ISLAMABAD: The new United States (US) administration of President Donald Trump will continue viewing Pakistan through the “China-India lens,” Pakistani foreign affairs experts said on Monday, as Islamabad pledged to strengthen its relations with Washington.
Trump’s inauguration is scheduled for Monday at 1700 GMT inside the Capitol Rotunda as he returns to the presidency four years after being voted out during a pandemic-driven economic collapse, marking an unprecedented political comeback.
Relations between Islamabad and Washington, once close allies, had been strained because of Pakistan’s alleged support of the Taliban in Afghanistan, a claim Islamabad denies. Ties worsened further during the tenure of Prime Minister Imran Khan, who welcomed the Taliban’s 2021 takeover and accused Washington of trying to oust him. Since Khan’s ouster in 2022, PM Shehbaz Sharif’s government has made frequent efforts to repair the damaged relations.
But Pakistani foreign affairs experts believe that the US is unlikely to seek a significant expansion of ties with Islamabad in the near future and will approach it keeping its China and India policies in view, and remaining largely focused on security cooperation, particularly in counterterrorism and Afghanistan.
“The biggest challenge for Pakistan is that the Trump administration will continue its previous policies of looking at Pakistan through the China-India lens,” Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, a professor at Quaid-e-Azam University’s School of Politics and International Relations, told Arab News.
“Now, the biggest challenge for us is how to convince the Americans that though we will be not a part of the American policies to contain China, but at the same time, we could be a part of Americans’ policies in addressing the non-traditional security challenges and on Afghanistan.”
He said the new Trump administration could use the incarceration of Pakistani political figures, including ex-PM Khan, to influence the incumbent Pakistani government.
“People think that Imran Khan is an established fact, the political divide in Pakistan exists and that divide could be exploited by the external powers for pursuing their agendas within the country or in the region,” Dr. Jaspal added.
Trump’s special envoy nominee Richard Grenell urged President Joe Biden’s administration to use its last days in power to push for the release of Khan, who has been in jail for more than a year on a slew of charges, so he could run for office in Pakistan.
While a Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson declined to comment on Grenell’s statement at the time, the Pakistani government and allies have criticized Grenell’s comments.
On Monday, Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan said Pakistan maintained close relations with the US, marked by multi-layered cooperation in economy, trade, people-to-people connections, security and counter-terrorism, and Islamabad seeks to further solidify them.
“Pakistan-US relations have a very long history, and the relations remain rich and dense, and we would continue to work with the new administration to further solidify and strengthen this vital relationship,” Shafqat told Arab News.
“We seek to further strengthen these ties by ensuring the continued positive growth of bilateral relations.”
Senator Sherry Rehman, who has previously served as Pakistan’s ambassador to the US, said every transition offers opportunities for a reset, and Pakistan needs to state its own goals for a broader bilateral path to widen its relationship with the US from a highly “securitized” lens to a more robust economic and commercial one.
“Islamabad should make a clear agenda with defined milestones for consistent engagement over better terms of trade, not just wait for Washington to respond to regional headwinds, in which Pakistan finds itself seeking balance against an Indian arms race in South Asia,” she told Arab News.
“There should be no diplomatic diffidence in stating the country’s strategic interests while iterating confidence in rebuilding trust between the two countries [Pakistan and the US].”
Masood Khan, another former Pakistani ambassador to the US, said Pakistan should try to invest “new energy” into economic cooperation between the two countries and remove any “shackles” in the strategic domain.
“The full contours of President Trump’s policy toward South Asia haven’t become very clear, but we have shared strategic interests in the region and beyond,” he told Arab News.
“This is called Trump 2.0, so it will not be the repetition of the previous tenure,” he said, adding that Trump is more “clear-headed and more forthright” regarding his priorities this time.
Dr. Salma Malik, another foreign affairs expert, said if the US adopts policies directed against China, every action or policy decision it takes will have a “direct or indirect impact on Pakistan.”
