RIYADH: Saudi banks’ outstanding loan portfolio climbed to SR3.13 trillion ($833.7 billion) at the end of April, up 16.51 percent from a year earlier and marking the fastest annual expansion since mid-2021.

According to figures from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, the double-digit jump adds roughly SR443 billion in new credit over 12 months and underscores how the Kingdom’s project-driven growth model is reshaping balance-sheet priorities across the banking system.

Behind the headline figure is a striking pivot toward business customers. Corporate borrowing jumped 22 percent year on year to SR1.72 trillion, lifting its share of total credit above 55 percent, while loans to individuals rose a more measured 10.4 percent to about SR1.4 trillion.

Real estate developers remain the largest borrowers, accounting for 21.77 percent of outstanding corporate credit. This division was followed by the wholesale and retail trade sector at 12.29 percent, utilities, including electricity, gas, and water, at 10.98 percent, and manufacturing, which is close behind at 10.9 percent.

Within the fastest-growing niches, transport and storage finance soared 47.5 percent to SR67.6 billion, education credit expanded 44.8 percent to SR9.5 billion, real-estate borrowing increased nearly 39 percent, and loans to financial services and insurance firms jumped 35.1 percent to SR159.9 billion, according to SAMA.

Vision 2030 projects drive demand

Large national projects are driving most of the new business borrowing. Huge developments, such as NEOM, the Red Sea resort, Diriyah, and King Salman International Airport, require long-term bank loans to enable builders and suppliers to continue their operations.

Newer industries, including green hydrogen plants and data centers, utilize short-term credit to cover their costs while they are being established.

At the same time, home loan growth is slowing because many families took advantage of subsidized Sakani mortgages between 2021 and 2023.

A March report by JLL says Saudi Arabia’s non-oil economy should grow 5.8 percent in this year, up from 4.5 percent in 2024.

JLL expects the real estate market to be worth about $101.6 billion by 2029, an average rise of 8 percent a year, and noted that Grade-A offices in Riyadh are almost fully occupied, pushing prime rents to $609 per sq. meter.

Such conditions translate directly into bank-financed demand for land acquisition, infrastructure outlays and bridging loans for developers racing to deliver stock ahead of the FIFA World Cup 2030 and Expo 2030.

Although real-estate developers still claim the largest slice of corporate credit, another borrower group is accelerating just as quickly: insurers. As the property boom feeds through to compulsory project coverage and fast-growing medical and motor lines, the insurance industry’s need for cash and capital is rising sharply.

According to KPMG’s Saudi Arabia Insurance Overview 2025, sector revenue jumped 16.9 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2024 as compulsory medical cover, brisk motor sales, and a wave of big property projects swelled premium volumes and claims reserves. The same report flags heavy spending on “technological innovation” as firms roll out IFRS-17 systems and digital sales platforms.

Under SAMA’s rulebook, however, ordinary loans or bond proceeds cannot be counted toward an insurer’s solvency margin unless the central bank gives written approval, and only Basel-style Tier-2 subordinated instruments qualify as supplementary capital.

Facing larger day-to-day cash needs, significant IT expenditures, and tighter capital buffers, alongside a regulator-driven wave of mergers that has already prompted players like Amana Cooperative and ACIG to explore tie-ups to gain scale, insurers are increasingly turning to banks for revolving credit lines and subordinated sukuk financing.

The funding strain is now visible in the monetary statistics. Outstanding bank credit to “financial and insurance activities,” registering one of the fastest growth rates of any sector, reflecting a mix of liquidity borrowings.

The education sector is also borrowing heavily to meet Vision 2030 targets. April’s EDGEx 2025 expo in Riyadh attracted over 20,000 delegates and showcased private-school growth plans that could lift the non-state share of enrolment from roughly 17 percent to 25 percent within five years.

New digital platforms such as Madaris promise to streamline admissions and tuition payments, while PwC’s purchase of Saudi consultancy Emkan underscores the sector’s investment appeal. These dynamics help explain why bank lending to education providers is growing at more than four times the system average.

Funding and liquidity

Rapid corporate demand poses funding challenges. Fitch projects that Saudi bank lending will rise by 12 percent to 14 percent in 2025, again surpassing deposit growth and stretching a funding shortfall that had already reached roughly SR0.3 trillion in 2024.

For now, liquidity remains comfortable. The loan-to-deposit ratio stands near 82.41 percent in April, and non-performing loans hover below 1.5 percent, according to SAMA data, thanks in part to stricter underwriting and the central bank’s early-warning analytics.

Interest rates’ dual impact

Contrary to conventional wisdom, elevated interest rates have not dampened corporate borrowing appetite. Several structural factors continue to shield large borrowers from the impact of rising rates.

Project-finance deals tied to government-related entities in the Gulf are typically funded on long-term, availability-based contracts, with pricing linked to government benchmarks rather than floating interbank rates, limiting their direct exposure to movements in SAIBOR.

Large corporations also employ interest-rate swaps and caps to lock in borrowing costs, according to local treasury advisory guidance, so higher policy rates do not translate one-for-one into higher debt-service outlays.

Households, by contrast, feel the tightening much sooner. SAMA’s updated disclosure rules require banks to display mortgage rates tied to the three-month SAIBOR, and most variable-rate home finance contracts reset against that benchmark every quarter.

As SAIBOR followed the US Fed trajectory above 5 percent through 2024, monthly repayments for floating-rate mortgages rose accordingly, helping explain why retail-loan growth has cooled relative to corporate demand.

Taken together, the mix of hedged or government-linked pricing on large projects and the immediate SAIBOR pass-through on household mortgages helps explain why elevated interest rates have slowed consumer borrowing more than business lending — without significantly curbing overall credit growth.

The April numbers confirm a structural hand-off. After a decade in which subsidized mortgages dominated credit creation, business lending is now the engine of Saudi banking.

That shift mirrors the broader diversification of the Kingdom’s economy— away from oil, toward industry, logistics, tourism and technology. For lenders, the opportunity is immense, but so is the challenge of funding mega-projects without stretching balance sheet resilience.

With capital ratios near 19 percent and a regulatory regime quick to adapt, Saudi banks appear well-placed to finance the next leg of Vision 2030’s transformation while maintaining the stability that has long been the system’s hallmark.