DUBAI: As Sudan’s civil war grinds through its second year, a new chapter is unfolding — the slow and uncertain return of families to towns and cities recently recaptured by the Sudanese Armed Forces from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

But as they do so, aid agencies say, they are finding not assurances of normalcy but scenes of devastation, disease and dwindling humanitarian support.

Nowhere is this more visible than in the capital, Khartoum. Once the heart of Sudan’s political and economic life, it was among the first cities to be consumed by violence when a violent factional struggle erupted on April 15, 2023.

Following months of intense urban warfare and the occupation of the city by the RSF, Khartoum was retaken by government troops in early March.

Since then, an estimated 6,000 returnees have arrived in the city each day, according to state police. Most return with few possessions and even fewer options, compelled by necessity rather than optimism.

The International Organization for Migration estimates that roughly 400,000 people returned to Khartoum and surrounding states such as Al-Jazirah and Sennar between December and March.

The figures mark the first recorded decline — a modest 2.4 percent — in Sudan’s displaced population since the conflict began. Yet for many, the homecoming is fraught with hardship.

“Many of those returning home from abroad or from elsewhere in the country remain with critical needs, often coming back with only what can be easily carried, or returning to find their previous homes unsafe for dignified living,” Natalie Payne, program support officer in IOM’s emergency response team, told Arab News.

Much of Khartoum’s infrastructure — homes, schools, hospitals, power grids, and water treatment facilities — lies in ruins. In many neighborhoods, rubble clogs the streets, health clinics are shuttered, and there is no running water or electricity.

With no functioning schools or job opportunities, families are forced to rely on the overstretched aid system for survival.

Across Sudan, the needs are immense. Payne said IOM has recorded large-scale gaps in access to food, basic household goods, clean water, healthcare, and sanitation — not only for returnees but for communities that hosted them during the war.

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Livelihood support is also urgently needed to help people rebuild some measure of stability.

However, international agencies face mounting challenges in responding. The war has displaced more than 11.3 million people inside Sudan and forced nearly four million more to seek refuge in neighboring countries — including Egypt, Chad, and South Sudan — making it the world’s largest displacement crisis.

At the same time, the conflict has sparked what the UN calls the world’s worst hunger crisis. Famine has already been declared in 10 areas, and aid officials fear this number will grow without immediate intervention.

“Given that the fighting has destroyed health, water, and sanitation infrastructure, IOM looks to operate mobile clinics, rehabilitate primary health care centers, and rehabilitate water infrastructure at gathering sites, as well as major border entry areas, such as the Askheet and Argeen border crossing point in Northern state between Sudan and Egypt,” said Payne.

To operate in insecure or hard-to-reach areas, aid agencies partner with local organizations that have access and trust. One such partner is Sudan Zero Waste Organization, a grassroots NGO based in Khartoum, which is helping prevent disease outbreaks in communities of return.

In a statement to Arab News, SZWO said cholera cases are rising in the capital and nearby Jebel Aulia due to a lack of safe drinking water and basic sanitation.

“Many returnees are being affected by cholera as a result of contact with the affected ones due to lack of awareness, lack of clean water access, and improper hygiene practices,” the organization said.

SZWO is collaborating with NGOs and UN agencies to rehabilitate water points and hygiene facilities. It also plans to scale up community kitchens to combat food insecurity and distribute cash to the most vulnerable households.

Long term, it hopes to support local healthcare centers in newly accessible areas, though it acknowledges that needs are currently far greater than capacity.

Meanwhile, global humanitarian funding is drying up. The UN’s Humanitarian Needs Response Plan for Sudan in 2025 is seeking $4.2 billion to reach nearly 21 million people. As of mid-May, only 13.2 percent of that amount had been secured.

Humanitarians also face logistical challenges, particularly during Sudan’s rainy season, which runs from June to October. Flooded terrain makes it difficult to reach remote or newly liberated areas, many of which are in desperate need of food and medical assistance.

“Access in Sudan is restricted at different times of the year due to adverse weather conditions,” said Payne. “Shocks throughout the rainy season can lead to increased needs with limited opportunities to respond.”

And while some areas are stabilizing, violence is flaring elsewhere. Port Sudan, the de facto wartime capital and humanitarian hub, recently came under attack — prompting the UN to warn that continued hostilities there could disrupt aid operations across the country.

Other areas remain perilously unstable. West Kordofan and West Darfur have seen renewed fighting. In North Darfur, the SAF-held capital of Al-Fasher is under siege, and the nearby Zamzam and Abu Shouk displacement camps — already gripped by famine — have come under attack.

These offensives have pushed new waves of displacement, with an estimated 450,000 people recently fleeing the region.

Beyond Sudan’s borders, neighboring countries are also straining under the weight of the crisis. According to UNHCR, more than 2,000 people are crossing into Chad every day, with rising numbers arriving in Libya and Uganda.

Host countries, many of which are grappling with their own economic or security challenges, are running out of resources.

“Countries and communities receiving refugees have nothing to offer but a big heart,” Mamadou Dian Balde, UNHCR’s regional refugee coordinator for Sudan, told Arab News.

“In Eastern Chad today, we have more refugees than nationals. South Sudan, itself mired in poverty, is further struggling to meet the needs of Sudan’s refugees. If we do not put an end to this conflict, its repercussions will expand to other countries.”

Within Sudan, the influx of returning and displaced populations into devastated neighborhoods is stretching local resources to breaking point. The economic collapse, lack of essential services, and ongoing violence have created perfect conditions for a humanitarian catastrophe.

Balde said while returns from abroad have begun, the conditions are far from ideal.

“We have started seeing people returning, but these returns happen in adverse circumstances,” he said. “Some people consider going back home or some families have decided to divide the family into two, sending some members first to go and see what properties they have left.”

He added: “People need support, but it needs to be balanced because there are returns that are not in large numbers versus the large number of refugees outside the country. I don’t know whether we will still see this large number of people returning if we continue hearing about all these attacks.”

Ultimately, aid agencies say the success of any return initiative hinges on far more than food or tents. It depends on a sustained ceasefire, political will and a long-term commitment from donors to rebuild essential infrastructure — from hospitals and schools to power stations and roads.

Until then, Sudan’s returnees in Khartoum must remain in a bleak and dangerous limbo while the SAF and RSF slug it out in other parts of the country.