In Ukraine, a potential arms-for-minerals deal inspires hope and skepticism

Miners extract ilmenite, a key element used to produce titanium, at an open pit mine in the central region of Kirovohrad, Ukraine, on b. 12, 2025. (AP)
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Updated 17 February 2025
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In Ukraine, a potential arms-for-minerals deal inspires hope and skepticism

  • Ukraine has vast reserves of ilmenite — a key element used to produce titanium — along the country’s embattled east
  • Much of it, as with all of Ukraine’s critical minerals industry, is underdeveloped because of war as well as onerous state policies

KIROVOHRAD REGION, Ukraine: The mineral ilmenite is extracted from mounds of sand deep in the earth and refined using a method that summons the force of gravity, resulting in a substance that glimmers like a moonlit sky.
Ukraine boasts vast reserves of ilmenite — a key element used to produce titanium — in the heavy mineral sands that stretch for miles along the country’s embattled east.
Much of it, as with all of Ukraine’s critical minerals industry, is underdeveloped because of war as well as onerous state policies.
That is poised to change if US President Donald Trump’s administration agrees to a deal with Ukraine to exchange critical minerals for continued American military aid.
In the central region of Kirovohrad, the ilmenite open-pit mine is a canyon of precious deposits that its owner is keen to develop with US companies. But many unknowns stand in the way of turning these riches into profit: cost, licensing terms and whether such a deal will be underpinned by security guarantees.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday at the Munich Security Conference that he did not permit his ministers to sign a mineral resource agreement with the US because the current version is not “ready to protect us, our interests.”
Ukrainian businessmen with knowledge of the minerals industry also privately expressed skepticism about whether a deal is viable. The capital-intensive industry is unlikely to yield results in years, if not decades, as geological data is either limited or classified. Many question what conditions American companies are willing to risk to build up the industry and whether existing Ukrainian policies that have so far deterred local businessmen will accommodate foreign investors.
“The main thing we can gain is certain security guarantees obtained through economic means, so that someone stronger than us has an interest in protecting us,” said Andriy Brodsky, CEO of Velta, a leading titanium mining company in Ukraine.
The question of security guarantees
A deal, which would essentially barter one resource for another, could help strengthen Kyiv’s relationship with the Trump administration.
The United States is a major consumer of critical raw earth minerals such as lithium and gallium, two elements that Ukraine has in proven reserves. Trump has specifically mentioned rare earth elements, but these are not well researched, industry experts told The Associated Press.
Titanium, used in aerospace, defense and industry, is also high in demand and the US is a leading importer of ilmenite. Sourcing the minerals from Ukraine would reduce future reliance on Russia and China.
In exchange, Kyiv would continue to receive a steady stream of American weaponry that offers leverage against Moscow and without which Ukraine cannot ward off future Russian aggression in the event of a ceasefire.
The question of security guarantees is a sticking point for companies, Ukrainian businessmen and analysts said. A senior Ukrainian official, speaking anonymously to describe private conversations, told the AP that US companies expressed interest in investing but needed to ensure their billions will be safeguarded in the event of renewed conflict. But once invested in Ukraine, the presence of American business interests alone might act as a guarantee, Brodsky said.
“If this process starts, it will continue,” Brodsky said. “Once the investment figures exceed hundreds of billions, the Americans, a highly pragmatic people, will protect their profits earned on Ukrainian soil. They will defend their interests against Russia, China, Korea, Iran and anyone else. They will protect what they consider theirs.”
Growing American interest
Brodsky, who just returned from a trip to Washington and New York, said the conversation among US businesses is changing in Kyiv’s favor.
“A lot of people in very serious and wealthy offices are saying that now, we — our country and my company — are in the right place and doing exactly what needs to be done at this moment,” he said.
Velta has worked with American partners for many years. Brodsky has begun negotiating with companies he believes could be a partner in the event of a deal.
Ukraine has never been attractive to foreign investors because of prohibitive government policies — not offering incentives to attract foreigners, for instance. Brodsky believes that international companies will need to pair up with local partners to flourish.
American companies have several ways to enter the market, explained Ksenia Orynchak, director of the National Association of Extractive Industries of Ukraine, but would require traversing “certain circles of hell” in Ukraine’s bureaucracy. Teaming up with an existing Ukrainian license owner is possibly the most straightforward.
She said more exploration is needed in the field and hinted existing data may have been acquired through ulterior motives. Under the Soviet system, geologists stood to gain if they claimed to have found large reserves.
“Someone did it so that Moscow would praise Ukrainian geologists or Soviet geologists,” she said.
She advises American investors to lower existing thresholds for exploration because bidding can take place in areas where reserves are only presumed, not proven.
“I believe, and so does the expert community, that this is not right. In fact, we are selling a pig in a poke,” she said.
A historically untapped sector
At the extraction site, the air is dense with ilmenite dust. When the afternoon sun’s rays pierce the darkened space, they sparkle and dance in the air. The soot covers the faces of workers who spend hours inside every day extracting the precious material from sand.
The gravity separation method removes unwanted elements in the ore and water separated from the mineral rains down through metal-lined floors. Workers are used to getting wet and don’t bat an eye. Titanium is developed from the purified ilmenite at a different facility.
Velta began in the form of an expired license for geological exploration and a business plan for $7 million when Brodsky acquired the company. It would be eight years and many millions more invested before he could even think about production capacity.
The deal also does not factor in a crucial element that could prove challenging later: The position of Ukrainian people themselves. According to the Constitution, the subsoil where extraction would take place belongs to Ukraine.
“I am very afraid that they (Ukrainian people) already had disapproving reviews, that everything is being given away. Who allowed him? He had no right? And so on,” Orynchak said.
Those sensitivities were echoed among workers at the Velta mine. Speaking anonymously to voice his true thoughts, one said: “If you have a vegetable garden in your home, do you invite a foreigner to take it?”
The high risk often is a key reason that some Ukrainian businessmen privately express skepticism about the deal.
When one businessman of a major group of companies heard about the arms-for-minerals deal, his first impression was: “This is just hot air,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity to speak freely about his thoughts. “This is a very capital intensive industry. Just to take ground from an open pit will cost you billions. Not millions, billions.”


