted the 2030 oil demand forecast by 1.1 million bpd compared with the previous prediction, the IEA said.

Since returning to office, US President Donald Trump has demanded OPEC lower oil prices and taken aim at EVs through steps such as signing resolutions approved by lawmakers barring California’s EV sales mandates.


‘The future is renewables,’ Indian energy minister tells World Economic Forum

Updated 22 January 2026
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‘The future is renewables,’ Indian energy minister tells World Economic Forum

  • ‘In India, I can very confidently say, affordability (of renewables) is better than fossil fuel energy,’ says Pralhad Venkatesh Joshi during panel discussion
  • Renewables are an increasingly important part of the energy mix and the technology is evolving rapidly, another expert says at session titled ‘Unstoppable March of Renewables?’

BEIRUT: “The future is renewables,” India’s minister of new and renewable energy told the World Economic Forum in Davos on Wednesday.
“In India, I can very confidently say, affordability (of renewables) is better than fossil fuel energy,” Pralhad Venkatesh Joshi said during a panel discussion titled “Unstoppable March of Renewables?”
The cost of solar power has has fallen steeply in recent years compared with fossil fuels, Joshi said, adding: “The unstoppable march of renewables is perfectly right, and the future is renewables.”
Indian authorities have launched a major initiative to install rooftop solar panels on 10 million homes, he said. As a result, people are not only saving money on their electricity bills, “they are also selling (electricity) and earning money.”
He said that this represents a “success story” in India in terms of affordability and “that is what we planned.”
He acknowledged that more work needs to be done to improve reliability and consistency of supplies, and plans were being made to address this, including improved storage.
The other panelists in the discussion, which was moderated by Godfrey Mutizwa, the chief editor of CNBC Africa, included Marco Arcelli, CEO of ACWA Power; Catherine MacGregor, CEO of electricity company ENGIE Group; and Pan Jian, co-chair of lithium-ion battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology.
Asked by the moderator whether she believes “renewables are unstoppable,” MacGregor said: “Yes. I think some of the numbers that we are now facing are just proof points in terms of their magnitude.
“In 2024, I think it was 600 gigawatts that were installed across the globe … in Europe, close to 50 percent of the energy was produced from renewables in 2024. That has tripled since 2004.”
Renewables are an increasingly important and prominent part of the energy mix, she added, and the technology is evolving rapidly.
“It’s not small projects; it’s the magnitude of projects that strikes me the most, the scale-up that we are able to deliver,” MacGregor said.
“We are just starting construction in the UAE, for example. In terms of solar size it’s 1.5 gigawatts, just pure solar technology. So when I see in the Middle East a round-the-clock project with just solar and battery, it’s coming within reach.
“The technology advance, the cost, the competitiveness, the size, the R&D, the technology behind it and the pace is very impressive, which makes me, indeed, really say (renewables) is real. It plays a key role in, obviously, the energy demand that we see growing in most of the countries.
“You know, we talk a lot about energy transition, but for a lot of regions now it is more about energy additions. And renewables are indeed the fastest to come to market, and also in terms of scale are really impressive.”
Mutizwa asked Pan: “Are we there yet, in terms of beginning to declare mission accomplished? Are renewables here to stay?”
“I think we are on the road but (its is) very promising,” Pan replied. There is “great potential for future growth,” he added, and “the technology is ready, despite the fact that there are still a lot of challenges to overcome … it is all engineering questions. And from our perspective, we have been putting in a lot of resources and we are confident all these engineering challenges will be tackled along the way.”
Responding to the same question, Arcelli said: “Yes, I think we are beyond there on power, but on other sectors we are way behind … I would argue today that the technology you install by default is renewables.
“Is it a universal truth nowadays that renewables are the cheapest?” asked Mutizwa.
“It’s the cheapest everywhere,” Arcelli said.