OECD predicts 3.8% economic growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025

Saudi Arabia’s inflation stability is noteworthy, especially within the context of the OECD’s broader inflation projections. File
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Updated 17 March 2025
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OECD predicts 3.8% economic growth for Saudi Arabia in 2025

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s economy is poised for substantial growth, with its gross domestic product projected to increase from 1.2 percent in 2024 to 3.8 percent in 2025.

The projection by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development comes amid global economic uncertainties, as many advanced economies are expected to face sluggish growth due to escalating trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and inflationary pressures.

This forecast signals a turnaround for the Kingdom, positioning it as one of the fastest-growing economies within the G20 in the coming years. While Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth is expected to moderate slightly to 3.6 percent in 2026, global GDP growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026.

Stable inflation

The OECD report also forecasts that Saudi Arabia’s inflation will remain low and stable, projected at 1.9 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026. This stands in contrast to the higher inflation rates seen in many major economies, particularly those facing trade-related disruptions and rising labor costs.

The Kingdom’s inflation stability is noteworthy, especially within the context of the OECD’s broader inflation projections. The report highlights that G20 headline inflation is expected to stay at 3.8 percent in 2025 and 3.2 percent in 2026, with core inflation remaining above target in several advanced economies, including the US.

Oil market and OPEC+ production strategy

A key factor driving Saudi Arabia’s economic performance is its oil sector, which continues to be a vital growth pillar despite the country’s ongoing efforts to diversify its economy under Vision 2030.

The OECD report noted that OPEC+ plans to gradually “unwind production curbs” starting in April 2025, a move that could have significant implications for global oil prices.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s efforts to boost non-oil revenue sources under Vision 2030—through investments in technology, tourism, and infrastructure—are helping to strengthen economic resilience amid market volatility. However, the OECD also cautioned that geopolitical risks and rising protectionist policies in global trade could disrupt energy markets, potentially leading to price fluctuations.

Global economic outlook

Beyond Saudi Arabia, the OECD painted a complex outlook for the global economy. “The global economy has shown real resilience, with growth remaining steady and inflation trending downward. However, signs of weakness have emerged, driven by heightened policy uncertainty,” said OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann.

Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.2 percent in 2024 to 3.1 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026, with many advanced economies experiencing lower-than-expected growth due to increased trade barriers, inflationary pressures, and policy uncertainty.

 

 

The US economy is expected to see growth slow from 2.8 percent in 2024 to 2.2 percent in 2025 and 1.6 percent in 2026, as higher interest rates and trade tensions dampen investment and consumer spending. Similarly, the eurozone’s economy is projected to grow by just 1 percent in 2025 and 1.2 percent in 2026. China’s economy is also expected to decelerate, with growth slowing from 4.8 percent in 2025 to 4.4 percent in 2026.

Trade fragmentation and geopolitical risks

A key concern highlighted by the OECD is the growing rise of trade barriers and their potential impact on global economic stability. “Increasing trade restrictions will contribute to higher costs for both production and consumption. It remains essential to maintain a well-functioning, rules-based international trading system and keep markets open,” Cormann added.

The US has raised tariffs on imports from China by 20 percentage points, prompting retaliatory actions from China. In addition, higher tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other goods are expected to disrupt supply chains and increase production costs globally.

The OECD warned that such trade fragmentation could slow global growth and push inflation higher, particularly in economies heavily dependent on international trade. The report also noted that if trade tensions escalate further, global GDP could decline by an additional 0.3 percent over the next three years, with particularly severe effects on Canada, Mexico, and key European economies.

Monetary policy and inflation pressures

The OECD’s outlook also indicated that inflation remains a significant concern in many economies. While inflation is expected to moderate, it is likely to stay above central bank targets in key economies like the US, the eurozone, and the UK through 2026.

“Central banks should remain vigilant given heightened uncertainty and the potential for higher trade costs to push up wage and price pressures. Provided inflation expectations remain well-anchored, and trade tensions do not intensify further, policy rate reductions should continue in economies where underlying inflation is projected to moderate or remain subdued,” the report stated.

