BEIRUT: Thousands of people fled the central Syrian city of Homs, the country’s third largest, as insurgents seized two towns on the outskirts Friday, positioning themselves for an assault on a potentially major prize in their march against President Bashar Assad.
The move, reported by pro-government media and an opposition war monitor, was the latest in the stunning advances by opposition fighters over the past week that have so far met little resistance from Assad’s forces. A day earlier, fighters captured the central city of Hama, Syria’s fourth largest, after the army said it withdrew to avoid fighting inside the city and spare the lives of civilians.
The insurgents, led by the jihadi Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham group, or HTS, have vowed to march to Homs and the capital, Damascus, Assad’s seat of power. Videos circulating online showed a highway jammed with cars full of people fleeing Homs, a city with a large population belonging to Assad’s Alawite sect, seen as his core supporters.
If Assad’s military loses Homs, it could be a crippling blow. The city, parts of which were controlled by insurgents until 2014, stands at an important intersection between Damascus and Syria’s coastal provinces of Latakia and Tartus, where Assad enjoys wide support. Homs province is Syria’s largest in size and borders Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan.
Pressure on the government intensified from multiple directions.
Opposition protesters stormed security posts and army positions in the southern province of Sweida, opposition activists said. US-backed Kurdish forces who control eastern and northeastern Syria began to encroach on government-held territory.
Offensive leaves Assad reliant on Russia
After years of largely being bottled up in a northwest corner of the country, the insurgents burst out a week ago, captured the northern city of Aleppo, Syria’s largest, and have kept advancing since. Government troops have repeatedly fallen back.
The sudden offensive has flipped the tables on a long-entrenched stalemate in Syria’s nearly 14-year-old civil war. Along with HTS, the fighters include forces of an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. Turkiye has denied backing the offensive, though experts say insurgents would not have launched it without the country’s consent.
HTS’s leader, Abu Mohammad Al-Golani, told CNN in an exclusive interview Thursday from Syria that Assad’s government was on the path to falling, propped up only by Russia and Iran.
“The seeds of the regime’s defeat have always been within it,” he said. “But the truth remains, this regime is dead.”
A key question about Assad’s ability to fight back is how much top ally Russia — whose troops back Assad’s forces — will throw support his way at a time when it is tied up in the war in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he planned to discuss the developments in Syria with his Turkish and Iranian counterparts at a meeting Friday in the Qatari capital, Doha.
In an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, he said international actors were backing the insurgents’ advances and that he would discuss “the way to cut the channels of financing and arming them.”
Meanwhile, Russia’s embassy in Syria issued a notice reminding Russian citizens that they may use commercial flights to leave the country “in view of the difficult military-political situation.”
The foreign ministers of Iran, Iraq and Syria — three close allies — gathered Friday in Baghdad to consult on the rapidly changing war. Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh said the current developments may pose “a serious threat to the security of the region as a whole.”
Assad opponents move in center, south and east
The insurgent fighters on Friday took over the central towns of Rastan and Talbiseh, putting them 5 kilometers (3 miles) from Homs, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition war monitor.
“The battle of Homs is the mother of all battles and will decide who will rule Syria,” said Rami Abdurrahman, the Observatory’s chief.
Pro-government Sham FM said the insurgents entered Rastan and Talbiseh without facing any resistance. There was no immediate comment from the Syrian military.
The Observatory said Syrian troops had left Homs. But the military denied that in comments reported by the state news agency SANA, saying troops were reinforcing their positions in the city and were “ready to repel” any assault.
In eastern Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces coalition said it had moved into the government-held half of the city of Deir Ezzor, apparently without resistance. One of the main cities in the east, Deir Ezzor had long been split between the government on the western side of the Euphrates River and the SDF on the eastern side.
The SDF also said it took control of further parts of the border with Iraq. That appeared to bring it closer to the government-held Boukamal border crossing. The crossing is a vital for the government because it is the gateway to the corridor to Iran, a supply line for Iran-backed fighters, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
At the same time, insurgents seized Syria’s sole crossing to Jordan, according to opposition activists. Jordan announced it was closing its side of the crossing. Lebanon also closed all but one of its border crossings with Syria.
