GCC debt capital market hits $1tn, poised for continued growth: Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings’ latest report highlights the growth trajectory of the GCC’s DCM, with expectations that it will remain one of the largest issuers of emerging-market dollar-denominated debt in 2025 and 2026. File
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Updated 18 December 2024
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GCC debt capital market hits $1tn, poised for continued growth: Fitch Ratings

  • Saudi Arabia leads the region followed by the UAE and Qatar

RIYADH: The debt capital market in the Gulf Cooperation Council region has surpassed the $1 trillion mark in outstanding debt as of November, fueled by strong oil revenues, according to a recent analysis.

Fitch Ratings’ latest report highlights the growth trajectory of the GCC’s DCM, with expectations that it will remain one of the largest issuers of emerging-market dollar-denominated debt in 2025 and 2026.

The DCM refers to markets where securities like bonds and promissory notes are traded, offering governments and companies a means of securing long-term funding.

Saudi Arabia leads the region’s DCM, followed by the UAE and Qatar. In September, Fitch projected that the Kingdom’s DCM would exceed $500 billion in outstanding debt, driven by the financing needs for mega-projects under the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 and its broader economic diversification strategy.

Bashar Al-Natoor, global head of Islamic Finance at Fitch Ratings, noted that the DCM had grown by 11 percent year on year, reaching the $1 trillion milestone by the end of November 2024. Of this, approximately 40 percent is in the form of sukuk.

“The market is set for further expansion in 2025, driven by the need to finance government initiatives, maturing debt, fiscal deficits, diversification efforts, and ongoing regulatory reforms,” Al-Natoor explained. “We rate about 70 percent of GCC US dollar sukuk, of which 81 percent are investment-grade, with no defaults.”

The report also forecasts that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates by 125 basis points to 3.5 percent by the fourth quarter of 2025. This is expected to prompt most GCC central banks to follow suit, creating a more favorable funding environment.

However, Fitch warned that ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East could hinder the region’s DCM growth. “While four out of six GCC sovereigns maintain investment-grade ratings with stable outlooks, any escalation in regional conflicts could pose risks,” the agency stated.

Fitch also flagged potential risks related to Sharia compliance, particularly concerning AAOIFI Standard 62, which governs the structure of Islamic finance transactions. The guidelines cover a range of issues, including Shariah-compliant issuance requirements, asset backing, ownership transfers, investment structures, and trading procedures.

The DCM landscape in the GCC remains uneven. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE boast the most developed markets, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman follow, with Kuwait having the least mature market. Kuwait is reportedly working on updating its liquidity law to facilitate borrowing in capital markets, though the timeline for this reform remains unclear.


Future Minerals Forum launches global index to track critical mineral supply chains 

Updated 57 min 29 sec ago
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Future Minerals Forum launches global index to track critical mineral supply chains 

RIYADH: The Future Minerals Forum on Jan. 12 launched the “Future Minerals Index Report,” a first-of-its-kind global tool designed to measure and track progress in developing critical mineral value chains across producing, exporting, and consuming countries.  

The initiative aims to support the creation of more resilient and responsible supply chains and promote sustainable development worldwide.  

Khalid Al-Mudaifer, vice minister of industry and mineral resources for mining affairs, stated: “The Future Minerals Index Report is an unprecedented and essential document; it is an intellectual tool that highlights key trends in the mining and minerals sector, particularly in terms of insights and directions from sector stakeholders, including government leaders, global mining executives, experts, and interested parties.”   

He pointed out that the report is distinguished by its tracking of developments in mineral supplies and its provision of actionable recommendations to ensure the sustainable development of critical mineral value chains. 

Al-Mudaifer described the report as a new international benchmark that establishes a comprehensive baseline to measure the progress of governments, companies, and investors in enhancing more resilient and responsible mineral supply chains.   

He said it provides a clear picture of how global critical mineral markets are shaped by capital, risk, and trust dynamics. “It shows where investment is growing or shrinking and identifies the widening gap between resource availability and capital allocation. Based on this baseline, the report will monitor changes in risk perceptions, investment flows, and progress toward more resilient mineral value chains.”  

Ali Al-Mutairi, general supervisor of the Future Minerals Forum, emphasized the report’s importance and the attention it received at the forum due to its role in highlighting global trends in the mining sector.   

He explained that the report was prepared in partnership with McKinsey & Co. and in collaboration with other sector experts, including S&P Global Market Intelligence, Global AI, and GlobeScan.  

“It integrates stakeholder trends, data, market insights, and intelligence into a single reference that supports global mining and mineral sector decision-making,” he said.  

Jeffrey Lorsch, partner at McKinsey & Co., commented: “The Future Minerals Index Report, by integrating market data, stakeholder perspectives, and value chain standards, provides a strategic roadmap to help companies navigate volatility and unlock long-term growth opportunities.”  

The report is based on the “Future Minerals Framework,” developed with contributions from 47 experts across multilateral organizations, non-profits, and private companies. It was first introduced at the 2025 International Ministerial Meeting.   

The framework outlines key enablers for end-to-end value chains, including supportive policies and regulations, innovative financing solutions to secure and manage investments, multimodal infrastructure such as roads, railways, and ports to reduce costs and increase viability, and sustainability through strong environmental and social governance frameworks.   

It also includes talent development through education, training, R&D, technological modernization via updated geological data systems and global expertise partnerships, and geology through reliable, accessible geological data in producing, exporting, and consuming countries as a critical factor in attracting investment.  

The report highlighted the world’s urgent need to sustain mineral supplies, featuring contributions from leading industry figures.  

Robert Friedland, founder of Ivanhoe Mines, Ivanhoe Electric, and I-Pulse, stated that the electrification of energy systems, digitalization of the economy, and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence are converging toward a future that increasingly depends on minerals.   

He stressed: “You can’t reduce emissions, build computing systems, or transport energy without mining.”  

Bob Wilt, CEO of Ma’aden, said in the report: “We are not fully prepared to deliver the minerals the world needs. Our biggest challenges are not equipment, capital, or technology — but people.”  

Duncan Wanblad, CEO of Anglo American, noted that global copper demand is expected to grow by 75 percent to reach 56 million tonnes annually by 2050. To meet this demand and offset declines from aging mines, the sector will need to open approximately 60 new mines the size of Quellaveco within the next decade alone.  

Gustavo Pimenta, CEO of Vale, said in his contribution: “I can’t imagine a future without mining — at least not a sustainable one that balances economic development with environmental protection and social responsibility. Mining has become essential to everything.”  

The release of the Future Minerals Index Report coincides with the upcoming fifth edition of the Future Minerals Forum, being held from Jan. 13 to 15, 2026, in Riyadh under the patronage of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. The event is held under the theme “Minerals: Facing the Challenges of a New Era of Development.”  

The forum will host a wide range of ministers and CEOs from leading global mining companies, reflecting its stature as a global platform in the mining sector and a key event showcasing Saudi Arabia’s leadership in shaping the future of minerals regionally and internationally.