Governor of Turkiye’s Ankara extends protest ban until April 1

Updated 25 March 2025
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Governor of Turkiye’s Ankara extends protest ban until April 1

ANKARA: The governor of Ankara on Tuesday said he was extending the ban on any form of protest in the Turkish capital until April 1.
The ban would be in place “until 23:59 on April 1,” the statement said.
Protest bans are also in place in Istanbul and the western city of Izmir, but they have been largely ignored with mass demonstrations taking place across the country since the March 19 arrest and subsequent jailing of the country’s main opposition figure.


US-Russia talks on Ukraine ‘useful,’ will continue: Russian negotiator

Updated 25 March 2025
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US-Russia talks on Ukraine ‘useful,’ will continue: Russian negotiator

  • Grigory Karasin: ‘We talked about everything, it was an intense dialogue, not easy, but very useful for us and the Americans’
  • ‘We will continue doing it, adding in the international community, above all the United Nations and certain countries’

MOSCOW: A Russian negotiator said on Tuesday that Moscow would continue “useful” talks with the United States over the Ukraine conflict and would aim to involve the UN and other countries.
“We talked about everything, it was an intense dialogue, not easy, but very useful for us and the Americans,” Grigory Karasin, told the state TASS news agency, adding that “lots of problems were discussed.”
“Of course we are far from solving everything, from being in agreement on all points, but it seems that this type of discussion is very timely,” he said.
“We will continue doing it, adding in the international community, above all the United Nations and certain countries,” Karasin said.
He spoke a day after the US and Russian teams held 12 hours of talks in a luxury hotel in Saudi Arabia.
President Donald Trump is pushing for a rapid end to the three-year war and hopes the latest round of talks in the Saudi capital will pave the way for a breakthrough.
Earlier, TASS cited a source saying that a joint statement on the talks would be published on Tuesday.
The Ukrainian negotiating team was staying in Riyadh for another day to meet with US representatives, a source in the delegation told Suspilne news, with another source also telling AFP a second meeting was likely – a sign that progress may have been made.


White House mistakenly shares Yemen war plans with a journalist at The Atlantic

Updated 25 March 2025
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White House mistakenly shares Yemen war plans with a journalist at The Atlantic

  • Atlantic’s editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg said he was unexpectedly invited on March 13 to an encrypted chat group on Signal
  • In the group, national security adviser Mike Waltz tasked his deputy with setting up a “tiger team” to coordinate US action against Houthis

WASHINGTON: Top Trump administration officials mistakenly disclosed war plans in a messaging group that included a journalist shortly before the US attacked Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, the White House said on Monday, following a first-hand account by The Atlantic.
Democratic lawmakers swiftly blasted the misstep, saying it was a breach of US national security and a violation of law that must be investigated by Congress.
The Atlantic’s editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg said in a report on Monday that he was unexpectedly invited on March 13 to an encrypted chat group on the Signal messaging app called the “Houthi PC small group.” In the group, national security adviser Mike Waltz tasked his deputy Alex Wong with setting up a “tiger team” to coordinate US action against the Houthis.
National Security Council spokesperson Brian Hughes said the chat group appeared to be authentic.

