RIYADH: Oil production and large investment projects will accelerate annual economic growth across the Middle East and North Africa by 0.8 percentage points in 2025, according to Moody’s.
The global credit rating agency forecasts growth of 2.9 percent this year, up from 2.1 percent in 2024, and also maintained a stable outlook for the credit fundamentals of sovereigns in the region over the next 12 months.
The agency emphasized that the impact of large investments will be most evident in Saudi Arabia, driven by high government and sovereign wealth fund spending linked to the Vision 2030 diversification program.
The projections align with those of global consultancy Oxford Economics, which expects regional gross domestic product to grow by 3.6 percent in 2025, outpacing the firm’s global forecast of 2.8 percent.
Moody’s added that the pickup in the MENA economy will be driven primarily by “stronger growth in the region’s hydrocarbon exporters because of a partial unwinding of strategic oil production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement.”
Alexander Perjessy, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody’s, said: “Large-scale investment projects, many of them part of longer-term government development and diversification agendas, will support non-hydrocarbon economic activity across the region.”
According to the credit rating agency, real gross domestic product growth for hydrocarbon-exporting nations is expected to rise to 3.5 percent in 2025, up from 1.9 percent in the previous year, as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman ease the oil production cuts implemented in 2023.
In Qatar, growth in the small, gas-rich nation will be bolstered by the development of the petrochemical industry and construction activities related to the expansion of liquefied natural gas production capacity, set to come online between 2026 and 2030.
In Kuwait, non-hydrocarbon growth will be mainly driven by major projects, including the construction of a new port and a new airport terminal.
Meanwhile, Iraq’s non-hydrocarbon growth is expected to remain above pre-COVID levels, provided that improved domestic security conditions are sustained, driven by the gradual implementation of several transport and energy projects.
In the UAE, non-hydrocarbon growth will moderate slightly due to the completion of some infrastructure projects; however, it will remain robust, at around 5 percent in 2025.
