Polish centrist’s narrow presidential lead leaves pro-EU path in balance

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, the presidential candidate of the Civic Coalition reacts to exit polls for the first round of Poland's presidential election, in Sandomierz, Poland, on May 18, 2025. (REUTERS)
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Updated 19 May 2025
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Polish centrist’s narrow presidential lead leaves pro-EU path in balance

  • Centrist and liberal left parties score lower than expected
  • Far-right voters to play crucial role in second round

WARSAW: Polish liberals performed worse than expected in a presidential election on Sunday, an exit poll showed, as Rafal Trzaskowski from ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO) scraped to victory setting up a close fight for Warsaw’s pro-European path.
Trzaskowski placed first with 30.8 percent of the vote, ahead of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, who had 29.1 percent, according to an Ipsos exit poll. The gap was much narrower than the 4-7 percentage points seen in opinion polls before the vote.
If confirmed, the result would mean that Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will go head-to-head in a runoff vote on June 1 to determine whether Poland sticks firmly on the pro-European track set by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk or moves closer to nationalist admirers of US President Donald Trump.
“We are going for victory. I said that it would be close and it is close,” Trzaskowski told supporters. “There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us and we need determination.”




Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, the presidential candidate of the Civic Coalition reacts to exit polls for the first round of Poland's presidential election, in Sandomierz, Poland, on May 18, 2025. (REUTERS)

Nawrocki also told supporters he was confident of victory in the second round and called on the far-right to get behind him and “save Poland.”
“We have to win these elections so that there is no monopoly of power of one political group, so that there is no monolithic power in Poland,” he said.
An Opinia24 poll for private broadcaster TVN published after the first round gave Trzaskowski 46 percent in the run-off and Nawrocki 44 percent, with 10 percent of voters either undecided or refusing to say.
Far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun scored almost 22 percent combined, a historically high score.
Braun, who in 2023 used a fire extinguisher to put out Hanukkah candles in the country’s parliament, an incident that caused international outrage, won 6.2 percent of the vote according to the exit poll.
Mentzen stopped short of immediately endorsing Nawrocki.
“Voters... are not sacks of potatoes, they are not thrown from one place to another,” he said. “Each of our voters is a conscious, intelligent person and will make their own decision.”
Stanley Bill, Professor of Polish Studies at the University of Cambridge, said the combined strong showing of nationalist and far-right parties meant the results were “a disappointment for the Trzaskowski camp and put wind in the sails of Nawrocki.”
“I would add to this that the results are a significant blow to Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition,” Bill added. “Candidates representing parties that won 53.7 percent of the vote in the 2023 parliamentary elections won only 44.9 percent of the vote this evening.”
Turnout was 66.8 percent according to the exit poll.
The vote in Poland took place on the same day as a presidential run-off vote in Romania, in which centrist Bucharest mayor, Nicusor Dan, appeared on course to defeat Euroskeptic hard-right lawmaker George Simion.




Karol Nawrocki, presidential candidate for the 2025 Polish presidential election supported by Poland's national conservative Law and Justice party, wave to supporters as first exit polls following the presidential elections are announced in Gdansk, Poland, on May 18, 2025. ( AP Photo)

Presidential veto
In Poland, the president has the power to veto laws. A Trzaskowski victory in the second round would enable Tusk’s government to implement an agenda that includes rolling back judicial reforms introduced by PiS that critics say undermined the independence of the courts.
However, if Nawrocki wins, the impasse that has existed since Tusk became prime minister in 2023 would be set to continue. Until now, PiS-ally President Andrzej Duda has stymied Tusk’s efforts.
If the exit poll is confirmed, the other candidates in the first round, including Mentzen from the far-right Confederation Party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the center-right Poland 2050 and Magdalena Biejat from the Left, will be eliminated.
Two updated polls that take into account partial official results will be published later in the evening and early on Monday morning.

Role in Europe
Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland’s role as a major player at the heart of European policymaking and work with the government to roll back PiS’s judicial changes.
Nawrocki’s campaign was rocked by allegations, which he denies, that he deceived an elderly man into selling him a flat in return for a promise of care he did not provide. But Trump showed support by meeting Nawrocki in the White House.
Nawrocki casts the election as a chance to stop Tusk achieving unchecked power and push back against liberal values represented by Trzaskowski, who as Warsaw mayor was a patron of LGBT marches and took down Christian crosses from public buildings.
Unlike some other euroskeptics in central Europe, Nawrocki supports military aid to help Ukraine fend off Russia. However, he has tapped into anti-Ukrainian sentiment among some Poles weary of an influx of refugees from their neighbor.
He has said Polish citizens should get priority in public services and criticized Kyiv’s attitude to exhumations of the remains of Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War Two.


