Win the vote but still lose? Behold America’s Electoral College

Combo image showing Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris campaigning as the Nov. 5, 2024, US election approaches. (AFP photos)
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Updated 03 November 2024
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Win the vote but still lose? Behold America’s Electoral College

  • What matters most in a US presidential election is who gets more than 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes, regardless of who gets the most popular votes
  • Because many states predictably lean Republican or Democratic, presidential candidates focus heavily on the handful of “swing” states on which the election will likely turn

WASHINGTON: When political outsider Donald Trump defied polls and expectations to defeat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election, he described the victory as “beautiful.”
Not everyone saw it that way — considering that Democrat Clinton had received nearly three million more votes nationally than her Republican rival. Non-Americans were particularly perplexed that the second-highest vote-getter would be the one crowned president.
But Trump had done what the US system requires: win enough individual states, sometimes by very narrow margins, to surpass the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win the White House.
Now, on the eve of the 2024 election showdown between Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, the rules of this enigmatic and, to some, outmoded, system is coming back into focus.

The 538 members of the US Electoral College gather in their state’s respective capitals after the quadrennial presidential election to designate the winner.
A presidential candidate must obtain an absolute majority of the “electors” — or 270 of the 538 — to win.

The system originated with the US Constitution in 1787, establishing the rules for indirect, single-round presidential elections.
The country’s Founding Fathers saw the system as a compromise between direct presidential elections with universal suffrage, and an election by members of Congress — an approach rejected as insufficiently democratic.
Because many states predictably lean Republican or Democratic, presidential candidates focus heavily on the handful of “swing” states on which the election will likely turn — nearly ignoring some large states such as left-leaning California and right-leaning Texas.
Over the years, hundreds of amendments have been proposed to Congress in efforts to modify or abolish the Electoral College. None has succeeded.
Trump’s 2016 victory rekindled debate. And if the 2024 race is the nail-biter that most polls predict, the Electoral College will surely return to the spotlight.

Who are the electors?

Most are local elected officials or party leaders, but their names do not appear on ballots.
Each state has as many electors as it has members in the US House of Representatives (a number dependent on the state’s population), plus the Senate (two in every state, regardless of size).
California, for example, has 54 electors; Texas has 40; and sparsely populated Alaska, Delaware, Vermont and Wyoming have only three each.
The US capital city, Washington, also gets three electors, despite having no voting members in Congress.
The Constitution leaves it to states to decide how their electors’ votes should be cast. In every state but two (Nebraska and Maine, which award some electors by congressional district), the candidate winning the most votes theoretically is allotted all that state’s electors.

How do electors vote?

In November 2016, Trump won 306 electoral votes, well more than the 270 needed.
The extraordinary situation of losing the popular vote but winning the White House was not unprecedented.
Five presidents have risen to the office this way, the first being John Quincy Adams in 1824.
More recently, the 2000 election resulted in an epic Florida entanglement between Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore.
Gore won nearly 500,000 more votes nationwide, but when Florida — ultimately following a US Supreme Court intervention — was awarded to Bush, it pushed his Electoral College total to 271 and a hair’s-breadth victory.

Nothing in the Constitution obliges electors to vote one way or another.
If some states required them to respect the popular vote and they failed to do so, they were subjected to a simple fine. But in July 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that states could impose punishments on such “faithless electors.”
To date, faithless electors have never determined a US election outcome.

When do electors vote?

Electors will gather in their state capitals on December 17 and cast votes for president and vice president. US law states they “meet and cast their vote on the first Tuesday after the second Wednesday in December.”
On January 6, 2025, Congress will convene to certify the winner — a nervously watched event this cycle, four years after a mob of Trump supporters attacked the US Capitol attempting to block certification.
But there is a difference. Last time, it was Republican vice president Mike Pence who, as president of the Senate, was responsible for overseeing the certification. Defying heavy pressure from Trump and the mob, he certified Biden’s victory.
This time, the president of the Senate — overseeing what normally would be the pro forma certification — will be none other than today’s vice president: Kamala Harris.
On January 20, the new president is to be sworn in.
 


Tanzania tourism suffers after election killings

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Tanzania tourism suffers after election killings

  • Tanzania’s white beaches and safari lodges are emptier than usual as the country counts the cost to its crucial tourism sector from the mass killing of protesters during recent election unrest
NAIROBI: Tanzania’s white beaches and safari lodges are emptier than usual as the country counts the cost to its crucial tourism sector from the mass killing of protesters during recent election unrest.
The election on October 29 erupted into days of violent protests over allegations that President Samia Suluhu Hassan had rigged the vote.
Police responded by shooting dead more than 1,000 people, according to the opposition, though the government has still not given a final body count.
With fresh protests called for December 9, there are fears of more disruption to come.
“The current situation is very disturbing,” said a hotel manager in Arusha, one of the cities serving as a gateway to the Serengeti safari park.
“In my hotel, 150 bookings and four international events that were planned for December have been canceled so far,” the manager said, adding the hotel was below 30 percent full, compared to two-thirds or higher for that period normally.
The government has insisted there is nothing for tourists to fear.
“Our nation remains peaceful, calm, and open to all,” spokesman Gerson Msigwa told reporters.
Beyond the Internet blackout and canceled flights at the height of the unrest, tourists have indeed been largely unaffected.
“I don’t think it’s having a real impact on us foreigners,” said French tourist Jeremy Fuzel, shopping for handicrafts with his wife and young daughter on the island of Zanzibar.
But business has been noticeably slow, said shopkeepers in the island’s capital, Stone Town.
“Sometimes there are a few slow days, but not two weeks in a row like this,” said Nazir Adam, a jeweller. “It’s the topic everyone is talking about here right now.”
- ‘Fear to speak’ -
That is a problem in the east African country where tourism has become the biggest revenue source, attracting a record 2.14 million international visitors last year and projected to make nearly $4 billion this year.
“Many people may fear to speak about the real situation but almost half of the tourism business is disrupted,” said a tour operator in Arusha, speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of violent reprisals by the police.
Activists say tourists should stay away to punish the government for its violence.
“If you go snorkelling or swimming you might find body parts as we received solid information that bodies were dumped into the Indian Ocean,” said exiled activist Maria Sarungi Tsehai on X.
But others say tourism’s real problems stem from recent counter-productive government policies.
Nora Suleiman, founder of the Nakupenda Tours agency on Zanzibar, blamed a new $44 insurance fee and $90 passenger tax on plane tickets for putting off tourists.
Patrice Caradec, head of French tour operators union SETO, said the biggest problem was a ban on Tanzanian airlines flying in the European Union this year over a lack of safety personnel.
“Tanzania has been a hit with the French for several years,” but it dropped by 15-18 percent this summer, he said, largely because of the airline ban.
- ‘Rebuilding confidence’ -
The most frustrating aspect, Caradec said, was that SETO sent a team to help Tanzania deal with the paperwork to get the ban removed, but it was ignored by the Tanzanian government.
“Between the blacklisted airlines... and the riots, I can confirm that quite a few of our compatriots have decided not to go,” he said.
Mabrian, a consultancy using artificial intelligence to measure global sentiment about countries and industries, made a more direct link to the election unrest.
It found there was a 14 percent drop in its perception-of-security index for Tanzania in November among international travelers year-on-year. Hotel prices were also down 14 percent.
“Even once the political situation stabilizes, rebuilding confidence in travelers’ safety and security will remain a crucial and urgent challenge for Tanzania,” said Mabrian analyst Carlos Cendra.