“Therefore, it is important not to overreact or panic, instead, we should cautiously approach developments, assess opportunities, and respond accordingly,” she said.
New Trump administration to view Pakistan through ‘China-India lens’ as Islamabad pledges stronger ties — experts
https://arab.news/nsk7u
New Trump administration to view Pakistan through ‘China-India lens’ as Islamabad pledges stronger ties — experts
- Islamabad-Washington ties, strained over Pakistan’s alleged support of Taliban, further worsened after ex-PM Khan blamed his ouster on Washington
- Analysts suggest Islamabad to make a clear agenda with defined milestones, cautiously approach developments in relations and respond accordingly
IMF warns against policy slippage amid weak recovery as it clears $1.2 billion for Pakistan
- Pakistan rebuilt reserves, cut its deficit and slowed inflation sharply over the past one year
- Fund says climate shocks, energy debt, stalled reforms threaten stability despite recent gains
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s economic recovery remains fragile despite a year of painful stabilization measures that helped pull the country back from the brink of default, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Thursday, after it approved a fresh $1.2 billion disbursement under its ongoing loan program.
The approval covers the second review of Pakistan’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the first review of its climate-focused Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), bringing total disbursements since last year to about $3.3 billion.
Pakistan entered the IMF program in September 2024 after years of weak revenues, soaring fiscal deficits, import controls, currency depletion and repeated climate shocks left the economy close to external default. A smaller stopgap arrangement earlier that year helped avert immediate default, but the current 37-month program was designed to restore macroeconomic stability through strict monetary tightening, currency adjustments, subsidy rationalization and aggressive revenue measures.
The IMF’s new review shows that Pakistan has delivered significant gains since then. Growth recovered to 3 percent last year after shrinking the year before. Inflation fell from over 23 percent to low single digits before rising again after this year’s floods. The current account posted its first surplus in 14 years, helped by stronger remittances and a sharp reduction in imports. And the government delivered a primary budget surplus of 1.3 percent of GDP, a key program requirement. Foreign exchange reserves, which had dropped dangerously low in 2023, rose from US$9.4 billion to US$14.5 billion by June.
“Pakistan’s reform implementation under the EFF arrangement has helped preserve macroeconomic stability in the face of several recent shocks,” IMF Deputy Managing Director Nigel Clarke said in a statement after the Board meeting.
But he warned that Islamabad must “maintain prudent policies” and accelerate reforms needed for private-sector-led and sustainable growth.
The Fund noted that the 2025 monsoon floods, affecting nearly seven million people, damaging housing, livestock and key crops, and displacing more than four million, have set back the recovery. The IMF now expects GDP growth in FY26 to be slightly lower and forecasts inflation to rise to 8–10 percent in the coming months as food prices adjust.
The review warns Pakistan against relaxing monetary or fiscal discipline prematurely. It urges the State Bank to keep policy “appropriately tight,” allow exchange-rate flexibility and improve communication. Islamabad must also continue raising revenues, broadening the tax base and protecting social spending, the Fund said.
Despite the progress, Pakistan’s structural weaknesses remain severe.
Power-sector circular debt stands at about $5.7 billion, and gas-sector arrears have climbed to $11.3 billion despite tariff adjustments. Reform of state-owned enterprises has slowed, including delays in privatizing loss-making electricity distributors and Pakistan International Airlines. Key governance and anti-corruption reforms have also been pushed back.
The IMF welcomed Pakistan’s expansion of its flagship Benazir Income Support Program, which raises cash transfers for low-income families and expands coverage, saying social protection is essential as climate shocks intensify. But it warned that high public debt, about 72 percent of GDP, thin external buffers and climate exposure leave the country vulnerable if reform momentum weakens.
The Fund said Pakistan’s challenge now is to convert short-term stabilization into sustained recovery after years of economic volatility, with its ability to maintain discipline, rather than the size of external financing alone, determining the durability of its gains.
