LONDON: In a major shift in US foreign policy, President Donald Trump recently pledged to lift sanctions on Syria — a move that has sparked cautious optimism among Syrian entrepreneurs eyeing a long-awaited path to economic recovery after years of war and isolation.

The announcement was quickly followed by a widely publicized meeting in Riyadh on May 14 between Trump and Syria’s interim president, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, ahead of a broader summit of Gulf leaders during Trump’s regional tour, signaling a renewed emphasis on diplomatic engagement with Damascus.

Hosted by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the meeting marked the most significant international overture to Syria since the fall of Bashar Assad’s regime in December.

It also marked the first meeting between a sitting US president and a Syrian head of state in more than 20 years.

As a follow-up to Trump’s announcement, the US government on Saturday issued a six-month waiver of key Caesar Act sanctions, authorizing transactions with Syria’s interim government, central bank, and state firms. The move also clears the way for investment in energy, water, and infrastructure to support humanitarian aid and reconstruction.

Significantly, the EU announced on May 20 that it would follow the US lead and lift its own remaining sanctions on Syria. “We want to help the Syrian people rebuild a new, inclusive and peaceful Syria,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas posted on X.

Analysts believe that these developments indicate a thaw in relations, opening the door to future cooperation, particularly in rebuilding Syria’s war-ravaged economy.

“Lifting sanctions is a necessary and critical measure,” Syrian economic adviser Humam Aljazaeri told Arab News, highlighting that a key sector poised to benefit is energy, particularly electricity generation.

Syria’s energy infrastructure has been decimated by more than a decade of civil war and sanctions.

Before the conflict erupted in 2011, Syria produced about 400,000 barrels of oil a day, nearly half of which was exported, according to the Alma Research and Education Center.

Since then, oil and gas output has plunged by more than 80 percent, as fields, refineries and pipelines were destroyed or seized by warring factions, according to World Bank data.

Power generation dropped 56 percent between 2011 and 2015, the local newspaper Al-Watan reported at the time. Today, daily blackouts — sometimes lasting 20 hours — are a grim feature of life across Syria.

Beyond energy, Aljazaeri highlighted the humanitarian sector as another area in urgent need of relief. If sanctions are lifted, Syria “would enjoy a frictionless flow of programs through various UN and other international agencies,” he said.

That relief cannot come soon enough. The UN estimates that 16.7 million Syrians — roughly three-quarters of the population — will require humanitarian aid in 2025. Syria is now the world’s fourth most food-insecure country, with 14.5 million people in need of nutritional support.

Despite the scale of need, international funding remains woefully short. As of late February, only 10 percent of the $1.2 billion required for early 2025 humanitarian operations had been secured, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Even when funds are available, getting aid to those in need is an ongoing logistical challenge. Continued conflict, insecurity and decimated infrastructure — especially in the hard-hit northern and northeastern regions — make delivery slow and difficult.

Conditions are worsening. Severe drought this year threatens to wipe out up to 75 percent of Syria’s wheat crop, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, placing millions at even greater risk of hunger.

The crisis is further compounded by the return of about 1.2 million displaced Syrians between December and early 2025. Many have returned to towns and villages in ruins, overwhelming humanitarian services.

While sectors such as transport and trade could see quick wins if sanctions are eased, Aljazaeri cautioned that a full recovery would require time and clearer international policy direction.

“Sectors like infrastructure, health, education and general business are not expected to move quickly in the interim period,” he said. “These areas need a clearer international policy on sanctions and a more stable investment climate.”

Lifting sanctions is a necessary and critical measure

Humam Aljazaeri, Syrian economic adviser

For now, Aljazaeri said, the US is expected to offer only limited relief — temporary exemptions and executive licenses for 180 days — before reassessing its stance, potentially through a broader congressional review.

“This piecemeal approach won’t provide enough assurance for serious investors,” he said. “Against this backdrop, it is important to see how the government will act in the coming weeks and months to justify further international integration and a more sustainable lifting of sanctions.”

Rebuilding Syria could cost between $400 billion and $600 billion, according to Lebanese economist Nasser Saidi.

Syria’s natural resources and its regional pipeline network could attract investors, he wrote in an essay for Arabian Gulf Business Insight magazine.