HIGHLIGHTS

• Democratic lawmakers demand investigation into security breach

• Use of Signal app for sensitive info deemed illegal by Democrats

• Defense Secretary Hegseth said to call European allies freeloaders

US President Donald Trump launched an ongoing campaign of large-scale military strikes against Yemen’s Houthis on March 15 over the group’s attacks against Red Sea shipping, and he warned Iran, the Houthis’ main backer, that it needed to immediately halt support for the group.
Hours before those attacks started, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth posted operational details about the plan in the messaging group, “including information about targets, weapons the US would be deploying, and attack sequencing,” Goldberg said. His report omitted the details but Goldberg termed it a “shockingly reckless” use of a Signal chat.
Accounts that appeared to represent Vice President JD Vance, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, CIA Director John Ratcliffe, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, and senior National Security Council officials were assembled in the chat group, Goldberg wrote.
Joe Kent, Trump’s nominee for National Counterterrorism Center director, was apparently on the Signal chain despite not yet being Senate-confirmed.
Trump told reporters at the White House that he was unaware of the incident. “I don’t know anything about it. I’m not a big fan of The Atlantic,” Trump said. A White House official said later that an investigation was under way and Trump had been briefed on it.
The NSC’s Hughes said in a statement: “At this time, the message thread that was reported appears to be authentic, and we are reviewing how an inadvertent number was added to the chain.”
“The thread is a demonstration of the deep and thoughtful policy coordination between senior officials. The ongoing success of the Houthi operation demonstrates that there were no threats to our servicemembers or our national security.”
Hegseth denied sharing war plans in the group chat.
“Nobody was texting war plans, and that’s all I have to say about that,” he told reporters while on an official trip to Hawaii on Monday.

‘EUROPEAN FREE-LOADING’

According to screenshots of the chat reported by The Atlantic, officials in the group debated whether the US should carry out the strikes, and at one point Vance appeared to question whether US allies in Europe, more exposed to shipping disruption in the region, deserved US help.
“@PeteHegseth if you think we should do it let’s go,” a person identified as Vance wrote. “I just hate bailing Europe out again,” the person wrote, adding: “Let’s just make sure our messaging is tight here.”
A person identified as Hegseth replied: “VP: I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.”
The Atlantic reported that the person identified as Vance also raised concerns about the timing of the strikes, and said there was a strong argument in favor of delaying them by a month.
“I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now. There’s a further risk that we see a moderate to severe spike in oil prices,” the account wrote, before saying he was willing to support the group’s consensus.
Yemen, Houthi-ally Iran and the European Union’s diplomatic service did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Reuters.
Under US law, it can be a crime to mishandle, misuse or abuse classified information, though it is unclear whether those provisions might have been breached in this case. Messages that The Atlantic report said were set by Waltz to disappear from the Signal app after a period of time also raise questions about possible violations of federal record-keeping laws.
As part of a Trump administration effort to chase down leaks by officials to journalists unrelated to the Signal group, Gabbard posted on X on March 14 that any “unauthorized release of classified information is a violation of the law and will be treated as such.”
On Tuesday, Gabbard is due to testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee on worldwide threats to the United States.
Created by the entrepreneur Moxie Marlinspike, Signal has gone from an exotic messaging app used by privacy-conscious dissidents to the unofficial whisper network of Washington officialdom.
Democratic lawmakers called the use of the Signal group illegal and demanded an investigation.
“This is one of the most stunning breaches of military intelligence that I have read about in a very, very long time,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said, adding that he would ask Majority Leader John Thune to investigate.
“We’re just finding out about it. But obviously, we’ve got to run it to ground and figure out what went on there. We’ll have a plan,” said Thune, a Republican from South Dakota.
There was no immediate suggestion from the White House that the breach would lead to any staffing changes.
“President Trump continues to have the utmost confidence in his national security team, including national security adviser Mike Waltz,” White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told Reuters.
Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren said on X the use of Signal to discuss highly sensitive national security issues was “blatantly illegal and dangerous beyond belief.”
“Every single one of the government officials on this text chain have now committed a crime – even if accidentally – that would normally involve a jail sentence,” Democratic Senator Chris Coons said on X.