Worsening economy could hurt Assad’s war effort
The opposition assault has struck a blow to Syria’s already decrepit economy. On Friday, the US dollar was selling on Syria’s parallel market for about 18,000 pounds, a 25 percent drop from a week ago. When Syria’s conflict erupted in March 2011, a dollar was valued at 47 pounds.
The drop further undermines the purchasing power of Syrians at a time when the UN has warned that 90 percent of the population is below the poverty line.
Syria’s economy has been hammered for years by the war, Western sanctions, corruption and an economic meltdown in neighboring Lebanon, Syria’s main gate to the outside world.
Damascus residents told The Associated Press that people are rushing to markets to buy food, fearing further escalation.
The worsening economy could be undermining the ability of Syria’s military to fight, as the value of soldiers’ salaries melts away while the insurgents are flush with cash.
Syria’s military has not appeared to put up a cohesive counteroffensive against the opposition advances. SANA on Friday quoted an unnamed military official as saying the Syrian and Russian air forces were striking insurgents in Hama province, killing dozens of fighters.
Syria’s defense minister said in a televised statement late Thursday that government forces withdrew from Hama as “a temporary tactical measure” and vowed to gain back lost areas.
“We are in a good position on the ground,” Gen. Ali Mahmoud Abbas said, saying troops remained “at the gates of Hama.” He spoke before the opposition advanced further south toward Homs.
He said the insurgents, whom he described as “takfiri” or Muslim extremists, are backed by foreign countries. He did not name the countries but appeared to be referring to Turkiye and the United States.
Thousands flee Homs as Syrian militants push on lightning offensive
https://arab.news/62paf
Thousands flee Homs as Syrian militants push on lightning offensive
- Militants have captured two major cities so far and are now thrusting toward Homs
- Seizing Homs would cut off Damascus from the coast, a longtime redoubt of Bashar Assad
Great expectations: Yemenis look forward to outcomes of Riyadh dialogue
- Southern factions look to Saudi-hosted talks to defuse tensions after December’s violent escalation
- Analysts say Riyadh dialogue could help reset the southern cause — but only if militias are excluded
RIYADH: Last December marked a troubled end to the year in Yemen, particularly in its southern and eastern governorates. While much of the world marked the season with hopes for peace and stability, developments on the ground took a sharply different turn.
The Southern Transitional Council (STC), led by Aidarous Al-Zubaidi, moved to seize control of state institutions and military camps, defying expectations in Hadramout and Al-Mahra and mounting a direct challenge to the internationally recognized government.
These actions, carried out through armed force and supported by external actors, led to casualties and an escalation of tensions in both governorates.
In response, Yemen’s political leadership appealed to the Saudi-led coalition to contain the situation, called for the withdrawal of Emirati forces, and initiated operations to reassert control over military headquarters in Hadramout and Al-Mahra.
Subsequently, Rashad Mohammed Al-Alimi, chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, asked Saudi Arabia to host a conference in Riyadh, bringing together all southern factions to discuss solutions — a request accepted by the Saudi leadership.
The initiative comes amid the Kingdom’s affirmation of the legitimacy of the southern cause, coupled with its clear rejection of any solution imposed by force.
Arab News surveyed the views of several Yemeni politicians and analysts on their expectations for the conference, convened at a critical and highly sensitive juncture, and on the key issues anticipated to dominate the dialogue.
Among them was Salah Batis, a member of the Yemeni Shura Council, a member of the Preparatory Committee for the Unified Council of the Eastern Governorates, and a prominent figure in Hadramout.
“We extend our sincere gratitude to our brothers in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia — both leadership and people — for their steadfast support, assistance, and courageous stand alongside the people of Hadramout and the eastern governorates in particular, and Yemen as a whole,” Batis told Arab News.
“Without this support, and without the role of the Saudi Air Force, this victory would not have been achieved, security would not have been restored, and this militia would not have been removed from these sensitive areas, especially Hadramout and the eastern governorates.
“We also express our appreciation to the political leadership, represented by the chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, Dr. Rashad Al-Alimi, and to the governor of Hadramout and commander of the Homeland Shield Forces, Salem Al-Khanbashi.
“Our gratitude further extends to the heroes of the Homeland Shield Forces, the armed forces, and the security forces who participated in the operation to take control of the camps. It was a swift and decisive operation, carried out at minimal cost, praise be to God.”