For emerging markets, inflation presents a mixed picture. Brazil and South Africa are expected to face persistent inflationary pressures, while India and Indonesia may see inflation remain relatively contained. Countries like Turkiye and Argentina, which have dealt with extreme inflation in recent years, are projected to see a sharp decline in inflation rates as fiscal and monetary tightening measures take effect.

The role of AI, structural reforms

Beyond trade and monetary policy, the OECD report emphasized the importance of structural reforms and digital transformation in enhancing long-term economic resilience.

“Governments can help by ensuring the availability of high-speed digital infrastructure, maintaining open and competitive markets, and providing opportunities for workers to enhance their skills,” the report noted.

OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Santos Pereira highlighted that AI is poised to drive significant labor productivity growth over the next decade, with even greater potential when combined with advancements in robotics.

“Yet, the gains from AI may diminish if policies do not facilitate higher adoption rates and support labor reallocation,” Pereira warned.

Navigating uncertainty

The OECD called for stronger international cooperation to prevent further trade fragmentation and urged governments to adopt a balanced approach to fiscal and monetary policies. It cautioned that excessive tightening of monetary policy could unnecessarily slow growth, while failing to manage inflation could lead to additional economic disruptions.

The report’s key policy recommendations emphasized the importance of avoiding further tariff escalations and seeking diplomatic trade solutions. It also highlighted the need for investments in AI and digital transformation to boost productivity, while maintaining cautious monetary policies to ensure inflation remains under control. Additionally, the report stressed the importance of encouraging structural reforms to build more resilient and dynamic labor markets.


US and Qatar sign agreements worth $1.2 trillion during Trump’s visit to Doha

Updated 42 min 45 sec ago
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US and Qatar sign agreements worth $1.2 trillion during Trump’s visit to Doha

  • Deals include massive order from Qatar Airways to buy 210 Boeing jets for $96 billion
  • Trump urges Qatar to use its influence over Iran to stop proxy wars as condition for nuclear deal

DOHA: US President Donald Trump and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani agreed deals in Doha on Wednesday that the White House said were worth $1.2 trillion, including a massive order from Qatar Airways to buy Boeing aircraft.
Qatar Airways will buy up to 210 Boeing 777X and 787 widebody jets for $96 billion in a coup for both Trump and the planemaker.

Trump said he and Sheikh Tamim also discussed Iran, the Russia-Ukraine war, strengthening ties in defense, investment, energy, education and cybersecurity. They also touched on preparations for the FIFA World Cup 2026 and the 2028 Olympics, which will be hosted in the US.

The two leaders also witnessed the signing of a joint declaration of cooperation between the two governments, and letters of offer and acceptance for MQ-9B drones and the FS-LIDS anti-drone system, Qatar News Agency reported.
President Trump thanked the emir for Qatar’s warm hospitality and described Sheikh Tamim as a longtime friend and trusted partner. “We always had a very special relationship,” he said of the emir.
Senior Qatari ministers and US cabinet officials, including the secretaries of state, defense, treasury, commerce and energy, also attended the talks and signing ceremony.

Talks with Iran
Trump also urged Qatar to use its influence over Iran to persuade the country’s leadership to reach an agreement with the US to dial back its rapidly advancing nuclear program.
Qatar over the years has played the role of intermediary between the US and Iran and its proxies, including during talks with Tehran-backed Hamas as its 19-month war with Israel grinds on.
“I hope you can help me with the Iran situation,” Trump said during remarks at the state dinner. “It’s a perilous situation, and we want to do the right thing.”
Trump wants Iran to stop backing militant proxy groups.
Earlier, before he left Saudi Arabia for Qatar, Trump said he wanted to reach an agreement with Iran on its nuclear program, but Tehran must end its support for proxy militias throughout the Middle East.
Iran “must stop sponsoring terror, halt its bloody proxy wars, and permanently and verifiably cease pursuit of nuclear weapons,” Trump told Gulf leaders at a GCC summit in Riyadh. “They cannot have a nuclear weapon.”
The president’s demand for Iran to cease support of Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen comes as Tehran’s proxy network faces significant setbacks. 
Hezbollah is severely weakened after a war with Israel in which many of its leaders were killed, and it lost a key ally with the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, a conduit for Iran to send arms. 