Federal agents must limit tear gas for now at protests outside Portland ICE building, judge says

Updated 04 February 2026
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Federal agents must limit tear gas for now at protests outside Portland ICE building, judge says

  • The ruling came in response to a lawsuit filed by the ACLU of Oregon on behalf of protesters and freelance journalists covering demonstrations at the flashpoint US Immigration and Customs Enforcement building

PORTLAND, Oregon: A judge in Oregon on Tuesday temporarily restricted federal officers from using tear gas at protests at the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement building in Portland, just days after agents launched gas at a crowd of demonstrators including young children that local officials described as peaceful.
US District Judge Michael Simon ordered federal officers not to use chemical or projectile munitions on people who pose no imminent threat of physical harm, or who are merely trespassing or refusing to disperse. Simon also limited federal officers from firing munitions at the head, neck or torso “unless the officer is legally justified in using deadly force against that person.”
Simon, whose temporary restraining order is in effect for 14 days, wrote that the nation “is now at a crossroads.”
“In a well-functioning constitutional democratic republic, free speech, courageous newsgathering, and nonviolent protest are all permitted, respected, and even celebrated,” he wrote. “In helping our nation find its constitutional compass, an impartial and independent judiciary operating under the rule of law has a responsibility that it may not shirk.”
Ruling follows a lawsuit filed by the ACLU of Oregon
The ruling came in response to a lawsuit filed by the ACLU of Oregon on behalf of protesters and freelance journalists covering demonstrations at the flashpoint US Immigration and Customs Enforcement building.
The suit names as defendants the Department of Homeland Security and its head Kristi Noem, as well as President Donald Trump. It argues that federal officers’ use of chemical munitions and excessive force is a retaliation against protesters that chills their First Amendment rights.
The Department of Homeland Security said federal officers have “followed their training and used the minimum amount of force necessary to protect themselves, the public, and federal property.”
“DHS is taking appropriate and constitutional measures to uphold the rule of law and protect our officers and the public from dangerous rioters,” spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin said.
Courts consider question of tear gas use
Cities across the country have seen demonstrations against the administration’s immigration enforcement surge.
Last month, a federal appeals court suspended a decision that prohibited federal officers from using tear gas or pepper spray against peaceful protesters in Minnesota who aren’t obstructing law enforcement. An appeals court also halted a ruling from a federal judge in Chicago that restricted federal agents from using certain riot control weapons, such as tear gas and pepper balls, unless necessary to prevent an immediate threat. A similar lawsuit brought by the state is now before the same judge.
The Oregon complaint describes instances in which the plaintiffs — including a protester known for wearing a chicken costume, a married couple in their 80s and two freelance journalists — had chemical or “less-lethal” munitions used against them.
In October, 83-year-old Vietnam War veteran Richard Eckman and his 84-year-old wife Laurie Eckman joined a peaceful march to the ICE building. Federal officers then launched chemical munitions at the crowd, hitting Laurie Eckman in the head with a pepper ball and causing her to bleed, according to the complaint. With bloody clothes and hair, she sought treatment at a hospital, which gave her instructions for caring for a concussion. A munition also hit her husband’s walker, the complaint says.
Jack Dickinson, who frequently attends protests at the ICE building in a chicken suit, has had munitions aimed at him while posing no threat, according to the complaint. Federal officers have shot munitions at his face respirator and at his back, and launched a tear-gas canister that sparked next to his leg and burned a hole in his costume, the complaint says.
Freelance journalists Hugo Rios and Mason Lake have similarly been hit with pepper balls and tear gassed while marked as press, the complaint says.
“Defendants must be enjoined from gassing, shooting, hitting and arresting peaceful Portlanders and journalists willing to document federal abuses as if they are enemy combatants,” the complaint states.
The owner and residents of the affordable housing complex across the street from the ICE building has filed a separate lawsuit, similarly seeking to restrict federal officers’ use of tear gas because its residents have been repeatedly exposed over the past year.
Local officials have also spoken out against use of chemical munitions. Portland Mayor Keith Wilson demanded ICE leave the city after federal officers used such munitions Saturday at what he described as a “peaceful daytime protest where the vast majority of those present violated no laws, made no threat, and posed no danger to federal forces.”
“To those who continue to work for ICE: Resign. To those who control this facility: Leave,” Wilson wrote in a statement Saturday night.
The protest was one of many similar demonstrations nationwide against the immigration crackdown in cities like Minneapolis, where in recent weeks federal agents killed two people, Alex Pretti and Renee Good.