Will sanctions relief unlock Syria’s potential, spur economic recovery?

Experts argue the interim government and international partners can still take steps to foster investment and recovery. (AFP)(AFP)
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Updated 25 May 2025
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Will sanctions relief unlock Syria’s potential, spur economic recovery?

  • With US and EU restrictions easing and the diaspora mobilizing, Syria’s entrepreneurs are cautiously eyeing a path to renewal
  • The future may depend less on oil, and more on whether people believe it is safe to come home — and stay, analysts say

LONDON: In a major shift in US foreign policy, President Donald Trump recently pledged to lift sanctions on Syria — a move that has sparked cautious optimism among Syrian entrepreneurs eyeing a long-awaited path to economic recovery after years of war and isolation.

The announcement was quickly followed by a widely publicized meeting in Riyadh on May 14 between Trump and Syria’s interim president, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, ahead of a broader summit of Gulf leaders during Trump’s regional tour, signaling a renewed emphasis on diplomatic engagement with Damascus.

Hosted by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the meeting marked the most significant international overture to Syria since the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in December.

It also marked the first meeting between a sitting US president and a Syrian head of state in more than 20 years.




Sanctions imposed on the Assad regime and inherited by Al-Sharaa’s government targeted key sectors such as banking, transport and energy. (AFP)

As a follow-up to Trump’s announcement, the US government on Saturday issued a six-month waiver of key Caesar Act sanctions, authorizing transactions with Syria’s interim government, central bank, and state firms. The move also clears the way for investment in energy, water, and infrastructure to support humanitarian aid and reconstruction.

Significantly, the EU announced on May 20 that it would follow the US lead and lift its own remaining sanctions on Syria. “We want to help the Syrian people rebuild a new, inclusive and peaceful Syria,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas posted on X.

Analysts believe that these developments indicate a thaw in relations, opening the door to future cooperation, particularly in rebuilding Syria’s war-ravaged economy.

“Lifting sanctions is a necessary and critical measure,” Syrian economic adviser Humam Aljazaeri told Arab News, highlighting that a key sector poised to benefit is energy, particularly electricity generation.

Syria’s energy infrastructure has been decimated by more than a decade of civil war and sanctions.

Before the conflict erupted in 2011, Syria produced about 400,000 barrels of oil a day, nearly half of which was exported, according to the Alma Research and Education Center.




Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, center, hosted a meeting between Syria’s interim president, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, right, and US President Donald Trump in Riyadh. (SPA)

Since then, oil and gas output has plunged by more than 80 percent, as fields, refineries and pipelines were destroyed or seized by warring factions, according to World Bank data.

Power generation dropped 56 percent between 2011 and 2015, the local newspaper Al-Watan reported at the time. Today, daily blackouts — sometimes lasting 20 hours — are a grim feature of life across Syria.

Beyond energy, Aljazaeri highlighted the humanitarian sector as another area in urgent need of relief. If sanctions are lifted, Syria “would enjoy a frictionless flow of programs through various UN and other international agencies,” he said.

That relief cannot come soon enough. The UN estimates that 16.7 million Syrians — roughly three-quarters of the population — will require humanitarian aid in 2025. Syria is now the world’s fourth most food-insecure country, with 14.5 million people in need of nutritional support.

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Despite the scale of need, international funding remains woefully short. As of late February, only 10 percent of the $1.2 billion required for early 2025 humanitarian operations had been secured, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Even when funds are available, getting aid to those in need is an ongoing logistical challenge. Continued conflict, insecurity and decimated infrastructure — especially in the hard-hit northern and northeastern regions — make delivery slow and difficult.

Conditions are worsening. Severe drought this year threatens to wipe out up to 75 percent of Syria’s wheat crop, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, placing millions at even greater risk of hunger.




Syria is now the world’s fourth most food-insecure country, with 14.5 million people in need of nutritional support. (AFP)

The crisis is further compounded by the return of about 1.2 million displaced Syrians between December and early 2025. Many have returned to towns and villages in ruins, overwhelming humanitarian services.

While sectors such as transport and trade could see quick wins if sanctions are eased, Aljazaeri cautioned that a full recovery would require time and clearer international policy direction.

“Sectors like infrastructure, health, education and general business are not expected to move quickly in the interim period,” he said. “These areas need a clearer international policy on sanctions and a more stable investment climate.”

Lifting sanctions is a necessary and critical measure

Humam Aljazaeri, Syrian economic adviser

For now, Aljazaeri said, the US is expected to offer only limited relief — temporary exemptions and executive licenses for 180 days — before reassessing its stance, potentially through a broader congressional review.

