DUBAI: Israel’s attack on Iran likely damaged a base run by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard that builds ballistic missiles and launches rockets as part of its own space program, satellite images analyzed by The Associated Press on Tuesday showed.
The damage at the base in Shahroud raises new questions about Israel’s attack early Saturday, particularly as it took place in an area previously unacknowledged by Tehran and involved the Guard, a powerful force within Iran’s theocracy that so far has remained silent about any possible damage it suffered from the assault. Iran only has identified Israeli attacks as taking place in Ilam, Khuzestan and Tehran provinces — not in rural Semnan province where the base is located.
It also potentially further restrains the Guard’s ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic missiles it needs to stockpile as a deterrent against Israel. Tehran long has relied on that arsenal as it cannot purchase the advanced Western weapons that Israel and Tehran’s Gulf Arab neighbors have armed themselves with over the years, particularly from the United States.
Satellite photos earlier analyzed by the AP of two military bases near Tehran also targeted by Israel shows sites there Iran uses in its ballistic missile manufacturing have been destroyed, further squeezing its program.
“We don’t know if Iranian production has been crippled as some people are saying or just damaged,” said Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran. “We’ve seen enough imagery to show there’s an impact.”
Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment, nor did the Israeli military.
Images show major building at Shahroud base destroyed
High-resolution satellite images from Planet Labs PBC taken for and analyzed by the AP showed the damage at the Guard’s Shahroud Space Center in Semnan, some 370 kilometers (230 miles) northeast of the Iranian capital, Tehran. Semnan also hosts the Imam Khomeini Space Center, which is used by Iran’s civilian space program.
The images showed a central, major building at the Shahroud Space Center had been destroyed, the shadow of its still-standing frame seen in the image taken Tuesday morning. Vehicles could be seen gathered around the site, likely from officials inspecting the damage, with more cars than normal parked at the site’s main gate nearby.
Three small buildings just to the south of the main structure also appeared to be damaged. Iran has been constructing new buildings at the base in recent months. Another hangar to the northeast of the main building also appeared to have been damaged.
Iran has not acknowledged any attack at Shahroud. However, given the damage done to multiple structures, it suggested the Israeli attack included pinpoint strikes on the base. Low-resolution images since the attack showed signs of damage at the site not seen before the assault — further pointing to Israeli missile strikes as being the culprit.
“We can’t 100 percent exclude the possibility it’s something else, but it’s almost certain this building got damaged because of an Israeli attack,” Hinz said.
Given that the large building had been surrounded by earthen berms, that suggests it handled high explosives, said Hinz, who long has studied the site. That central site likely deals with solid propellant mixing and casting operations, he added.
Large boxes next to the building likely are missile motor crates as well, Hinz said. Their sizes suggest they could be used for Iran’s Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile and the Fattah 1, a missile that Iran has claimed is able to reach Mach 15 — which is 15 times the speed of sound. Both have been used in Iran’s attacks on Israel during the Israel-Hamas war and the later ground invasion of Lebanon.
The strike at Shahroud, coupled with others across the country, likely have put more pressure on Iran’s theocracy, particularly as it assesses the damage to its main weapon arsenal and tries to downplay the attack.
“Due to preparedness and vigilance of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s armed forces, and timely reaction by the country’s air defense, limited damage was caused to some of the points hit,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claimed in a meeting with foreign diplomats Tuesday in Tehran. “Necessary measures were taken immediately to restore the damaged equipment to operational state.”
US worries Guard’s space program a cover for missile research
A short distance from the destroyed buildings sits a concrete launch pad used by the Guard, which has conducted a series of successful missions putting satellites into space using mobile launchers. The Guard, which answers only to 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, revealed its secret space program back in 2020.
The US intelligence community’s 2024 worldwide threat assessment said Iran’s continued development of satellite launch vehicles “would shorten the timeline to produce” an intercontinental ballistic missile because it uses similar technology.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles can be used to deliver nuclear weapons. Iran is now producing uranium close to weapons-grade levels after the collapse of its nuclear deal with world powers. Tehran has enough enriched uranium for “several” nuclear weapons, if it chooses to produce them, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency repeatedly has warned.
Iran has always denied seeking nuclear weapons and says its space program, like its nuclear activities, is for purely civilian purposes. However, US intelligence agencies and the IAEA say Iran had an organized military nuclear program up until 2003. Parchin, one of the two military bases near Tehran targeted by Israel, saw a building linked to that program destroyed.
“Like with Iran’s nuclear program, you don’t build the system itself, you build all the technology under cover of a civilian program,” Hinz said.
Then, Iran could make the decision to pursue the weapon — or use its knowledge as a bargaining chip with the West over international sanctions.
But for now, the satellite photos suggest Iran is still trying to assess the aftermath of Israel’s attack.
“The picture that is emerging is one of significant damage to Iranian air defenses as well as missile launch facilities, both of which would be intended to show the Iranians that they are vulnerable to further strikes if they attempt retaliation,” an analysis published Monday by two experts at Britain’s Royal United Services Institute said.
