Oil Updates — crude tumbles further as US-China trade tensions fuel recession fears

Oil plunged by 7 percent on Friday as China ramped up tariffs on US goods, escalating a trade war that has led investors to price in a higher probability of recession. Shutterstock
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Updated 07 April 2025
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Oil Updates — crude tumbles further as US-China trade tensions fuel recession fears

LONDON: Oil prices extended losses on Monday, falling around 2 percent as escalating trade tensions between the US and China stoked fears of a recession that would reduce demand for oil, while OPEC+ readies a supply increase.

Brent futures were down $1.17, or 1.78 percent, to $64.41 per barrel at 4:03 p.m. Saudi time, and US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $1.17, or 1.89 percent, at $60.82.

The Brent and WTI benchmarks’ intra-day lows of $62.51 and $58.95 respectively were their lowest since April 2021.

Oil plunged by 7 percent on Friday as China ramped up tariffs on US goods, escalating a trade war that has led investors to price in a higher probability of recession. Last week, Brent and WTI lost 10.9 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively.

“The uncertainty around tariff policy — that’s still very present. You have a number of Wall Street banks slashing economic prospects and calling out much greater probabilities of recession,” said Harry Tchilinguirian at Onyx Capital Group, adding: “That’s really what’s driving sentiment.”

Goldman Sachs on Monday forecast a 45 percent chance of recession in the US over the next 12 months and made downward revisions to its oil price projections. Citi and Morgan Stanley also cut their Brent outlooks. JPMorgan said last week that it sees a 60 percent probability of recession in the US and globally.

Saudi Arabia on Sunday announced sharp cuts to crude oil prices for Asian buyers, dropping the price in May to the lowest level in four months.

“It’s a demonstration of the belief that tariffs will hurt oil demand,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga. “It goes to show the Saudis, just like every man and his dog, expect the supply and demand balance to be affected and they are forced to cut their official selling prices.”

Responding to US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, China said on Friday that it would impose additional levies of 34 percent on American goods, confirming investor fears that a full-blown global trade war has begun.

Imports of oil, gas and refined products were given exemptions from Trump’s sweeping new tariffs, but the policies could stoke inflation, slow economic growth and intensify trade disputes, weighing on oil prices.

Adding to the downward momentum, the OPEC+ group — comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies — decided to advance plans for output increases. The group now aims to return 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, up from the previously planned 135,000 bpd.

At the weekend, OPEC+ ministers emphasized the need for full compliance with oil output targets and called for over-producers to submit plans by April 15 to compensate for pumping too much.


Flynas adjusted profit rises 28% to $148m

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Flynas adjusted profit rises 28% to $148m

RIYADH: Saudi low-cost carrier flynas posted a 28 percent increase in adjusted annual profit for 2025, as passenger growth and fleet expansion supported earnings despite a statutory loss caused by one-off expenses linked to its public listing.  

Adjusted net profit reached SR556 million ($148.1 million), compared with SR434 million a year earlier, according to a filing on Saudi Exchange. 

The airline reported a statutory net loss of SR527 million, versus a net profit of SR434 million in 2024, after booking SR1.08 billion in non-recurring IPO-related charges, including a one-time employee share-based payment expense and listing fees. 

The Saudi carrier last year raised SR4.1 billion in what marked one of the region’s largest aviation listings. 

The strong financial results of flynas come as a contributor to Saudi Arabia’s goal to establish itself as a global tourist and business destination. The Kingdom aims to attract over 150 million visitors by the end of this decade. 

Bander Al-Mohanna, CEO and managing director, said: “2025 was a year of disciplined execution and strategic progress for flynas. Despite external headwinds, including aircraft availability constraints and regional disruptions, we stayed focused on operational reliability, cost discipline, and network expansion.” 

He added: “Our low-cost model continues to prove resilient, enabling us to serve growing demand for affordable travel while maintaining margin discipline.” 

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 15 percent year on year to SR2.51 billion, with margin expanding by 3.2 percentage points to 32.1 percent, reflecting operating scale and continued cost discipline. Total revenue rose 4 percent to SR7.84 billion. 

The company reported revenue through three distinct operating segments. The low-cost carrier segment, which accounted for 90 percent of total revenue, generated SR7.09 billion, up 4 percent from a year earlier, supported by route expansion and higher operating capacity. 

Hajj and Umrah revenue remained broadly stable at SR584 million compared to SR587 million in 2024. General aviation revenue declined 6 percent to SR174 million, contributing 2 percent of total revenue. 

Passenger traffic grew 7 percent to 15.8 million, while available seat kilometers increased by 11 percent, driven mainly by international expansion and capacity deployment across key markets. 

Cost of revenue increased 4 percent to SR6.36 billion, broadly in line with revenue growth. Selling, general, and administrative expenses remained stable at SR510 million. 

Sale-and-leaseback gains totaled SR76 million, compared with SR131 million in 2024.  

The reduction reflects a deliberate strategic shift initiated in 2025, whereby the company began financing a portion of its aircraft directly as part of its long-term strategy to enhance unit cost efficiency.  

“This marks the implementation of a more balanced fleet funding model, combining owned and leased aircraft, and is expected to enhance long-term capital efficiency and support structural CASK improvement,” the statement said. 

The fleet expanded to 71 aircraft by year-end, including eight A320neo deliveries during the year and five wet-leased aircraft added to support network growth and mitigate supply chain constraints.  

In 2025, flynas introduced 25 new routes and 12 destinations across 9 countries, focusing on wider network coverage and expanding international presence to a total of 80 destinations across 38 countries. 

Total assets increased 27 percent to SR17.22 billion, while total equity more than doubled to SR3.55 billion, primarily attributable to higher retained earnings and the recognition of IPO proceeds. 

Flynas’s Chief Financial Officer, Ramzi Zaroubi, said: “We delivered margin expansion across the board, with adjusted EBITDA margin improving to 32.1 percent and adjusted net profit margin reaching 7.1 percent, ahead of our guidance.”

He added: “Beyond the income statement, we made important strides in strengthening the balance sheet, ending the year with significantly enhanced liquidity of SR4.1 billion in cash and equivalents and reducing net debt by 27 percent year on year.” 

Looking ahead, flynas said it remains focused on sustainable growth through scaling capacity efficiently, deepening presence in key markets, and enhancing guest experience.  

In early 2026, the company announced the establishment of a new operational base at Abha International Airport — its fifth in Saudi Arabia — and signed a term sheet to establish flynas Syria, a new low-cost carrier platform, subject to regulatory approvals.