Saudi Arabia leads GCC in US dollar debt and sukuk issuance, driving regional growth: Fitch

Fitch expects the Kingdom to play a pivotal role in driving US dollar debt and sukuk issuance in 2025 and 2026. Shutterstock
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Updated 14 February 2025
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Saudi Arabia leads GCC in US dollar debt and sukuk issuance, driving regional growth: Fitch

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia holds the largest share of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s debt capital market, with 44.8 percent of outstanding issuances, according to Fitch Ratings.

The US-based agency claims the GCC’s total DCM surpassed the milestone of $1 trillion at the end of January, reflecting a 10 percent year-on-year growth across all currencies. 

Saudi Arabia, alongside the UAE, boasts the most mature financial landscape, with both countries leading in sukuk and bond issuances. 

Fitch expects the Kingdom to play a pivotal role in driving US dollar debt and sukuk issuance in 2025 and 2026, as Saudi Arabia’s financial institutions and corporations increasingly turn to international debt markets to diversify funding sources, with banks alone anticipated to issue over $30 billion in US dollar-denominated debt this year. 

In a different report issued earlier this month, Fitch expected Saudi Arabia’s debt capital market to hit $500 billion by the end of 2025, fueled by economic diversification efforts under Vision 2030.

The DCM, which involves the trading of securities like bonds and promissory notes, serves as a key mechanism for raising long-term capital for both businesses and governments.

In its latest report, Fitch Ratings said: “Falling oil prices could lead to further DCM growth as lower government revenues could lead to increased borrowing.” 

It added that the anticipated reduction in US Federal Reserve interest rates in 2025 is expected to create a more favorable funding environment, with GCC central banks likely to follow suit. 

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, in particular, are set to benefit from this trend, further solidifying their positions as key regional and global financial hubs. 

GCC’s growing role in global debt markets 

The GCC accounted for a quarter of all emerging-market US dollar debt issued in 2024, excluding China, with Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and the UAE leading the way.. 

GCC US dollar DCM issuance surged by 65.8 percent year on year in 2024 to $133.4 billion, underscoring the region’s increasing reliance on international debt markets. New GCC fund passporting regulations could enhance DCM investment opportunities. 

Sukuk remained a key financing tool, making up 40 percent of the GCC’s total DCM as of January. Saudi Arabia and its regional counterparts contributed over 40 percent of global sukuk issuance, with GCC volumes soaring 43 percent year on year in 2024 to $87.5 billion. 

Notably, nearly 80 percent of Fitch-rated GCC sukuk are investment-grade, with the majority falling within the “A” category, while the remainder is mostly split between AA, BBB, BB, and B ratings. 

Most issuers are on “Stable Outlook”’ with the rest mainly on “positive.” Islamic banks played a crucial role in the sukuk ecosystem, both as issuers and investors, reinforcing the Kingdom’s leadership in Islamic finance. 

Challenges such as Shariah compliance complexities could impact sukuk structuring and issuance, Fitch warned. 

Saudi Arabia and UAE dominate ESG debt market 

The GCC’s environmental, social, and governance debt market surpassed $50 billion in outstanding issuances by the end of January, according to the ratings agency. 

Saudi Arabia and the UAE led this segment, with ESG debt representing 7.3 percent of the Kingdom’s total dollar debt issuance in 2024. 

ESG-debt issuance was also a sizable part — 17 percent — of dollar debt issuance in the UAE. 

“ESG debt could help issuers tap demand from ESG-sensitive international investors from the US, Europe and Asia,” Fitch said. 

Challenges and future prospects 

Despite its rapid expansion, the GCC’s DCM faces hurdles, including a bank-dominated investor base, a preference for bank financing over capital market funding, and limited local-currency debt issuance outside of Saudi Arabia. 

The Kingdom’s riyal-denominated market is the most developed in the region but “still has more room for growth,” according to Fitch. 

Kuwait became the GCC’s third-largest dollar debt issuer in 2024, with a total of $13.6 billion, led by banks. This is despite the absence of the public debt law, which would enable sovereign borrowing. 

Historically, US dollar issuances from Kuwait have been sporadic and rare, with only $11.8 billion issued between 2018 and 2023. “Kuwait’s new government plans to revise liquidity laws to facilitate capital market borrowing, but the timeline is uncertain,” Fitch said.
 