However, he emphasized that tapping this potential would require dismantling the country’s “corrupt, politically controlled, state-owned enterprises and government-related entities,” and reviving a vibrant private sector.

Some positive steps, however small, are already underway. The Karam Shaar Advisory, a New Zealand-based consulting firm, noted that 97 new limited liability companies were registered in Syria between Assad’s fall in December and March 26.

While the firm called it “a modest rise in formal company formation,” it said that economic stagnation persists.

Meanwhile, efforts to rebuild shattered infrastructure are gaining traction, particularly with the Syrian diaspora poised to play a role.

“Conversations are underway about involving all stakeholders to create enabling frameworks,” Mohamed Ghazal, managing director of Startup Syria, a community-led initiative supporting Syrian entrepreneurs, told Arab News.

Government buy-in will be essential. “Think tanks and task forces are working on this, but strong cooperation from the Syrian government is crucial — and there are promising signs in this direction,” Ghazal said.

He highlighted the diaspora’s potential to drive investment, skills transfer and community development. “There is a growing recognition that the Syrian diaspora can significantly contribute to ecosystem-building,” he said.

Still, many in the diaspora remain cautious. Ghazal said that the tipping point for engagement included sustainable peace, rule of law, property rights, improved governance, reduced corruption, investment incentives, infrastructure reconstruction and a coordinated international approach.

Aljazaeri echoed those concerns, noting that lifting sanctions alone would not stabilize Syria or improve living conditions. “Issues related to law and order, reconciliation and good policies are detrimental,” he said.

“In our view, it is not inflation, corruption, or cronyism that would pose a challenge at this stage, rather ‘right economics’ or the lack of it. The Syrian administration needs to demonstrate competency in running the economy and applying the necessary reforms.

“It has the power, maybe also the will, but must have the capabilities to do the right thing,” he said, stressing that “to do that, it needs to engage more and widen the pool of dialogue and trust.”

However, the path ahead remains fraught with dangers. Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, warned on Wednesday of “the real dangers of renewed conflict and deeper fragmentation” in the war-torn country.

Since Assad’s fall, Syria has seen new waves of violence, particularly along the coast, where his Alawite sect is concentrated. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, the Islamist group that led the offensive that toppled Assad, now controls much of the area, which has been wracked by sectarian violence.

Reports of mass executions, looting and arson have heightened fears of renewed sectarian conflict. Al-Sharaa’s government is reportedly struggling to assert control, facing clashes with Druze in the south and standoffs with Kurds in the northeast.

“The Al-Sharaa government has two options in Syria; bring the minorities into government in a meaningful way so they feel invested in the future of the country and believe that they can protect themselves from within the state, or to suppress the minorities and force their compliance,” Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News.

“So far, Al-Sharaa has been using both methods. With the Alawites, he has favored the second method — force. With the Druze and Kurds, he has offered deals.”

Despite the instability, experts argue the interim government and international partners can still take steps to foster investment and recovery.

“Temporarily unlocking frozen financial assets could provide a lifeline,” Aljazaeri said. “How those resources are used will define the government’s direction.”

Ghazal said that capital is urgently needed to fuel entrepreneurship. “Transparent financial channels, encouragement of diaspora investment and attraction of impact investors could bring necessary seed and growth capital,” he said.

He noted Syria’s growing startup scene, with more than 200 active ventures. Events such as the “Hack for Syria” hackathon, held from Feb. 22–28, showcased the country’s talent and drive to solve local problems.

“However, these entrepreneurs need support to scale and access global opportunities,” he said.

Sanctions imposed on the Assad regime and inherited by Al-Sharaa’s government targeted key sectors such as banking, transport and energy.

Syria’s gross domestic product plunged from $67.5 billion in 2011 to about $21 billion in 2024, according to the World Bank.

The sanctions cut Syria off from the global financial system, froze government assets and strangled trade — especially in oil — crippling state revenues and economic activity.

This contributed to widespread poverty, with more than 90 percent of Syrians forced below the poverty line.

As Syria emerges from more than a decade of turmoil, the lifting of US and EU sanctions offers a rare economic lifeline — and the possibility of a new chapter in its complex relationship with the West.