RIYADH: Qatar has retained its AA credit rating from Fitch Ratings, with a stable outlook, supported by the country’s expanding liquefied natural gas production capacity and high per capita income. 

The US-based agency highlighted Qatar’s strong fiscal position, citing one of the world’s highest gross domestic product per capita figures and a flexible public finance framework that bolsters the country’s resilience.

An AA rating signals very low credit risk and a robust ability to meet financial commitments, even in the face of foreseeable economic pressures.

Qatar’s strong credit rating aligns with the broader trend in the Middle East, where countries are steadily diversifying their economies to reduce reliance on crude revenues.

In February, Fitch affirmed Saudi Arabia’s IDR at A+ with a stable outlook, while the UAE received a rating of AA-. The agency also affirmed Kuwait’s AA- rating in March. 

“Qatar’s ‘AA’ rating reflects one of the world’s highest GDP per capita, our expectation that additional gas production will strengthen public finances and a flexible public finance structure,” said Fitch Ratings. 

The report highlighted Qatar’s plans to expand LNG production capacity from 77 million tonnes per annum to 110 mtpa in 2026 and 126 mtpa by 2027, eventually reaching 142 mtpa by 2030. 

According to Fitch, state-owned Qatar Energy’s North Field projects will support both hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon growth from 2025 to 2030. 

North Field, which holds nearly 10 percent of the world’s known LNG reserves, lies off the northeast shore of the Qatar peninsula, covering more than 6,000 sq. km — roughly half the country’s land area. 

“Funding plans for the 2030 phase will depend on hydrocarbon prices at that time but we expect it is likely that most of the project will be funded with internal resources,” added Fitch. 

The agency also projected that Qatar’s government debt-to-GDP ratio will fall to about 43 percent by 2027, down from 49 percent in 2024 and a peak of 85 percent in 2020. 

Fitch noted that Qatar’s government is expected to refinance most upcoming external market debt maturities and pay down external loans using a moderate budget surplus, excluding income from its sovereign wealth fund investments. 

Qatar’s sovereign net foreign assets per GDP reached $398 billion in 2024, up from $347 billion in 2023, reaffirming the country’s strong financial standing. 

However, the report also outlined key constraints that could impact Qatar’s rating in the future, including its heavy reliance on hydrocarbons, higher government debt-to-GDP ratio compared to regional peers, and regional stability risks. 

“Qatar has broadly normalized its relations with the GCC in recent years, although points of tensions remain. Qatar continues to position itself as a mediator in relations between Western powers and Iran and Hamas, among others,” Fitch noted. 

It added: “High tensions in the region and uncertainty around US Middle East policy contribute to the persistence of regional geopolitical risks, which could impact Qatar, although it has so far not been directly affected.” 

BEIJING/SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday, supported by instability in the Middle East as well as China’s stimulus plans and data, although global growth concerns, US tariffs and Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks curbed gains.

Brent futures rose 36 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $71.43 a barrel by 10:00 a.m Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 32 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $67.90

“Along with US strikes on the Houthis in Yemen, several factors provided support to the market,” ING analysts said in a research note.

“China unveiled plans to revive consumption, while Chinese retail sales and fixed asset investment growth came in stronger than expected.”

The state council, or cabinet, unveiled on Sunday a special action plan to boost domestic consumption, with measures such as boosting incomes and offering childcare subsidies.

On Monday, Chinese economic data showing that retail sales growth quickened in January-February also gave investors reasons for optimism, although factory output fell and the urban jobless rate reached its highest in two years.

Crude oil throughput in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, rose 2.1 percent in January and February from a year earlier, supported by a new refinery and holiday travel, official data showed on Monday.

Prices also gained support from President Donald Trump’s vow to continue the US assault on Yemen’s Houthis unless they end their attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

On the Israel-Palestinian conflict, Israeli air strikes in Gaza killed at least 200 people, Palestinian health authorities said, as attacks on Tuesday ended a weeks-long standoff over extending a ceasefire that halted fighting in January.

Highlighting persistent concerns about demand, a key downside risk for oil, the OECD said on Monday that Trump’s tariffs would drag down growth in the US, Canada and Mexico, which would weigh on global energy demand.

“With global supply surging and tariffs and trade wars set to hit global demand, we remain of the view that prices will head lower and eventually reach the mid $60s,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity and carbon strategy at Westpac.

Further adding to global supply, Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA has put together three operational scenarios indicating it plans to continue producing and exporting oil from its joint venture with Chevron after the

US major’s license expires next month, according to a company document reviewed by Reuters on Monday.

Talks on Tuesday between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the Ukraine war were also in focus.

Markets believe a potential peace negotiation would involve the easing of sanctions on Russia and the return of its crude supply to global markets, weighing on prices.