UAE’s non-oil activity sees PMI hit 9-month high; Egypt’s output declines: S&P Global

Buoyant market conditions helped non-oil business owners secure new clients and larger order books. Shutterstock
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Updated 06 January 2025
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UAE’s non-oil activity sees PMI hit 9-month high; Egypt’s output declines: S&P Global

  • S&P Global said Kuwait’s PMI stood at 54.1 in December, marginally down from 55.9 in November

RIYADH: Non-oil business activity in the UAE surged in December, with the Emirates’ Purchasing Managers’ Index jumping to a nine-month high of 55.4, up from 54.2 in November, an economy tracker showed. 

According to S&P Global, the robust expansion was driven by strong demand conditions, underscoring continued growth in the non-oil private sector. 

The performance aligns with the UAE’s broader diversification strategy under its Vision 2031, which focuses on expanding the non-oil sector and promoting industries such as manufacturing, tourism, and technology to ensure sustainable economic growth. 

“The UAE saw its best expansion in non-oil business conditions for nine months in December, with the latest PMI data closing out another year of continuous growth and putting the sector in a strong position for 2025,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Any PMI readings above 50 indicate growth in the non-oil sector, while readings below 50 signal contraction, S&P Global noted. 

Non-oil business owners surveyed said buoyant market conditions helped them secure new clients and larger order books. However, staffing levels rose at one of the slowest rates in more than two-and-a-half years.

“Capacity levels remain under considerable stress, however, illustrated by another marked increase in backlogs of work. Recruitment appears to be the limiting factor — the pace of employment growth was barely changed from November’s 31-month low,” said Owen. 

He added that rising costs and margin pressures discouraged firms from ramping up staffing levels despite growing workloads. 

Input costs increased during December, although inflation eased to its softest pace since March. Meanwhile, optimism among non-oil firms about future growth ticked down for the second consecutive month. 

Dubai’s PMI also reached a nine-month high of 55.5 in December, up from 53.9 in the previous month. 

The emirate saw faster expansions in output and new orders, reflecting stronger client demand and busy market conditions. 

“In both cases, rates of growth were stronger than those observed at the UAE level,” said S&P Global. 

However, the report highlighted weaker optimism among non-oil business firms in Dubai regarding the coming year, with confidence falling to its lowest level since May 2021. Only 6 percent of surveyed companies anticipated output growth in 2025. 

The UAE’s performance highlights the success of economic diversification strategies across Gulf Cooperation Council nations, which continue to reduce reliance on oil revenues. 

The region’s positive trend extended to Saudi Arabia, where the December PMI hit 58.4, driven by a sharp increase in new orders. The Kingdom’s PMI has remained above the neutral 50 mark since September 2020, underlining sustained expansion in the non-oil private sector. 

Egypt’s PMI falls below 50 

In contrast, Egypt’s PMI dropped to 48.1 in December from 49.2 in November, signaling a sharper contraction in private sector activity. Subdued client demand led to the steepest decline in output in eight months, particularly in the construction, wholesale, and retail sectors. 

The analysis noted that activity in the services sector remained relatively stable, benefiting from a steadier level of new business compared to other monitored sectors. 

“The latest Egypt PMI data showed that the non-oil private sector’s anticipated recovery is unlikely to be without its setbacks in 2025. With the Egyptian pound deteriorating against the US dollar, breaching the 50-per-dollar mark in early December, businesses reported higher prices and a slump in demand, leading to the fastest decline in operating conditions since last April,” said Owen. 

He added: “The downturn meant that firms were less keen to raise their own charges in the face of accelerating cost burdens, instead tightening their margins in a bid to salvage orders.” 

Egyptian businesses expressed improved optimism toward the end of 2024, anticipating better domestic and geopolitical conditions in 2025. However, inflationary concerns remained a significant headwind for many firms. 

Kuwait’s non-oil sector continues growth momentum 

In another report, S&P Global said Kuwait’s PMI stood at 54.1 in December, marginally down from 55.9 in November but still above the neutral 50 mark. 

The survey suggested that the PMI reading signaled a solid improvement in business conditions and the third-strongest since September 2018. 

The analysis added that companies operating in Kuwait’s non-energy sector posted a further rapid increase in new orders in December. 

“Kuwait’s private sector backed up November’s strong performance with further rapid growth in the final month of 2024. Rates of increase in new orders and output were only slightly slower than those seen in the previous month,” said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. 

He added: “Alongside advertising and competitive pricing — the twin engines of growth we have seen for some time now — firms also highlighted the positive impact of visitors arriving for the Arabian Gulf Cup.” 

According to the report, companies in Kuwait increased employment for the third consecutive month in response to rising workloads. However, the hiring in December was only marginal, having weakened slightly from November. 

Survey participants expressed strong optimism for business conditions for the next year, driven by expected improvements in economic conditions. 

“One slight setback in the non-oil private sector in December was that employment rose only marginally, thereby contributing to a further accumulation of outstanding business. Firms will hopefully find it easier to hire additional staff in 2025 to help them take advantage of the growth opportunities on offer,” added Harker. 