Terror-free future
Trump said the moment was ripe “for a future free from the grip of Hezbollah terrorists.”
In Gaza, Hamas has been militarily decimated by an Israeli offensive since October 2023. 
Only the Houthis in Yemen have emerged relatively unscathed from an American bombing campaign that ended last week with a unilateral US ceasefire.
The US and Iran have had four rounds of nuclear talks since last month. 
Saudi Arabia fully supported the talks and hoped for positive results, Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said on Wednesday. 
Earlier, the leaders of the US and Syria met face-to-face for the first time in 25 years. 
Ahmad Al-Sharaa, interim president of the Syrian Arab Republic, flew to Riyadh a day after Trump said he would lift sanctions on the Syrian economy after discussions with Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman.

 

 

The crown prince joined Trump and Al-Sharaa for the meeting. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took part via video conference. 
Syria’s Foreign Ministry hailed the meeting as “historic,” and said the two leaders had discussed “avenues for Syrian-American partnership in counterterrorism efforts” and the importance of supporting reconstruction.
There was elation on the streets of Damascus and other cities, with cheering, dancing and celebratory gunfire as Syrians rejoiced in their relief from US sanctions.
“These sanctions were imposed on Assad, but ... now that Syria has been liberated, there will be a positive impact on industry, it’ll boost the economy and encourage people to return,” said Aleppo soap factory owner Zain Al-Jabali, 54.

US President Donald Trump, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg at the Royal Palace in Doha on Wednesday. (AFP)

Big win for Trump and Boeing
The Qatar Airways deal for Boeing 777X and 787 planes with GE Aerospace engines is a win for Trump on a high-profile visit to the region, even though it will be years before the jets are delivered.
The sale is also a boost for Boeing and its biggest engine supplier at a time when large versions of rival Airbus’ A350, powered by Rolls-Royce engines, have struggled with maintenance problems from operating in the world’s hottest climates, including the Gulf region. The agreement is for 160 firm orders — 130 787s and 30 777Xs — and options for another 50 of the two long-haul airplanes, according to Boeing. The company’s shares rose 0.6 percent in New York, while GE Aerospace stock gained 0.7 percent.
For the 787s, Qatar opted for GE Aerospace’s GEnx engines rather than Rolls-Royce’s Trent 1000, according to the administration. GE Aerospace’s GE9X is the only engine option for the 777X. The deal for 400 GE engines is the largest ever for GE Aerospace, the company’s CEO Larry Culp said in a statement, a point echoed by Qatar Airways, which told Reuters in March that it was working on a large order for widebody jets.
Trump and Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani joined a signing ceremony with Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg and Qatar Airways CEO Badr Mohammed Al-Meer. Trump said Ortberg told him it was the largest jet order in Boeing’s history. 
The 777X is still in development and slated to start deliveries in 2026, six years behind schedule. Qatar Airways already has orders for 94 777Xs. Its competitor, Emirates, has orders for 205 777Xs. The two airlines were among the first customers when Boeing launched the program in 2013.
Boeing’s order book included 521 777X orders and 828 787 orders as of April 30, according to the company. 

(With Agencies)


Aramco signs 34 agreements worth $90bn with US firms to boost innovation, growth

Updated 14 May 2025
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Aramco signs 34 agreements worth $90bn with US firms to boost innovation, growth

RIYADH: Saudi energy giant Aramco signed 34 agreements and memorandums of understanding worth approximately $90 billion with major US companies, as it seeks to advance its long-term strategy and strengthen innovation.

Signed on the sidelines of the Saudi-US Investment Forum, the agreements span a wide array of sectors including liquefied natural gas, chemicals, and fuels, as well as artificial intelligence and emission-reduction technologies. 

The forum was held on the occasion of the US President Donald Trump’s state visit to the Kingdom.

In a statement, the energy company’s president and CEO, Amin Nasser, said the announcements “show the breadth and depth of Aramco’s long history of partnerships with US companies since the first discovery of oil in the Kingdom more than 90 years ago.” 

He added: “Our US-related activities have evolved over the decades, and now include multidisciplinary R&D, the Motiva refinery in Port Arthur, startup investments, potential collaborations in LNG, and ongoing procurement.”

