Oil Updates — crude jumps as new US sanctions to curb Russian supply to China, India

Brent crude futures climbed $1.14, or 1.43 percent, to $80.90 a barrel by 10:41 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 13 January 2025
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Oil Updates — crude jumps as new US sanctions to curb Russian supply to China, India

SINGAPORE: Oil prices extended gains for a third session on Monday, with Brent rising above $80 a barrel to its highest in more than four months, as wider US sanctions are expected to affect Russian crude exports to top buyers China and India.

Brent crude futures climbed $1.14, or 1.43 percent, to $80.90 a barrel by 10:41 a.m. Saudi time after hitting an intraday high of $81.49, the highest since Aug. 27.

US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.20, or 1.57 percent to $77.77 a barrel after touching a high of $78.39, the most since Oct. 8.

Brent and WTI have risen by more than 6 percent since Jan. 8, and both contracts surged after the US Treasury imposed wider sanctions on Russian oil on Friday.

The new sanctions included producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as 183 vessels that have shipped Russian oil, targeting the revenue Moscow has used to fund its war with Ukraine.

Russian oil exports will be hurt severely by the new sanctions, pushing China and India, the world’s top and third-largest oil importers respectively, to source more crude from the Middle East, Africa and the Americas, which will boost prices and shipping costs, traders and analysts said.

“Friday’s announcement strengthens our view that the risks to our $70-85 Brent range forecast are skewed to the upside in the short term,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.

“We estimate that the vessels targeted by the new sanctions transported 1.7mb/d of oil in 2024 or 25 percent of Russia’s exports, with the vast majority being crude oil.”

Expectations of tighter supplies have also pushed Brent and WTI monthly spreads to their widest backwardation since the third quarter of 2024. Prompt prices are higher than those in future months in backwardation, indicating tight supply.

RBC Capital Markets analysts said the doubling of tankers sanctioned for moving Russian barrels could serve as a major logistical headwind to crude flows.

Many of the tankers named in the latest sanctions have been used to ship oil to India and China as previous Western sanctions and a price cap imposed by the Group of Seven countries in 2022 shifted trade in Russian oil from Europe to Asia. Some of the ships have also moved oil from Iran, which is also under sanctions.

“The last round of OFAC (US Office of Foreign Assets Control) sanctions targeting Russian oil companies and a very large number of tankers will be consequential in particular for India,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.

JPMorgan analysts said Russia had some room to maneuver despite the new sanctions, but it would ultimately need to acquire non-sanctioned tankers or offer crude at or below $60 a barrel to use Western insurance as per the West’s price cap.
 


Saudi Arabia aims to raise foreign ownership cap in listed companies this year

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Saudi Arabia aims to raise foreign ownership cap in listed companies this year

RIYADH: The Saudi Capital Market Authority has announced that a review of the rules restricting foreign ownership in local stocks is underway, as the Kingdom seeks to further open up to international investors.

Board member Abdulaziz Abdulmohsen Bin Hassan confirmed that “the foreign ownership limits are under review,” referring to the current caps that prevent foreign investors from holding majority stakes in local companies.

He added: “We are committed to completing this and hope to do so this year.”

Review of Cap continues

The remarks, made at the Capital Markets Forum Select in New York on Feb. 2, indicate that the regulator is moving forward with plans to raise the ownership cap from 49 percent this year, following months of uncertainty surrounding the issue.

Bin Hassan did not elaborate on the next steps, but the CMA stated that the review will examine whether the foreign ownership limits should be eliminated entirely or adopted in a phased approach.

A long-awaited decision could boost foreign investment flows

A change to the rules is one of the most anticipated developments in the Saudi financial market in 2026. Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, have stated that the complete removal of the cap could lead to new inflows of around $10 billion into the Riyadh stock exchange.

“Foreign capital is extremely important for Saudi Arabia, and it’s very important to highlight where we were four or five years ago,” Nayef Al-Athel, group chief of sales and marketing officer at Tadawul Group, told Bloomberg in an interview.

“We were a local market driven by individual investments, where about 80 percent of the investor base and liquidity came from individual investors. We made significant efforts to institutionalize the Saudi market, and today we are at a 50/50 split between institutions and individuals, with a large portion of institutional funds coming from foreign investors,” he added.

For his part, Yazeed Al-Dumeiji, CEO of Wamedh, the technology and innovation arm of the Tadawul, said in an interview on the sidelines of the forum that “the vast majority of our clients are from the US and Europe, and we are beginning to see growth from Asian investors, specifically from Singapore, Hong Kong, China, and Japan.”

Saudi Arabia’s anticipated move to liberalize its stock market comes as part of a package of recent reforms, including allowing all foreigners to trade directly in local stocks, and aims to attract more foreign direct investment to the Kingdom. This is part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s efforts to build stronger financial markets, supporting his vision to diversify the economy away from oil with an investment volume approaching $2 trillion.

The Saudi stock market index, TASI, rose 8.5 percent in January, marking its best monthly performance since 2022, partly fueled by optimism surrounding these changes. The index also climbed 1.4 percent on Feb. 2.

Speaking at the Capital Markets Forum Select New York 2026, Tadawul CEO Mohammed Al-Rumaih explained that foreign ownership is expected to increase and reach $100 billion by 2030, according to Al-Eqtisadiah.

He also noted that the Saudi market capitalization now exceeds $2.5 trillion.

“The Saudi capital market is resilient and undergoing a radical transformation,” he said.

The CEO added: “We see many opportunities in our future collaboration with Nasdaq.”