“This piecemeal approach won’t provide enough assurance for serious investors,” he said. “Against this backdrop, it is important to see how the government will act in the coming weeks and months to justify further international integration and a more sustainable lifting of sanctions.”

Rebuilding Syria could cost between $400 billion and $600 billion, according to Lebanese economist Nasser Saidi.




Syria’s energy infrastructure has been decimated by more than a decade of civil war and sanctions. (AFP)

Syria’s natural resources and its regional pipeline network could attract investors, he wrote in an essay for Arabian Gulf Business Insight magazine.

However, he emphasized that tapping this potential would require dismantling the country’s “corrupt, politically controlled, state-owned enterprises and government-related entities,” and reviving a vibrant private sector.

Some positive steps, however small, are already underway. The Karam Shaar Advisory, a New Zealand-based consulting firm, noted that 97 new limited liability companies were registered in Syria between Assad’s fall in December and March 26.

While the firm called it “a modest rise in formal company formation,” it said that economic stagnation persists.

Meanwhile, efforts to rebuild shattered infrastructure are gaining traction, particularly with the Syrian diaspora poised to play a role.

INNUMBERS

• 84% Syria’s GDP contraction between 2010 and 2023.

• $400–$600bn Syria’s projected reconstruction and redevelopment needs.

(Sources: World Bank & Nasser Saidi & Associates)

“Conversations are underway about involving all stakeholders to create enabling frameworks,” Mohamed Ghazal, managing director of Startup Syria, a community-led initiative supporting Syrian entrepreneurs, told Arab News.

Government buy-in will be essential. “Think tanks and task forces are working on this, but strong cooperation from the Syrian government is crucial — and there are promising signs in this direction,” Ghazal said.

He highlighted the diaspora’s potential to drive investment, skills transfer and community development. “There is a growing recognition that the Syrian diaspora can significantly contribute to ecosystem-building,” he said.

Still, many in the diaspora remain cautious. Ghazal said that the tipping point for engagement included sustainable peace, rule of law, property rights, improved governance, reduced corruption, investment incentives, infrastructure reconstruction and a coordinated international approach.

Aljazaeri echoed those concerns, noting that lifting sanctions alone would not stabilize Syria or improve living conditions. “Issues related to law and order, reconciliation and good policies are detrimental,” he said.

“In our view, it is not inflation, corruption, or cronyism that would pose a challenge at this stage, rather ‘right economics’ or the lack of it. The Syrian administration needs to demonstrate competency in running the economy and applying the necessary reforms.

“It has the power, maybe also the will, but must have the capabilities to do the right thing,” he said, stressing that “to do that, it needs to engage more and widen the pool of dialogue and trust.”




Despite the optimism, the path ahead remains fraught with dangers. (AFP)

However, the path ahead remains fraught with dangers. Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, warned on Wednesday of “the real dangers of renewed conflict and deeper fragmentation” in the war-torn country.

Since Assad’s fall, Syria has seen new waves of violence, particularly along the coast, where his Alawite sect is concentrated. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, the Islamist group that led the offensive that toppled Assad, now controls much of the area, which has been wracked by sectarian violence.

Reports of mass executions, looting and arson have heightened fears of renewed sectarian conflict. Al-Sharaa’s government is reportedly struggling to assert control, facing clashes with Druze in the south and standoffs with Kurds in the northeast.

“The Al-Sharaa government has two options in Syria; bring the minorities into government in a meaningful way so they feel invested in the future of the country and believe that they can protect themselves from within the state, or to suppress the minorities and force their compliance,” Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News.

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• By 2023, the Syrian pound had collapsed 300-fold from SYP47 per dollar in 2011 to over SYP14,000. 

• Hack for Syria, a hybrid event held Feb. 22–28, drew 5,500 participants from Syria and abroad.

“So far, Al-Sharaa has been using both methods. With the Alawites, he has favored the second method — force. With the Druze and Kurds, he has offered deals.”

Despite the instability, experts argue the interim government and international partners can still take steps to foster investment and recovery.

“Temporarily unlocking frozen financial assets could provide a lifeline,” Aljazaeri said. “How those resources are used will define the government’s direction.”

Ghazal said that capital is urgently needed to fuel entrepreneurship. “Transparent financial channels, encouragement of diaspora investment and attraction of impact investors could bring necessary seed and growth capital,” he said.

 

He noted Syria’s growing startup scene, with more than 200 active ventures. Events such as the “Hack for Syria” hackathon, held from Feb. 22–28, showcased the country’s talent and drive to solve local problems.

