ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economy is projected to grow by 2.7 percent in the fiscal year ending June 2025, the World Bank said on Wednesday, indicating signs of stabilization amid easing inflation and improved financial conditions.
The World Bank, in its latest report titled “Reimagining a Digital Pakistan,” said the real GDP growth is expected to benefit from a rebound in private consumption and investment, driven by easing inflation, lower interest rates and improving business confidence.
This improvement in Pakistan’s economy is supported by declining inflation, which fell to 1.5 percent in February, prompting the central bank to reduce its policy rate to 12 percent after a series of cuts totaling 1,000 basis points since June 2024.
Despite these positive indicators, the country faces significant external financing challenges, including over $22 billion in external debt repayments, highlighting the need for continued structural reforms and fiscal consolidation.
“Pakistan’s economy continues to stabilize and is expected to grow by 2.7 percent in the current fiscal year ending June 2025, up from 2.5 percent in the previous year,” the World Bank said.
It added that agricultural growth remained modest due to unfavorable weather conditions and pest outbreaks while industrial activity weakened due to rising input costs, increased taxation and cuts in government expenditure.
The report said growth in Pakistan’s services sector remained “muted” due to spillover effects from weak agricultural and industrial activity, which will make it challenging for the government to create jobs and reduce poverty.
“Pakistan’s key challenge is to transform recent gains from stabilization into economic growth that is sustainable and adequate for poverty reduction,” World Bank Country Director for Pakistan, Najy Benhassine, said.
“High-impact reforms to prioritize an efficient and progressive tax system, support a market-determined exchange rate, reduce import tariffs to boost exports, improve the business environment and streamline the public sector would signal strong reform commitment, build confidence, and attract investment.”
The report said real GDP growth was expected to rise to 3.1 percent in FY26 and 3.4 percent in FY27 due to the predicted ongoing macroeconomic stabilization and the implementation of key economic reforms.
“The April 2025 edition, Taxing Times, projects regional growth to slow to 5.8 percent in 2025 — 0.4 percentage points below October projections — before ticking up to 6.1 percent in 2026,” the World Bank said. “This outlook is subject to heightened risks, including from a highly uncertain global landscape, combined with domestic vulnerabilities including constrained fiscal space.”
World Bank projects 2.7 percent growth for Pakistan in FY2025
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World Bank projects 2.7 percent growth for Pakistan in FY2025
- Pakistan must convert stabilization into durable growth, says World Bank director
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IMF warns against policy slippage amid weak recovery as it clears $1.2 billion for Pakistan
- Pakistan rebuilt reserves, cut its deficit and slowed inflation sharply over the past one year
- Fund says climate shocks, energy debt, stalled reforms threaten stability despite recent gains
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economic recovery remains fragile despite a year of painful stabilization measures that helped pull the country back from the brink of default, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Thursday, after it approved a fresh $1.2 billion disbursement under its ongoing loan program.
The approval covers the second review of Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the first review of its climate-focused Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), bringing total disbursements since last year to about $3.3 billion.
Pakistan entered the IMF program in September 2024 after years of weak revenues, soaring fiscal deficits, import controls, currency depletion and repeated climate shocks left the economy close to external default. A smaller stopgap arrangement earlier that year helped avert immediate default, but the current 37-month program was designed to restore macroeconomic stability through strict monetary tightening, currency adjustments, subsidy rationalization and aggressive revenue measures.
The IMF’s new review shows that Pakistan has delivered significant gains since then. Growth recovered to 3 percent last year after shrinking the year before. Inflation fell from over 23 percent to low single digits before rising again after this year’s floods. The current account posted its first surplus in 14 years, helped by stronger remittances and a sharp reduction in imports. And the government delivered a primary budget surplus of 1.3 percent of GDP, a key program requirement. Foreign exchange reserves, which had dropped dangerously low in 2023, rose from US$9.4 billion to US$14.5 billion by June.
“Pakistan’s reform implementation under the EFF arrangement has helped preserve macroeconomic stability in the face of several recent shocks,” IMF Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke said in a statement after the Board meeting.
But he warned that Islamabad must “maintain prudent policies” and accelerate reforms needed for private-sector-led and sustainable growth.
The Fund noted that the 2025 monsoon floods, affecting nearly seven million people, damaging housing, livestock and key crops, and displacing more than four million, have set back the recovery. The IMF now expects GDP growth in FY26 to be slightly lower and forecasts inflation to rise to 8–10 percent in the coming months as food prices adjust.
The review warns Pakistan against relaxing monetary or fiscal discipline prematurely. It urges the State Bank to keep policy “appropriately tight,” allow exchange-rate flexibility and improve communication. Islamabad must also continue raising revenues, broadening the tax base and protecting social spending, the Fund said.
Despite the progress, Pakistan’s structural weaknesses remain severe.
Power-sector circular debt stands at about $5.7 billion, and gas-sector arrears have climbed to $11.3 billion despite tariff adjustments. Reform of state-owned enterprises has slowed, including delays in privatizing loss-making electricity distributors and Pakistan International Airlines. Key governance and anti-corruption reforms have also been pushed back.
The IMF welcomed Pakistan’s expansion of its flagship Benazir Income Support Program, which raises cash transfers for low-income families and expands coverage, saying social protection is essential as climate shocks intensify. But it warned that high public debt, about 72 percent of GDP, thin external buffers and climate exposure leave the country vulnerable if reform momentum weakens.
The Fund said Pakistan’s challenge now is to convert short-term stabilization into sustained recovery after years of economic volatility, with its ability to maintain discipline, rather than the size of external financing alone, determining the durability of its gains.