Gulf, China exchanges sign deal to boost commodity ties

Updated 11 sec ago
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Gulf, China exchanges sign deal to boost commodity ties

JEDDAH: Economic relations between the Middle East and China’s derivatives markets are set to deepen following a new cooperation agreement signed between the Gulf Mercantile Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

Under the agreement, GME — the Middle East’s leading international energy and commodities futures exchange — and SHFE — one of China’s primary commodity trading platforms — will collaborate on a range of strategic initiatives.

These include joint product development, market research, the exchange of insights on market trends, and investor education efforts, according to a joint statement released by both exchanges.

The partnership marks a significant step toward GME’s goal of positioning the Gulf region as a global hub for commodities trading.

At the same time, it supports SHFE’s ambition to expand its international presence and strengthen its connections with key global markets.

“This partnership is a key step toward strengthening alignment between China and the Gulf in commodities trading,” said Raid Al-Salami, managing director of GME.

“We value our cooperation with SHFE and look forward to the opportunities this agreement will unlock for both sides.”

The agreement comes on the heels of a strong performance year for GME. In January, the exchange reported a 12 percent increase in total trading volume for 2024, reaching 1.32 million contracts — up from 1.18 million the previous year. Front-month contract volumes surged 20 percent to a record 959,565 contracts, while total physical exposure rose by 11 percent, reflecting GME’s commitment to enhancing market accessibility and supporting sustainable growth.

Formerly known as the Dubai Mercantile Exchange, GME has a long-standing reputation as a key player in the region’s commodities sector. Established with the vision of creating internationally accessible derivatives markets for Middle East commodities, the exchange has continued to evolve in scope and ambition.

A major milestone came in 2024 when the Saudi Tadawul Group acquired a third strategic stake in the exchange. This acquisition led to a rebranding from DME to GME, signaling a renewed focus on building out commodity markets in Saudi Arabia and across the wider GCC as part of a long-term strategic roadmap.

With this new partnership, GME and SHFE are poised to play a central role in shaping the future of commodity trading between two of the world’s most dynamic economic regions.


Saudi Arabia advances in 2025 Global Intellectual Property Index

Updated 36 min 8 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia advances in 2025 Global Intellectual Property Index

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia has made notable progress in the 2025 Global Intellectual Property Index, with its score rising by 17.5 percent, placing it among the fastest-improving economies out of the 55 countries evaluated.

According to the 13th edition of the index, published by the US Chamber of Commerce, the Kingdom now ranks 40th globally—a reflection of the substantial reforms driven by its Vision 2030 strategy. These reforms aim to enhance intellectual property protection, foster innovation, and support the growth of a knowledge-based economy.

Since 2019, Saudi Arabia’s overall score has increased from 36.6 percent to 53.7 percent in 2025, marking a cumulative improvement of over 40 percent in just six years.

This progress stems from a comprehensive transformation of the nation’s IP ecosystem, including the strengthening of legal frameworks and enforcement mechanisms.

Key milestones noted in the report include the extension of design protection from 10 to 15 years, the establishment of a specialized prosecution office for IP-related cases, and the launch of advanced online enforcement tools for copyrights and trademarks.

These developments highlight Saudi Arabia’s growing institutional capacity and ongoing regulatory modernization, led by the Saudi Authority for Intellectual Property.

The report also highlighted significant advancements in public awareness initiatives, inter-agency collaboration, and Saudi Arabia’s accession to key international intellectual property treaties. These developments have helped align the Kingdom’s IP framework more closely with global standards.

Notably, Saudi Arabia achieved higher scores in enforcement, international treaty participation, and the efficiency of its copyright enforcement system. These improvements reinforce the Kingdom’s ambition to become a regional and global center for innovation and creativity.

By fostering a more transparent and dependable intellectual property environment, Saudi Arabia is attracting increased foreign investment while also empowering local entrepreneurs to develop innovative ideas, products, and technologies.

The US Chamber of Commerce commended the Kingdom’s efforts to institutionalize intellectual property rights as a core component of its economic diversification strategy, positioning Saudi Arabia as a model among emerging markets.