“However, these entrepreneurs need support to scale and access global opportunities,” he said.

Sanctions imposed on the Assad regime and inherited by Al-Sharaa’s government targeted key sectors such as banking, transport and energy.

Syria’s gross domestic product plunged from $67.5 billion in 2011 to about $21 billion in 2024, according to the World Bank.




The diaspora has a potential to drive investment, skills transfer and community development. (AFP)

The sanctions cut Syria off from the global financial system, froze government assets and strangled trade — especially in oil — crippling state revenues and economic activity.

This contributed to widespread poverty, with more than 90 percent of Syrians forced below the poverty line.

As Syria emerges from more than a decade of turmoil, the lifting of US and EU sanctions offers a rare economic lifeline — and the possibility of a new chapter in its complex relationship with the West.

 


Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group says

An injured man is treated in a hospital, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Tehran, Iran, June 21, 2025. (REUTERS)
Updated 23 June 2025
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Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group says

  • US to strike Iran ”will be a legitimate target for our armed forces,” the state-run IRNA news agency reported

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group said Monday.
The Washington-based group Human Rights Activists offered the figures, which covers the entirety of Iran. It said of those dead, it identified 380 civilians and 253 security force personnel being killed.
Human Rights Activists, which also provided detailed casualty figures during the 2022 protests over the death of Mahsa Amini, crosschecks local reports in the Islamic Republic against a network of sources it has developed in the country.
Iran has not been offering regular death tolls during the conflict and has minimized casualties in the past. On Saturday, Iran’s Health Ministry said some 400 Iranians had been killed and another 3,056 wounded in the Israeli strikes.

 

 

 


What do we know about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

Updated 23 June 2025
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What do we know about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

  • Tehran says damage limited, no radiation leaks after Trump declares Iran’s uranium-enrichment capabilities destroyed
  • Assault involved 14 bunker-buster bombs, more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles and over 125 military aircraft

DUBAI: Amid mounting speculation, the US launched air strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday.

The operation aimed to support Israel in its war against Iran — ongoing since June 13 — by crippling Tehran’s uranium enrichment capacity, according to Asharq News.

US President Donald Trump later announced that Iran’s uranium-enrichment abilities had been eliminated, warning Tehran against any “retaliatory response.” Tehran, however, described the damage as “limited” and dismissed any indications of radiation leaks.

US President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the White House in Washington on June 21, 2025, following the announcement that the US bombed nuclear sites in Iran. (POOL / AFP)

The US strikes included 14 bunker-buster bombs, more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles and over 125 military aircraft, in an operation the top US general, General Dan Caine, said was named “Operation Midnight.”

Asharq News reported that the strikes targeted three critical nuclear facilities instrumental in Iran’s nuclear fuel cycle: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear complex.

These sites span the entire fuel-enrichment chain — from raw uranium conversion, through enrichment, to the production of fuel and technical components for research reactors.

FASTFACTS:

• The first B-2 bomber was publicly displayed on Nov. 22, 1988, but its first flight was on July 17, 1989.

• The combat effectiveness of the B-2 was proved in the Balkans, where it was responsible for destroying 33 percent of all Serbian targets in the first eight weeks.

• In support of Operation Enduring Freedom, the B-2 flew one of its longest missions to date from Whiteman to Afghanistan and back.

• The B-2 completed its first-ever combat deployment in Iraq, flying 22 sorties and releasing more than 1.5 million pounds of munitions.

This handout satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on December 11, 2020 shows an overview of Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), northeast of the Iranian city of Qom. (AFP)

Fordo facility

Location and structure: Fordo is 30 kilometers northeast of Qom, embedded within a mountain at an altitude of approximately 1,750 m, with over 80 meters of rock and volcanic shielding — making it one of Iran’s most fortified sites.

Technical role: It houses two underground halls that can hold about 3,000 IR-1 centrifuges, enriching uranium up to 60 percent — a level nearing weapons -grade.

Strategic importance: It is a primary target in any military effort to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear military capability, due to its high capacity and protection.

This handout satellite image courtesy of Maxar Technologies shows Iran's shows Natanz nuclear research center in the central Iranian province of Isfahan. (AFP) 

Natanz reactor

Location and structure: Situated near Kashan in central Iran, partially buried under about 8 meters of earth with a 220meter-thick concrete roof, naturally shielded by surrounding mountainous terrain.

Technical role: Contains primary and experimental plants with over 14,000 centrifuges (IR-1, IR-2m, IR-4, IR-6), making it Iran’s main industrial enrichment hub.