World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience.
Updated 23 January 2026
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World must prioritize resilience over disruption, economic experts warn

  • Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years
  • Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience

DAVOS: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan urged policymakers and investors to “mute the noise” and focus on resilience, as global leaders gathered in Davos on Friday against a backdrop of trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainty and rapid technological change.

Speaking on the final day of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Al-Jadaan said that much of the anxiety dominating markets reflected a world that had already been shifting for years.

“We need to define who ‘we’ are in this so-called new world order,” he said, arguing that many emerging economies had been adapting to a more fragmented global system for decades.

Pointing to Asia and the Gulf, Al-Jadaan said that some countries had already built models based on diversification and resilience. In energy markets, he pointed out that the focus should remain on balancing supply and demand in a way that incentivized investment without harming the global economy.

“Our role in OPEC is to stabilize the market,” he said.

His remarks were echoed by Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Alibrahim, who said that uncertainty had weighed heavily on growth, investment and geopolitical risk, but that reality had proven more resilient.

“The economy has adjusted and continues to move forward,” Alibrahim said.

Alibrahim warned that pragmatism had become scarce, trust increasingly transactional, and collaboration more fragile. “Stability cannot be quickly built or bought,” he said.

Alibrahim called for a shift away from preserving the status quo towards the practical ingredients that made cooperation work, stressing discipline and long-term thinking even when views diverged.

Quoting Saudi Arabia’s founding King Abdulaziz Al-Saud, he added: “Facing challenges requires strength and confidence, there is no virtue in weakness. We cannot sit idle.”

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde stressed the importance of distinguishing meaningful data from headline noise, saying: “Our duty as central bankers is to separate the signal from the noise. The real numbers are growth numbers not nominal ones.”

Managing Director of the IMF Kristalina Georgieva echoed Lagarde’s sentiments, saying that the world had entered a more “shock prone” environment shaped by technology and geopolitics.

Director General of the World Trade Organization Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said that the global trade systems currently in place were remarkably resilient, pointing out that 72 percent of global trade continued despite disruptions.

She urged governments and businesses, however, to avoid overreacting.

Okonjo Iweala said that a return to the old order was unlikely, but trade would remain essential. Georgieva agreed, saying global trade would continue, albeit in a different form.

Georgieva warned that AI would accelerate economic transformation at an unprecedented speed. The IMF expects 60 percent of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or displaced, with entry-level roles and middle-class workers facing the greatest pressure.

Lagarde warned that without cooperation, capital and data flows would suffer, undermining productivity and growth.

Al-Jadaan said that power dynamics had always shaped global relations, but dialogue remained essential. “The fact that thousands of leaders came here says something,” he said. “Some things cannot be done alone.”

In another session titled Geopolitical Risks Outlook for 2026, former US Democratic representative Jane Harman said that because of AI, the world was safer in some ways but worse off in others.

“I think AI can make the world riskier if it gets in the wrong hands and is used without guardrails to kill all of us. But AI also has enormous promise. AI may be a development tool that moves the third world ahead faster than our world, which has pretty messy politics,” she said.

American economist Eswar Prasad said that currently the world was in a “doom loop.”

Prasad said that the global economy was stuck in a negative-feedback loop and economics, domestic politics and geopolitics were only bringing out the worst in each other.

“Technology could lead to shared prosperity but what we are seeing is much more concentration of economic and financial power within and between countries, potentially making it a destabilizing force,” he said.

Prasad predicted that AI and tech development would impact growing economies the most. But he said that there was uncertainty about whether these developments would create job opportunities and growth in developing countries.

Professor of international political economy at the University of New South Wales in Australia, Elizabeth Thurbon, said that China was driving a Green Energy transition in a way that should be modeled by the rest of the world.

“The Chinese government is using the Green Energy Transition to boost energy security and is manufacturing its own energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuel imports,” she explained.

Thurbon said that China was using this transition to boost economic security, social security and geostrategic security. She viewed this as a huge security-enhancing opportunity and every country had the ability to use the energy transition as a national security multiplier. 

“We are seeing an enormous dynamism across emerging market economies driven by China. This boom loop is being driven by enormous investments in green energy. Two-thirds of global investment flowing into renewable energy is driven largely by China,” she said.

Thurbon said that China was taking an interesting approach to building relationships with countries by putting economic engagement on the forefront of what they had to offer.

“China is doing all it can to ensure economic partnership with emerging economies are productive. It’s important to approach alliances as not just political alliances but investment in economy, future and the flourishment of a state,” she said.

The panel criticized global economic treaties and laws, and expressed the need for immediate reforms in economic governing bodies.

“If you are a developing economy, the rules of the WTO, for example, are not helpful for you to develop. A lot of the rules make it difficult to pursue an economic development agenda. These regulations are not allowing the economies to grow,” Thurbon said.

“Serious reform must be made in international trade agreements, economic bodies and rules and guidelines,” she added.

Prasad echoed this sentiment and said there was a need for national and international reform in global economic institutions.

“These institutions are not working very well so we can reconfigure them or rebuild them from scratch. But unfortunately the task of rebuilding falls into the hands of those who are shredding them,” he said.

WEF attendees were invited to join the Global Collaboration and Growth meeting to be held in Saudi Arabia in April 2026 to continue addressing the complex global challenges and engage in dialogue.