Meanwhile, the UAE also performed strongly in the 2025 index, ranking 26th globally with an overall score of 60.66 percent. The UAE was praised for its robust patent and trademark protections, consistent judicial enforcement, and strong commitment to digital transformation.


Oman property market cools in February as deals drop 8.3% 

Updated 20 April 2025
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Oman property market cools in February as deals drop 8.3% 

RIYADH: Oman’s property market saw a dip in activity in February, with total real estate transactions falling 8.3 percent year on year to 362.3 million Omani rials ($940.7 million), official data showed. 

According to figures from the National Centre for Statistics and Information, this compares to 394.9 million rials recorded during the same period in 2024, Oman News Agency reported.   

The moderation in activity comes amid tighter global financial conditions, shifting investor sentiment, and a gradual normalization of real estate markets across the Gulf following the post-pandemic surge in demand and pricing. 

Despite the broader slowdown in Oman’s real estate market, revenue from legal transaction fees rose 5.9 percent to 12.3 million rials, up from 11.6 million rials a year earlier. 

The value of sale contracts dropped 18.3 percent to 160.3 million rials, while the number of contracts declined 3.2 percent to 11,177, down from 11,543 in February 2024.  

Meanwhile, mortgage transactions edged up 1.8 percent to 200.1 million rials across 3,416 contracts, compared to 196.5 million rials across 2,989 contracts a year earlier. 

Exchange contracts dropped to 266, valued at 1.9 million rials, down from 299 contracts worth 2.2 million rials in the same period last year.  

The number of property titles issued rose slightly by 0.8 percent to 39,704, while those issued to Gulf Cooperation Council citizens increased by 7.1 percent to 227, compared to 212 in February 2024. 

The cooling follows a strong 2024, when Oman’s real estate sector surged 29.5 percent, with total transactions reaching 3.3 billion rials, driven by foreign investment and government-led reforms.  

During the first nine months of that year, the sector contributed 820.7 million rials to gross domestic product, according to the Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning, as reported by Oman News Agency in February. 

The sector’s performance reflects broader regional momentum as Gulf countries press ahead with economic diversification strategies. 

In Saudi Arabia, real estate prices rose 3.6 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024. Dubai saw a 30 percent jump in residential sales to $32.4 billion during the same period, while Qatar recorded 3,548 real estate transactions in 2024 totaling $3.97 billion. 

To support the sector, Oman has eased foreign ownership rules and introduced tax incentives aimed at attracting investment and boosting development across the sultanate. 


US tariff escalation puts $22bn of Arab exports at risk, says ESCWA report

Updated 20 April 2025
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US tariff escalation puts $22bn of Arab exports at risk, says ESCWA report

RIYADH: Arab countries could see up to $22 billion in non-oil exports affected by sweeping new US tariffs, with six economies facing the most direct disruption, according to a new analysis. 

A report by the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia said the measures, imposed on April 2, include a blanket 10 percent tariff on nearly all imports, with rates climbing as high as 42 percent for countries with trade surpluses. 

While oil remains exempt, the duties now cover a broad range of industrial goods such as textiles, fertilizers, aluminium and electronics, effectively nullifying trade preferences previously granted to Bahrain, Jordan, Morocco and Oman. 

ESCWA said that exports from Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Tunisia are expected to be “significantly affected by the new tariff hikes,” with Jordan facing the highest exposure due to its reliance on the US market. 

“A country having a higher share of non-oil exports to the United States is expected to be directly impacted,” the report stated. 

“The direct impact is particularly high for countries where exports to the United States constitute a major share of their total global exports.” 

While some Arab countries like Egypt and Morocco initially appeared well-positioned to benefit from trade diversion away from heavily tariffed economies like China and India, that potential has faded following a policy shift by Washington.  

“With the pause announced on 9 April for most countries, excluding China, the trade diversion effect in favor of most Arab countries is likely to disappear,” ESCWA noted. 

ESCWA noted that the impact will vary considerably across the region. Five other countries — Algeria, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — are likely to see smaller effects, while eleven Arab countries are projected to experience negligible exposure due to limited or no exports to the US. 

These include Iraq, Kuwait, and Libya, as well as several least developed countries such as Somalia, Sudan, and the Comoros. 

While direct trade impacts will be concentrated among a handful of countries, the broader Arab region may still suffer from indirect effects tied to global demand conditions. 