Strategic importance: Responsible for producing most of Iran’s low-enriched uranium and plays a key role in centrifuge development.

This handout satellite picture provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows damage after US strikes on the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. (AFP)

Isfahan nuclear complex

Location and structure: Located south of Isfahan on an arid plateau away from populated areas, it is neither buried nor heavily fortified.

Technical role: Includes a Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF); a research reactor fuel production plant; and a metallic fuel pelletizing plant, and three research reactors.

Strategic importance: Serves as the backbone of Iran’s nuclear research and production infrastructure, supplying both Natanz and Fordo.

The Pentagon used some of the world’s most advanced aircraft for Saturday’s strikes. The B-2 Spirit is a multi-role bomber capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear munitions.

The bomber represents a major milestone in the US bomber modernization program. The B-2 brings massive firepower to bear anywhere on the globe through seemingly impenetrable defenses.

A B-2 bomber has a range over 11,000 km without refueling, capable of global reach from distant American bases. (Getty Images via AFP)

According to US officials, the bombers that carried out the Iran strikes flew for nearly 37 hours non-stop from its Missouri base, refueling in mid-air multiple times before striking in the early hours of Sunday.

A B-2 bomber offers several key advantages, primarily due to its stealth capabilities and global reach.

• A range over 11,000 km without refueling, capable of global reach from distant American bases.

• Stealth abilities such as flying-wing design and radar-absorbing materials that allow it to evade air defenses.

• It can carry both nuclear and conventional weapons, including the GBU‑57 bunker-buster bomb.

Initial reports quoted by Asharq News indicated that Fordo was hit with the GBU‑57, the most powerful US conventional bunker buster, designed for deeply buried targets like Fordo, which lies 90 meters underground. Fox News reported six bunker-busting bombs were dropped on Fordo, alongside approximately 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired at Natanz and Isfahan.

The GBU‑57 ‘Massive Ordnance Penetrator’ was designed by American military engineers to devastate deeply buried bunkers without radioactive fallout. It was the only nonnuclear weapon that could reach Iran’s hardest target.

• Weight: ~13,600 kg

• Length: 6.2 meters.

• Diameter: 0.8 meters.

• Explosive payload: 2,400 kg of high explosives.

• Guidance: GPS + inertial navigation.

* Penetration: Up to 60 meters of reinforced concrete or dense rock.

A Tomahawk cruise missile is a precision weapon that launches from ships, submarines and ground launchers and can strike targets precisely from a great distance, even in heavily defended airspace.

• Range: 1,250–2,500 km depending on variant.

• Speed: Subsonic (~880 km/h).

• Guidance: Inertial navigation, GPS, with some variants using terminal guidance (TERCOM, DSMAC).

• Warhead: ~450 kg conventional explosives.

• Launch platforms: Ships and submarines.

There has been a torrent of responses to the US move against Iran, Asharq News reported. President Trump declared the mission’s success, stating that the Fordo facility was “gone,” and Iran’s primary nuclear enrichment sites “completely and utterly destroyed.” Later on Sunday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes were an incredible and overwhelming success that have “obliterated Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.”

For its part, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted an official saying the nuclear sites had been evacuated in advance, and the damage was “not irreparable.” The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran stated there was “no risk of any radiation leak.” Iran emphasized its nuclear industry would not be halted.
 

 


Israel rejects critical EU report ahead of ministers’ meeting

Updated 22 June 2025
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Israel rejects critical EU report ahead of ministers’ meeting

  • European nations have been increasingly critical of the massive civilian toll of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military campaign against Palestinian militant group Hamas since its October 7, 2023 attack on Israeli communities

BRUSSELS: Israel has rejected a European Union report saying it may be breaching human rights obligations in Gaza and the West Bank as a “moral and methodological failure,” according to a document seen by Reuters on Sunday.
The note, sent to EU officials ahead of a foreign ministers’ meeting on Monday, said the report by the bloc’s diplomatic service failed to consider Israel’s challenges and was based on inaccurate information.
“The Foreign Ministry of the State of Israel rejects the document ... and finds it to be a complete moral and methodological failure,” the note said, adding that it should be dismissed entirely.
European nations have been increasingly critical of the massive civilian toll of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military campaign against Palestinian militant group Hamas since its October 7, 2023 attack on Israeli communities.