In the downstream sector, Aramco inked deals with Honeywell UOP and Motiva for technology licensing and an aromatics project at the Port Arthur refinery, respectively.

It also signed agreements with Afton Chemical to develop chemical fuel additives, and with ExxonMobil to evaluate a major upgrade to the SAMREF refinery, potentially transforming it into a world-class integrated petrochemical complex.

For upstream developments, Aramco’s deals included a memorandum with Sempra Infrastructure linked to the Port Arthur LNG 2 project, a collaboration with Woodside Energy to explore global opportunities including lower-carbon ammonia, and a final agreement with NextDecade for the long-term purchase of 1.2 million tonnes per annum of LNG from the Rio Grande LNG Facility.

Technology and innovation were at the heart of several agreements. A strategic framework was signed with Amazon Web Services to cooperate on digital transformation and lower-carbon initiatives.

With NVIDIA, Aramco agreed to establish advanced industrial AI infrastructure, an AI Hub, and training programs. Qualcomm also signed an MoU with Aramco Digital to explore connectivity solutions using Aramco’s 450 MHz 5G network.

Aramco’s procurement arm reinforced its links with major US service and equipment providers, including SLB, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, and Emerson, while partnerships in asset management and finance were inked with PIMCO, State Street, and Wellington, as well as BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, among others.

Additional agreements included a plan with Guardian Glass to localize specialty glass manufacturing in the Kingdom.

These deals reflect Aramco’s commitment to fostering industrial development, technological advancement, and long-term partnerships that align with its strategic vision and the Kingdom’s broader economic diversification goals.


Saudi wealth fund signs $11bn deals to boost financial markets

Updated 14 May 2025
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Saudi wealth fund signs $11bn deals to boost financial markets

  • PIF partners with Franklin Templeton, Neuberger Berman, and BlackRock to accelerate Vision 2030 goals

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has signed a series of landmark agreements with leading US financial institutions worth a combined potential investment of up to $11 billion, signaling a major push to strengthen and diversify the Kingdom’s capital markets as part of Vision 2030.

The deals — sealed with Franklin Templeton, Neuberger Berman, and BlackRock — aim to boost local asset management capabilities, deepen investor participation, and enhance the Kingdom’s global financial standing.

These agreements were signed during US President Donald Trump’s visit to Riyadh, underscoring the deepening economic ties between the two nations and the Kingdom’s growing role as a regional and global financial hub.

Agreement with Franklin Templeton

In a major step toward diversifying Saudi Arabia’s investment landscape, PIF signed a memorandum of understanding with Franklin Templeton to jointly invest up to $5 billion. The collaboration will span Saudi equities and fixed income strategies across both public and private markets.

According to a joint statement, the agreement focuses not only on capital deployment but also on knowledge transfer, talent development, and innovation within the local asset management sector.

The move aligns with PIF’s broader agenda to partner with top global financial institutions and expand its international investment portfolio.

Neuberger Berman joins forces with PIF

In a separate deal, the wealth fund has partnered with Neuberger Berman to launch a Riyadh-based multi-asset investment platform with up to $6 billion in assets. The US firm, which manages $515 billion globally, will establish operations in Saudi Arabia — pending regulatory approval — covering equities, fixed income, and private market strategies.

George Walker, CEO of Neuberger Berman, emphasized the firm’s commitment to building local teams, promoting education, and aligning with regional investment priorities under Vision 2030. The agreement is expected to attract further international interest and bolster the Kingdom’s standing as a global investment destination.

Collaboration with BlackRock

Building on an existing relationship, PIF and BlackRock have signed a non-binding letter of intent to deepen their collaboration via a new index mandate focused on Saudi equities. The initiative, announced at the Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh, will be managed through BlackRock’s Riyadh Investment Management platform, established in 2024.

The expanded partnership underscores PIF’s confidence in BlackRock’s capabilities and highlights efforts to diversify investment offerings and advance Saudi Arabia’s capital market ecosystem. While the agreement is subject to regulatory and internal approvals, it marks a significant step in positioning Saudi equities on the global stage.