ESCWA warned that reduced consumption from key partners such as China and the EU — both major buyers of Arab goods — could negatively affect export performance across the board. 

The EU accounts for 72 percent of Tunisia’s exports and 68 percent of Morocco’s, while China purchases 22 percent of the GCC’s oil and chemicals.  

Preliminary macroeconomic modeling for 2025 indicates moderate net impacts for the Agadir Agreement countries — Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia.   

These nations are expected to see declines in gross domestic product, exports and investment, though some mitigation may occur through limited trade redirection.   

GCC economies, by contrast, are projected to experience a smaller aggregate effect, with real GDP declining slightly.   

However, the report suggests that losses in oil revenue, tied to falling prices and reduced global demand, could weigh more heavily on fiscal outcomes.  

The simulation assumes full implementation of the April 2 US tariffs and corresponding retaliatory measures from China announced on April 5.   

Based on this scenario, real GDP in the Agadir countries is projected to fall by 0.41 percent, exports by 1.41 percent, and total investment by 0.38 percent.   

The GCC region is expected to register a GDP loss of just 0.10 percent, reflecting lower exposure to US tariffs but higher vulnerability to oil market fluctuations.  

The fiscal dimension of the shock is also becoming more apparent. Rising global uncertainty has already driven up borrowing costs for many Arab economies.   

Between April 2 and April 9, 10-year bond yields increased by 36 basis points in Arab middle-income countries and by 32 basis points in the GCC.  

The impact is particularly acute in debt-heavy MICs. ESCWA estimates that Egypt will face an additional $56 million in interest payments in 2025, Morocco $39 million, Jordan $14 million, and Tunisia $5 million.   

These increases, while modest in dollar terms, represent a non-trivial strain on public finances.  

The Arab region’s trade relationship with the US has already been weakening.  Total exports from Arab countries to the US dropped from $91 billion in 2013 to $48 billion in 2024, primarily due to the decline in American crude oil imports.   

However, non-oil exports have grown steadily, from $14 billion in 2013 to $22 billion last year, underscoring the increasing relevance of industrial and value-added goods in Arab export profiles.  

In light of these developments, ESCWA is urging Arab governments to respond with coordinated policy actions.   

Recommended measures include accelerating regional economic integration, pursuing carve-outs under existing trade agreements, and recalibrating free trade arrangements to avoid preference erosion.   

The agency also emphasized the need for countries to strengthen fiscal buffers and diversify trade and investment partnerships.  

As the geopolitical and trade environment grows more uncertain, Arab economies are being advised to prepare for continued volatility.   

“Arab countries must recognize the diverse, and sometimes contradictory effects of the United States tariff escalation,” ESCWA stated, warning that policy inaction could expose vulnerable economies to prolonged disruptions. 


Saudi Arabia leads GCC fixed income issuances in Q1: Markaz report 

Updated 20 April 2025
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Saudi Arabia leads GCC fixed income issuances in Q1: Markaz report 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia dominated the Gulf’s primary debt market in the first quarter of 2025, raising $31.01 billion through 41 bond and sukuk issuances, a new analysis showed.  

According to the Kuwait Financial Center, also known as Markaz, the Kingdom accounted for 60.2 percent of total issuances across the Gulf Cooperation Council, reaffirming its status as the region’s largest fixed income market.  

Despite its lead, Saudi Arabia's issuance volume declined 19.6 percent year on year from $38.55 billion in the first quarter of 2024. Overall, the GCC’s primary debt issuances totaled $51.51 billion in the first quarter, marking a 7.1 percent decrease from the same period last year. 

“As for issuer preferences, Q1 2025 saw an increased appetite for conventional bond issuances in the GCC, representing 65.5 percent of total issuances for the quarter,” Markaz noted. 

It added: “This follows the same trend as in Q1 2024, where conventional bonds also represented the bulk of issuances, with 52.6 percent of all issuances in Q1 2024 being conventional bonds.” 

Regional outlook 

The Kingdom’s debt market has grown significantly in recent years, driven by investor interest in fixed income amid rising interest rates. 

In February, Saudi Arabia raised €2.25 billion ($2.36 billion) through a euro-denominated bond sale, which included its inaugural green tranche, as part of its Global Medium-Term Note Issuance Program. 