Motorcyclist killed by giant Seoul sinkhole

Updated 25 March 2025
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Motorcyclist killed by giant Seoul sinkhole

  • Vast hole opened up at an intersection in the southeast of the Seoul during the evening rush hour
  • Sinkhole accidents are rare in South Korea, with fewer than 200 reported cases every year on average

SEOUL: One person has been killed after a massive sinkhole opened up in Seoul, the fire department said Tuesday, with harrowing video footage showing the moment his vehicle was swallowed by the hole.
The vast hole opened up at an intersection in the southeast of the South Korean capital during the evening rush hour around 6:30 p.m. on Monday.
Dashcam footage shared with AFP by a local lawmaker shows the hole appearing abruptly in the middle of a busy street, with a motorbike being swallowed up instantly as a car narrowly escapes the same fate, sliding into the hole before somehow bouncing out.
The fire department conducted a major search, with rescue workers wearing wetsuits and “digging with their hands” alongside a rescue dog, in a frantic 17-hour hunt for the motorcyclist.
However, on Tuesday “the missing person who is in his thirties, was discovered in cardiac arrest, approximately 50 meters from the centerline of the sinkhole,” Kim Chang-seop, an official from the Gangdong Fire Station, told reporters.
“He was buried at a depth of approximately 90 centimeters (three feet) and was found intact, still wearing his helmet and motorcycle boots,” said Kim, adding they “regret that we are unable to deliver better news.”
The driver of the car suffered minor injuries.
The hole is now around 20 meters (66 feet) wide and 20 meters deep, the fire department said.
A handful of schools nearby closed on Tuesday citing safety concerns.
The cause of the sinkhole will be investigated, but the accident occurred at a site where extension work for a metro line was underway.
A Seoul city spokesperson told AFP it was clear the construction could have been one of “several possible contributing factors.”
“There were several factors at play. Once the surrounding soil and debris are cleared, we will conduct a full investigation into the cause of the accident with a team of experts,” the spokesperson said.
Sinkhole accidents are rare in South Korea, with fewer than 200 reported cases every year on average – significantly less than the number recorded in neighboring Japan.


Brazil’s Supreme Court poised to decide if Bolsonaro will stand trial over coup attempt accusation

Updated 25 March 2025
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Brazil’s Supreme Court poised to decide if Bolsonaro will stand trial over coup attempt accusation

  • Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet charged Jair Bolsonaro last month with plotting a coup after he lost the 2022 election to his opponent
  • Bolsonaro and his alleged accomplices also stand accused of participating in an armed criminal organization

RIO DE JANEIRO: A panel of Brazil’s Supreme Court justices will gather on Tuesday to determine whether former President Jair Bolsonaro and close allies will stand trial on five counts, including attempting to stage a coup.
Prosecutor-General Paulo Gonet charged Bolsonaro last month with plotting a coup after he lost the 2022 election to his opponent and current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Part of that plan allegedly included poisoning Lula and killing Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, a foe of Bolsonaro.
Five Supreme Court justices – including de Moraes, the rapporteur – will meet from 9:30 a.m. local time in Brasilia to rule on the charges leveled by Gonet. If a majority votes in favor, the accused will become defendants in a criminal case.
Bolsonaro and his alleged accomplices also stand accused of participating in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, damage qualified by violence and a serious threat against the state’s assets, and deterioration of listed heritage.
Bolsonaro has repeatedly denied wrongdoing and says that he’s being politically persecuted.
Under Brazilian law, a coup conviction alone carries a sentence of up to 12 years, but combined with the other charges, he could be sentenced to decades behind bars.
Observers say that it’s likely that the charges will be accepted.
“There is no shadow of a doubt that there are very clear elements” that crimes were committed, said Thiago Bottino, a law professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a think tank and university. “The current tendency is that there will be a criminal trial.”
Gonet filed charges against a total of 34 people in February. On Tuesday, the Supreme Court will analyze whether to accept charges against eight of them. As well as Bolsonaro, the court will vote on the accusations faced by former Defense Ministers Walter Braga Netto and Paulo Sérgio Nogueira and ex-Justice Minister Anderson Torres, among others. The court will decide on the others’ fates later on.
Bolsonaro has sought to shore up political support before the possible trial, including by holding a protest on Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro on March 16.
Local media reported that around 18,000 people attended the rally, based on figures from a monitoring project linked to the University of Sao Paulo. Bolsonaro’s allies had hoped to draw a crowd of 1 million, which led some analysts to say that his ability to mobilize voters is diminishing.
Bolsonaro called on social media Sunday for a new demonstration on April 6, to be held on one of Sao Paulo’s main arteries, Avenida Paulista.
As with the protest earlier this month, the former president and his allies will push for Congress to grant amnesty to those in jail for their roles in the Jan. 8, 2023 riot, when Bolsonaro’s die-hard fans stormed and trashed the Supreme Court, Presidential Palace and Congress a week after Lula took office.
In his indictment of Bolsonaro and others linked to him, Gonet said that the rampage was a last-ditch attempt to hold onto power.
Bolsonaro, a former military officer who was known to express nostalgia for the country’s 1964-1985 dictatorship, openly defied Brazil’s judicial system during his 2019-2022 term in office.
He has already been banned by Brazil’s top electoral court from running in elections until 2030 over abuse of power while in office and casting unfounded doubts on the country’s electronic voting system.