 

 


Palestinians waiting for humanitarian aid killed in airstrike

Updated 22 June 2025
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Palestinians waiting for humanitarian aid killed in airstrike

  • The airstrike targeted the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, according to Al-Awda Hospital, where the bodies were brought
  • It said another 22 people were wounded while waiting for aid trucks

TEL AVIV: At least four Palestinians were killed on Sunday in an Israeli airstrike and 22 were wounded while waiting for humanitarian aid, according to a local hospital.

The airstrike targeted the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, according to Al-Awda Hospital, where the bodies were brought. 

It said another 22 people were wounded while waiting for aid trucks.

Palestinian witnesses and health officials say Israeli forces have repeatedly opened fire on crowds seeking desperately needed food, killing hundreds of people in recent weeks. 

The military says it has fired warning shots at people it said suspiciously approached its forces.

Separately, World Central Kitchen, the charity run by celebrity chef Jose Andres, said it had resumed the distribution of hot meals in Gaza for the first time in six weeks after shutting down because of Israel’s blockade, which was loosened last month amid fears of famine.

Also on Sunday, the Israeli military said that it had recovered the remains of three hostages held in the Gaza Strip. 

The military identified the remains as those of Yonatan Samerano, 21; Ofra Keidar, 70; and Shay Levinson, 19. 

All three were killed during Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war. 

Hamas is still holding 50 hostages, fewer than half of them believed to be alive.

The military did not provide any details about the recovery operation, and it was unclear if the airstrike was related to it.

“The campaign to return the hostages continues consistently and is happening alongside the campaign against Iran,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement.

Kobi Samerano said in a Facebook post that his son’s remains were returned on what would have been Yonatan’s 23rd birthday.

Militants killed some 1,200 people, and abducted 251 people in the Oct. 7 attack. 

More than half the hostages have been returned in ceasefire agreements or other deals, eight have been rescued alive, and Israeli forces have recovered dozens of bodies.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 55,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which has said that women and children make up more than half of the dead. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The Hostages Families Forum, the main organization representing families of the hostages, has repeatedly called for a deal to release the remaining captives.

“Particularly against the backdrop of current military developments, we want to emphasize that bringing back the remaining 50 hostages is the key to achieving any sort of victory,” it said in a statement on Sunday.

Hamas has said it will only release the remaining hostages in return for more Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire, and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Netanyahu has rejected those terms, saying Israel will continue the war until all the hostages are returned and Hamas is defeated or disarmed and sent into exile. 

Even then, he has said Israel will maintain lasting control over Gaza and facilitate what he refers to as the voluntary emigration of much of its population, plans the Palestinians and others view as forcible expulsion.

The US, Qatar, and Egypt have been trying to broker a new ceasefire and hostage release after Israel ended a truce in March with a surprise wave of airstrikes. 

Those talks appear to have made little progress as Israel has expanded its air and ground offensive.


Twenty killed in suicide bombing at Damascus church

Updated 22 June 2025
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Twenty killed in suicide bombing at Damascus church

  • It was the first suicide bombing in Damascus since Bashar Assad was toppled
  • Syria’s interior ministry said the suicide bomber was a member of Daesh group

At least 20 people were killed and dozens injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the Mar Elias Church in the Dweila neighborhood of Syria’s capital Damascus on Sunday, health authorities and security sources said.

It was the first suicide bombing in Damascus since Bashar Assad was toppled in December. Syria’s interior ministry said the suicide bomber was a member of Daesh (Islamic State). He entered the church, opened fire and then detonated his explosive vest, a ministry statement added.

A security source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said two men were involved in the attack, including the one who blew himself up.

Daesh has been behind several attempted attacks on churches in Syria since Assad’s fall, but this was the first to succeed, another security source told Reuters.

Syria’s state news agency cited the health ministry as saying that 52 people were also injured in the blast.

A livestream from the site by Syria’s civil defense, the White Helmets, showed scenes of destruction from inside the church, including a bloodied floor and shattered pews and masonry.

Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, who led the offensive against Assad before taking over in January for a transitional phase, has repeatedly said he will protect minorities.

“We unequivocally condemn the abhorrent terrorist suicide bombing at the Mar Elias Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus, Syria,” the Greek foreign ministry said in a statement.

“We demand that the Syrian transitional authorities take immediate action to hold those involved accountable and implement measures to guarantee the safety of Christian communities and all religious groups, allowing them to live without fear.”

Daesh had previously targeted religious minorities, including a major attack on Shiite pilgrims in Sayeda Zainab in 2016 — one of the most notorious bombings during Assad’s rule.

The latest assault underscores the group’s continued ability to exploit security gaps despite the collapse of its territorial control and years of counterterrorism efforts.