These agreements follow a series of high-profile engagements aimed at strengthening Saudi-US economic ties, including recent discussions around broader investment flows.

Collectively, the new partnerships reinforce the PIF’s role as a catalyst for financial transformation, in line with the national agenda to diversify the economy and promote sustainable growth.

PIF’s latest annual report revealed a 390 percent surge in assets under management since the 2016 launch of Vision 2030 — underscoring the rapid pace of institutional development and global investor interest in the Kingdom.


ACWA Power expands Saudi-US energy cooperation with $500m deals

Updated 14 May 2025
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ACWA Power expands Saudi-US energy cooperation with $500m deals

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power has signed new agreements worth $500 million with several US firms, further solidifying its strategic ties with the country and expanding the scope of joint energy projects to over $6 billion.

The memorandums of understanding were formalized during the Saudi-US Investment Forum held in Riyadh, underlining ACWA Power’s ongoing commitment to leveraging international partnerships in support of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 goals and its net zero target by 2060.

The agreements come in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, during which he was accompanied by a delegation of leading business figures.

“These strategic partnerships with leading American companies are a direct investment in the future of Saudi Arabia, aligning with the key objectives of Vision 2030,” said Raad Al-Saady, vice chairman and managing director of ACWA Power.

He added: “ACWA Power is committed to leveraging American innovation and expertise to accelerate the development of renewable energy solutions, creating jobs, diversifying the economy, and supporting a sustainable future for the Kingdom.”

Among the highlights of the new collaborations, ACWA Power will work on deploying advanced tracker technologies for photovoltaic solar energy projects, with the aim of reducing energy costs and boosting local production.

“ACWA Power’s strategy is driven by value-driven partnerships like these. Access to cutting-edge technology and expertise is critical as we diversify our portfolio, expand into new markets, and achieve our objectives in meeting net zero by 2050,” said Marco Arcelli, CEO of ACWA Power.

The Saudi-listed company also signed a deal with GE Vernova to test innovations in combined-cycle gas turbine projects and electricity transmission and distribution systems within the Kingdom.

A separate agreement was signed with Baker Hughes to pilot innovations in green hydrogen production.

The collaboration aims to leverage the US-based firm’s technical expertise in developing electrolysis solutions that enhance the safety and efficiency of hydrogen generation.

The partnership may also pave the way for in-Kingdom manufacturing, fostering a local ecosystem for innovation in green hydrogen technologies.

In addition, ACWA Power announced a partnership with KBR for the execution of large-scale projects. 

The agreement will utilize the US firm’s ammonia processing technology and engineering capabilities, alongside its program management and operational expertise to ensure project success.

Another agreement involves Energy Recovery, focusing on research into energy-saving operation technologies in seawater desalination.


Oman, Japan sign deal to tackle environmental issues

Updated 14 May 2025
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Oman, Japan sign deal to tackle environmental issues

RIYADH: Oman’s Environment Authority and Japan’s Ministry of the Environment have signed a bilateral agreement aimed at enhancing cooperation on environmental issues and advancing sustainable development, according to the Oman News Agency.

The agreement seeks to strengthen the implementation of international environmental treaties, including the Paris Agreement, and lays the groundwork for a collaborative framework based on equality, reciprocity, and mutual benefit.

To combat climate change, Oman has launched a national plan aiming for zero-carbon neutrality by 2050. The strategy includes a comprehensive transition of the energy sector toward renewable sources, enhanced energy efficiency, and significant emission reductions across all sectors.

The pact was signed by Abdullah bin Ali Al-Amri, chairman of Oman’s Environment Authority, and Matsuzawa Yutaka, vice-minister for Global Environmental Affairs at Japan’s Ministry of the Environment. The signing ceremony was attended by Japan’s Ambassador to Oman Kiyoshi Serizawa.

Key areas of cooperation outlined in the agreement include climate change mitigation and adaptation, waste management, biodiversity conservation through nature-based solutions, and environmental monitoring.

The two nations also agreed to collaborate on training programs, expert exchanges, scientific research, and joint initiatives. The partnership will promote knowledge sharing and foster dialogue on both current and emerging environmental challenges.