Satellite photos show Israeli strike likely hit important Iran Revolutionary Guard missile base
https://arab.news/54fps
Satellite photos show Israeli strike likely hit important Iran Revolutionary Guard missile base
- The damage at the base in Shahroud raises new questions about Israel’s attack early Saturday
- Attack potentially further restrains the Guard’s ability to manufacture the solid-fuel ballistic missiles
A ceasefire holds in Syria but civilians live with fear and resentment
- The Arab-majority population in the areas that changed hands, Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, have celebrated the SDF’s withdrawal after largely resenting its rule
- But thousands of Kurdish residents of those areas fled, and non-Kurdish residents remain in Kurdish-majority enclaves still controlled by the SDF
QAMISHLI: Fighting this month between Syria’s government and Kurdish-led forces left civilians on either side of the frontline fearing for their future or harboring resentment as the country’s new leaders push forward with transition after years of civil war.
The fighting ended with government forces capturing most of the territory previously held by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the country’s northeast, and a fragile ceasefire is holding. SDF fighters will be absorbed into Syria’s army and police, ending months of disputes.
The Arab-majority population in the areas that changed hands, Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, have celebrated the SDF’s withdrawal after largely resenting its rule.
But thousands of Kurdish residents of those areas fled, and non-Kurdish residents remain in Kurdish-majority enclaves still controlled by the SDF. The International Organization for Migration has registered more than 173,000 people displaced.
Fleeing again and again
Subhi Hannan is among them, sleeping in a chilly schoolroom in the SDF-controlled city of Qamishli with his wife, three children and his mother after fleeing Raqqa.
The family is familiar with displacement after the years of civil war under former President Bashar Assad. They were first displaced from their hometown of Afrin in 2018, in an offensive by Turkish-backed rebels. Five years later, Hannan stepped on a land mine and lost his legs.
During the insurgent offensive that ousted Assad in December 2024, the family fled again, landing in Raqqa.
In the family’s latest flight this month, Hannan said their convoy was stopped by government fighters, who arrested most of their escort of SDF fighters and killed one. Hannan said fighters also took his money and cell phone and confiscated the car the family was riding in.
“I’m 42 years old and I’ve never seen something like this,” Hannan said. “I have two amputated legs, and they were hitting me.”
Now, he said, “I just want security and stability, whether it’s here or somewhere else.”
The father of another family in the convoy, Khalil Ebo, confirmed the confrontation and thefts by government forces, and said two of his sons were wounded in the crossfire.
Syria’s defense ministry in a statement acknowledged “a number of violations of established laws and disciplinary regulations” by its forces during this month’s offensive and said it is taking legal action against perpetrators.
A change from previous violence
The level of reported violence against civilians in the clashes between government and SDF fighters has been far lower than in fighting last year on Syria’s coast and in the southern province of Sweida. Hundreds of civilians from the Alawite and Druze religious minorities were killed in revenge attacks, many of them carried out by government-affiliated fighters.
This time, government forces opened “humanitarian corridors” in several areas for Kurdish and other civilians to flee. Areas captured by government forces, meanwhile, were largely Arab-majority with populations that welcomed their advance.
One term of the ceasefire says government forces should not enter Kurdish-majority cities and towns. But residents of Kurdish enclaves remain fearful.
The city of Kobani, surrounded by government-controlled territory, has been effectively besieged, with residents reporting cuts to electricity and water and shortages of essential supplies. A UN aid convoy entered the enclave for the first time Sunday.
On the streets of SDF-controlled Qamishli, armed civilians volunteered for overnight patrols to watch for any attack.
“We left and closed our businesses to defend our people and city,” said one volunteer, Suheil Ali. “Because we saw what happened in the coast and in Sweida and we don’t want that to be repeated here.”
Resentment remains
On the other side of the frontline in Raqqa, dozens of Arab families waited outside Al-Aqtan prison and the local courthouse over the weekend to see if loved ones would be released after SDF fighters evacuated the facilities.
Many residents of the region believe Arabs were unfairly targeted by the SDF and often imprisoned on trumped-up charges.
At least 126 boys under the age of 18 were released from the prison Saturday after government forces took it over.
Issa Mayouf from the village of Al-Hamrat, was waiting with his wife outside the courthouse Sunday for word about their 18-year-old son, who was arrested four months ago. Mayouf said he was accused of supporting a terrorist organization after SDF forces found Islamic chants as well as images on his phone mocking SDF commander Mazloum Abdi.
“SDF was a failure as a government,” Mayouf said “And there were no services. Look at the streets, the infrastructure, the education. It was all zero.”
Northeast Syria has oil and gas reserves and some of the country’s most fertile agricultural land. The SDF “had all the wealth of the country and they did nothing with it for the country,” Mayouf said.
Mona Yacoubian, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Kurdish civilians in besieged areas are terrified of “an onslaught and even atrocities” by government forces or allied groups.
But Arabs living in formerly SDF-controlled areas “also harbor deep fears and resentment toward the Kurds based on accusations of discrimination, intimidation, forced recruitment and even torture while imprisoned,” she said.
“The experience of both sides underscores the deep distrust and resentment across Syria’s diverse society that threatens to derail the country’s transition,” Yacoubian said.
She added it’s now on the government of interim Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa to strike a balance between demonstrating its power and creating space for the country’s anxious minorities to have a say in their destiny.