The National Debt Management Center also completed a riyal-denominated sukuk issuance worth SR3.07 billion ($818 million) in February, following an issuance of SR3.72 billion in January. 

Following Saudi Arabia, the UAE ranked second with $10.17 billion raised from 29 offerings, representing a 19.7 percent market share. The UAE’s issuances also surged 61.6 percent from the same period last year, according to Markaz. 

Qatar came third, raising $7.14 billion through 38 offerings, accounting for 13.9 percent of total issuances. 

Bahrain recorded issuances worth SR1.53 billion, a 44.5 percent drop year on year. 

Kuwait raised $1.41 billion from nine issuances, marking a 40.9 percent increase from the previous year. 

Omani entities issued just $260 million from one transaction, the lowest in the region, representing 0.5 percent of the total value. 

Issuances by type 

GCC corporate issuances totaled $32.11 billion in the first quarter, a 45.3 percent year-on-year increase. These made up 62.4 percent of total issuances. 

Government-related corporate entities raised $6.8 billion, accounting for 21.2 percent of corporate issuance. 

The report noted that total sovereign primary issuances in the GCC fell to $19.39 billion in the first quarter, marking a 41.8 percent decline from the same period last year. 

In December 2024, an analysis by Kamco Invest highlighted the growth of the region’s debt market and projected that Saudi Arabia would account for the largest share of bond and sukuk maturities in the GCC, reaching $168 billion between 2025 and 2029. 

Kamco Invest added that maturities in the Kingdom would be driven primarily by government-issued bonds and sukuk, expected to total $110.2 billion during the period. 

In its latest report, Markaz noted that conventional issuances rose 15.8 percent year-on-year to $32.12 billion in the first quarter. 

In contrast, sukuk issuances declined 32.5 percent over the same period, totaling $17.75 billion. 

Sector breakdown 

The financial sector led bond and sukuk activity in the first quarter, raising $22 billion through 100 issuances — or 42.8 percent of the total. 

The government sector followed with $19.4 billion from 12 issuances, representing 37.6 percent of the market. 

The real estate sector raised $4.3 billion from five transactions. 

Maturity and currency profile 

Markaz said that primary issuances with tenors of less than five years accounted for 53.1 percent of the GCC debt capital markets in the first quarter, with a total value of $27.4 billion across 99 issuances. 

Issuances with tenors of five to ten years followed, raising $18.4 billion through 20 deals, representing 35.8 percent of the total. 

Offerings with maturities of 10 to 30 years made up 1.6 percent of the market in the first three months of the year, with a single issuance valued at $809 million. 

“One issuance also came in with a maturity greater than 30 years, with a value of $1 billion. Finally, perpetual issuances saw an increase in both the size and number of issuances when compared to the first quarter of 2024, with a total value of $3.9 billion through 4 issuances,” Markaz added.  

In the first quarter of this year, GCC primary issuances ranged in size from $2 million to $5 billion. 

The report noted that issuances valued at $1 billion or more raised the largest share, totaling $31.9 billion across 18 offerings. This segment represented 61.9 percent of the total amount issued in the GCC during the same period. 

Issuances between $500 million and $1 billion followed, raising $14.4 billion through 22 deals. 

The highest number of issuances came in the under $100 million category, with 65 transactions collectively raising $1.9 billion during the first quarter. 

Markaz also highlighted that US dollar-denominated issuances dominated the bonds and sukuk primary market in the GCC, raising $44.9 billion through 92 offerings. These issuances accounted for 87.2 percent of the total value raised in the region. 

The second-largest currency for issuances was the euro, which raised $3 billion through four transactions. 

In February, credit rating agency Fitch projected that Saudi Arabia would play a key role in driving US dollar debt and sukuk issuance in 2025 and 2026, as the Kingdom’s financial institutions and corporations continue to tap international debt markets for diversified funding sources. 

Fitch added that Saudi banks alone are expected to issue over $30 billion in dollar-denominated issuances this year. 

The agency further noted that Saudi banks have significantly expanded their international debt capital market activities since 2020, aligning with their growth strategies and foreign-currency requirements. 

Additionally, Fitch forecasted that Saudi Arabia’s debt capital market would reach $500 billion by the end of 2025, supported by the Kingdom’s economic diversification efforts under Vision 2030.