Global oil demand set to rise by 1.21 mbpd in 2025: KAPSARC

The Saudi-based think tank’s latest report also forecasts that oil demand will rise by 1.23 million bpd in 2026, bringing global consumption to 104.97 million bpd. File
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Updated 13 January 2025
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Global oil demand set to rise by 1.21 mbpd in 2025: KAPSARC

RIYADH: Global oil consumption is projected to increase by 1.21 million barrels per day in 2025, reaching a total of 103.74 million bpd, according to an analysis by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.

The Saudi-based think tank’s latest report also forecasts that oil demand will rise by 1.23 million bpd in 2026, bringing global consumption to 104.97 million bpd.

KAPSARC’s forecast for 2025 is slightly lower than the projection made by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in December 2024. OPEC predicted a 1.4 million bpd increase in global oil demand for 2025, bringing the total to 105.3 million bpd.

The KAPSARC analysis highlights several key factors that will influence oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026. While economic conditions and OPEC+ actions have been significant drivers of the oil market in recent years, the report emphasizes that new factors, such as geopolitics, inventory levels, and, to a lesser extent, the global energy transition, will play an increasingly prominent role in shaping market volatility in the coming years.

“Over the past couple of years, some of the main drivers for oil markets have been linked to the economy and OPEC+ actions. However, as we head into 2025 and 2026, new actors will start playing a more important role in shaping oil market volatility — namely, geopolitics, inventory filling, and, to a lesser extent, the energy transition,”  KAPSARC noted in its report.

Inflation is also expected to be a major factor in oil demand growth, with global inflation likely to remain above pre-pandemic levels in the next two years. This persistent inflationary pressure could affect both consumption patterns and investment in energy markets.

According to KAPSARC, countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development will see minimal or no growth in oil demand over the next two years. In contrast, non-OECD nations — particularly India and the Middle East—are expected to experience significant demand growth.

India, for example, is forecast to see an increase in oil consumption of 220,000 bpd in both 2025 and 2026. China’s demand growth will remain relatively modest, with increases of 210,000 bpd in 2025 and 190,000 bpd in 2026. The Middle East is projected to experience a growth of 200,000 bpd in each of the next two years.

As a result, the overall growth in oil demand for non-OECD countries is expected to reach 1.09 million bpd annually in 2025 and 2026.

In terms of oil supply, KAPSARC expects global production to increase by approximately 1.48 million bpd in 2025 and 1.98 million bpd in 2026. The report predicts a supply surplus of 260,000 bpd in 2025, followed by a larger surplus of 1.01 million bpd in 2026.

However, KAPSARC also cautions that if OECD countries continue to maintain their historically low inventory levels, as seen in recent years, this could contribute to bearish conditions in the oil commodities market.

“Given the dynamics between oil supply and demand, we anticipate an overall surplus in both 2025 and 2026. If OECD countries keep their inventory levels low, we could see continued downward pressure on oil prices,” KAPSARC concluded.


AI will never replace human creativity, says SRMG CEO 

Updated 30 January 2026
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AI will never replace human creativity, says SRMG CEO 

  • Speaking to Maya Hojeij, senior business anchor at Asharq with Bloomberg, Jomana R. Alrashid expressed pride in SRMG platforms that had absorbed and adopted AI

RIYADH: Jomana R. Alrashid, CEO of Saudi Research and Media Group, highlighted how AI cannot replace human creativity during a session at The Family Office’s “Investing Is a Sea” summit at Shura Island on Friday. 

“You can never replace human creativity. Journalism at the end of the day, and content creation, is all about storytelling, and that’s a creative role that AI does not have the power to do just yet,” Alrashid told the investment summit. 

“We will never eliminate that human role which comes in to actually tell that story, do the actual investigative reporting around it, make sure to be able to also tell you what’s news or what’s factual from what’s wrong ... what’s a misinformation from bias, and that’s the bigger role that the editorial player does in the newsroom.”

Speaking on the topic of AI, moderated by Maya Hojeij, senior business anchor at Asharq with Bloomberg, the CEO expressed her pride in SRMG platforms that had absorbed and adopted AI in a way that was “transformative.”

“We are now translating all of our content leveraging AI. We are also now being able to create documentaries leveraging AI. We now have AI-facilitated fact-checking, AI facilities clipping, transcribing. This is what we believe is the future.”

Alrashid was asked what the journalist of the future would look like. “He’s a journalist and an engineer. He’s someone who needs to understand data. And I think this is another topic that is extremely important, understanding the data that you’re working with,” she said.

“This is something that AI has facilitated as well. I must say that over the past 20 years in the region, especially when it comes to media companies, we did not understand the importance of data.”

 

The CEO highlighted that previously, media would rely on polling, surveys or viewership numbers, but now more detailed information about what viewers wanted was available. 

During the fireside session, Alrashid was asked how the international community viewed the Middle Eastern media. Alrashid said that over the past decades it had played a critical role in informing wider audiences about issues that were extremely complex — politically, culturally and economically — and continued to play that role. 

“Right now it has a bigger role to play, given the role again of social media, citizen journalists, content creators. But I also do believe that it has been facilitated by the power that AI has. Now immediately, you can ensure that that kind of content that is being created by credible, tier-A journalists, world-class journalists, can travel beyond its borders, can travel instantly to target different geographies, different people, different countries, in different languages, in different formats.”

She said that there was a big opportunity for Arab media not to be limited to simply Arab consumption, but to finally transcend borders and be available in different languages and to cater to their audiences. 

 

The CEO expressed optimism about the future, emphasizing the importance of having a clear vision, a strong strategy, and full team alignment. 

Traditional advertising models, once centered on television and print, were rapidly changing, with social media platforms now dominating advertising revenue.

“It’s drastically changing. Ultimately in the past, we used to compete with one another over viewership. But now we’re also competing with the likes of social media platforms; 80 percent of the advertising revenue in the Middle East goes to the social media platforms, but that means that there’s 80 percent interest opportunities.” 

She said that the challenge was to create the right content on these platforms that engaged the target audiences and enabled commercial partnerships. “I don’t think this is a secret, but brands do not like to advertise with news channels. Ultimately, it’s always related with either conflict or war, which is a deterrent to advertisers. 

“And that’s why we’ve entered new verticals such as sports. And that’s why we also double down on our lifestyle vertical. Ultimately, we have the largest market share when it comes to lifestyle ... And we’ve launched new platforms such as Billboard Arabia that gives us an entry into music.” 

Alrashid said this was why the group was in a strong position to counter the decline in advertising revenues across different platforms, and by introducing new products.

“Another very important IP that we’ve created is events attached to the brands that have been operating in the region for 30-plus years. Any IP or any title right now that doesn’t have an event attached to it is missing out on a very big commercial opportunity that allows us to sit in a room, exchange ideas, talk to one another, get to know one another behind the screen.” 

The CEO said that disruption was now constant and often self-driving, adding that the future of the industry was often in storytelling and the ability to innovate by creating persuasive content that connected directly with the audience. 

“But the next disruption is going to continue to come from AI. And how quickly this tool and this very powerful technology evolves. And whether we are in a position to cope with it, adapt to it, and absorb it fully or not.”