However, Batis said he opposes the inclusion of the STC in the upcoming Riyadh conference, citing its involvement in the killing and terrorizing of civilians in Hadramout and Al-Mahra.
He described the call for dialogue as “a positive step toward preserving the southern cause, which the STC had sought to hijack and undermine, nearly causing severe damage had it not been for swift and decisive intervention.”
Batis said the southern cause must represent all southerners without exception, and that no single party should monopolize it or claim exclusive representation. He said the STC had already harmed the cause by using armed violence to advance its agenda, resulting in killings.
For this reason, he said, the people of Hadramout — where many of these violations occurred — have demanded, and continue to demand, accountability for those responsible and their exclusion from the dialogue.
He accused the STC of mobilizing armed forces, invading governorates, killing tribesmen, attacking villages and civilians, storming and looting state camps, and destroying public institutions, including airports, ports, oil facilities, and government offices in Seiyun, Mukalla, and other locations.
Batis said the STC and its leadership bear full responsibility, arguing they had led and directed the armed groups toward Hadramout under the banner of southern forces.
He questioned how the people of Hadramout and the eastern governorates could accept belonging to such a region after what had occurred, noting that these forces operated under a declared leadership and a self-proclaimed supreme commander.
Batis said local communities viewed them as invading forces that killed civilians, shed blood, attacked state institutions, and seized military camps.
He added that, were it not for the decisive intervention of allied forces and local authorities — leading to the return of the camps, the repair of the damage, and the withdrawal of these militias to their original positions — the consequences would have been far more severe.
“I believe this dialogue and conference must have a clear and firm framework: no group that possesses weapons, militias, or armed forces should take part,” Batis said.
“Arms must be exclusively in the hands of the state, under the authority of the ministries of defense and interior, and sovereignty must rest solely with the state — not with parties, factions, or individuals.”
Batis warned against repeating what he described as the mistake of 2013, when the Houthi group was allowed to participate in the National Dialogue Conference while still armed and expanding its territorial control.
He recalled that by January 2014 the Houthis had seized Amran Governorate and laid siege to Sanaa, halting the drafting of the federal constitution and forcing meetings to be held at the Presidential Palace.
Batis noted that he was serving at the time as vice president of the National Authority tasked with monitoring the implementation of the dialogue’s outcomes, before the Houthis later stormed the capital and plunged the country into a crisis that continues to this day.
For his part, political analyst and activist Youssef Ismail Abdo said that any fair and equitable outcomes from the conference would help stabilize the south — particularly Hadramawt and the eastern governorates — fostering security, development, and stability, with positive implications for all of Yemen and the wider region.
Also speaking to Arab News, Dr. Nasser bin Habtour, secretary-general of the Shabwa National Council, said that “the south is home to multiple political projects, including secession and a federal state.
“The events of December demonstrated that not all southerners support secession, leaving the STC isolated in its unilateral move. In my opinion, all political options should be placed on the dialogue table so that southerners can discuss them and reach a unified vision.”
He argued that “secession is neither feasible nor appropriate at the present stage, given Yemen’s dire circumstances, with the Houthi militia controlling Sanaa and state institutions and posing a serious threat to Yemen and the wider region.”
He stressed that “restoring the Yemeni state must come first, after which all political projects can be presented to the people, who should then decide the future form of the state.”
He added: “The meeting, to be held in Riyadh, came at the request of southern political and social figures and groups who convened after recognizing both their responsibility and the danger into which the STC had placed the southern cause.
“They contacted the chairman of the Presidential Leadership Council, urging him to ask the Kingdom to host a southern dialogue conference.” He noted that “this initiative was consistent with Saudi Arabia’s longstanding role in supporting Yemen.”
“The conference must focus on repairing the damage inflicted on the southern cause by the STC’s unilateral decisions and attempts to monopolize it, as well as restoring the issue to its proper course through a consensual vision shared by the people of the south.”
Regarding the expected outcomes of the comprehensive southern national dialogue, Habtour said: “The first priority is reaching consensus on a unified southern vision that reflects the aspirations of the people of the south.”
He added: “The southern issue must be situated within the broader national struggle to restore the state from the Houthi militia, as well as integrated into the negotiation process aimed at restoring security and stability in Yemen.”
He further stressed “the importance of defining the role of southerners in the upcoming phase, particularly within the framework of a future federal state and their contribution to nation-building and development.”
