Oil Updates — prices hover near two-week low; weak China data adds to demand concerns

Brent crude oil futures rose by 42 cents, or 0.54 percent, to $77.5 per barrel by 7:30 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 28 January 2025
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Oil Updates — prices hover near two-week low; weak China data adds to demand concerns

NEW YORK/SINGAPORE: Oil prices ticked up but hovered near a two-week low on Tuesday after weak economic data from China and warming weather forecasts elsewhere soured the demand outlook.

Brent crude oil futures rose by 42 cents, or 0.54 percent, to $77.5 per barrel by 7:30 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 34 cents, or 0.46 percent, to $73.51. Brent settled on Monday at its lowest since Jan. 9, while WTI hit its lowest since Jan. 2.

China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, reported on Monday an unexpected contraction in manufacturing activity in January, adding to concerns over global crude demand growth.

“The general tone of caution in the risk environment, coupled with weaker Chinese PMI numbers that cast further doubt on China’s oil demand outlook, may serve as a drag on oil prices,” IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong said.

China’s crude oil demand is also expected to be hit by the latest US sanctions on Russian oil trade. FGE analysts see refineries in Shandong losing up to 1 million barrels per day of crude supply in the near-term amid a ban imposed by the Shandong Port Group on US-sanctioned tankers.

“Alternative crude barrels (to Russian supply) are being sought after at the same time, but they come at much higher costs,” the analysts noted.

Several independent refineries in China have halted operations, or plan to do so, for indefinite maintenance periods, sources told Reuters, as new Chinese tariff and tax policies plunge plants deeper into losses.

India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, also faces disruptions to Russian oil supply, but refiners there are taking advantage of a wind-down period in the sanctions to make purchases until March, the FGE analysts said.

In the US, weather forecasts are for warmer-than-normal temperatures through this week, which is weighing on demand for heating fuels after extreme cold sparked a natural gas and diesel rally in prior sessions.

“Temperatures in both regions (US and Europe) are increasing, allowing for heating fuel demand to slide off some,” StoneX oil analyst Alex Hodes said on Monday.

Broader financial markets were under pressure from a surge of interest in a low-cost artificial intelligence model launched by Chinese firm DeepSeek.

“Losses (in the oil market) appear relatively limited from the turmoil in US tech stocks,” IG’s Yeap said.

Still, caution is likely to persist as the Feb. 1 deadline for US tariffs approaches, with any potential trade restrictions likely to introduce downside risks to global growth, which could translate to downward pressure on oil, Yeap added. 


Gulf emerging as beneficiary amid changing global alliances, says TCW executive

Updated 23 January 2026
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Gulf emerging as beneficiary amid changing global alliances, says TCW executive

DAVOS: As artificial intelligence dominated discussions at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, asset managers are exploring how the technology can be deployed at scale without losing the human judgement that underpins investment decisions.

For Jennifer Grancio, global head of distribution at asset management firm TCW, Saudi Arabia’s approach to energy and AI makes it a particularly attractive hub for investors.

“Saudi Arabia has been very forward-leaning in traditional energy,” Grancio said.

“They’ve also invested heavily in grid efficiency and electricity, which positions them to serve the wider region. Combined with AI adoption, it makes them a powerhouse for investment opportunities.”

For TCW, the focus is not on replacing human expertise but on expanding capacity.

“We’re using AI to increase capacity, not to replace investment analysts or people who write commentaries or evaluate securities,” Grancio explained.

The firm continues to rely on deep research, deploying AI selectively across functions such as securitized credit, marketing and investment teams.

TCW’s engagement with AI predates the current wave of enthusiasm and adoption.

“We were actually an early AI investor. In the US, we have the oldest AI fund, launched over eight years ago, focused on both enablers and adopters,” Grancio said.

The dual focus on technology and infrastructure increasingly aligns with developments in the Gulf.

“As an investment manager, we look at both the AI systems being developed and how energy and power infrastructure supports them,” she said, highlighting TCW’s global energy and power strategy, which has consistently outperformed its benchmark.

Geopolitical shifts are also reshaping investment flows to the Gulf.

“Concerns around the US, China or Russia have led global investors to rely more on the Gulf,” Grancio said. “It’s a great time for development and trade there.”

Emerging markets are drawing growing attention from investors.

“In the US, there’s a rotation toward global exposure. Elsewhere, there’s renewed focus on emerging markets and managing through volatility,” she said.

TCW has benefited from this trend, particularly in emerging market debt, with sovereign clients increasing allocations by billions of dollars.

Volatility, Grancio added, can create opportunity. “As a value manager, we do deep research and focus on relative valuation. In fixed income and securitized credit, volatility allows us to increase returns for clients.”

In the Middle East, sovereign wealth funds and pension systems are expanding into private credit and alternative income strategies. Education is key, Grancio said.

“Understanding what’s different about private investments is critical. They offer strong compounding and portfolio diversification.”

Private asset-backed finance is a growing trend in the region. “We’re seeing portfolios shift from public fixed income into private securitized credit, a major growth area.” 

Looking ahead to 2026, Grancio said that shifts will vary by region and investor type. “In the US, the wealth market has moved toward ETFs. We’ve rapidly built out a $6 billion ETF platform to meet demand,” she said.