Pakistan frets over security ahead of SCO summit

Pakistan Army soldiers stand guard in Islamabad on October 6, 2024. (AFP/File)
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Updated 13 October 2024
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Pakistan frets over security ahead of SCO summit

  • Prime ministers of Russia, China among senior regional government officials attending SCO summit
  • Pakistan’s authorities have cracked down hard on dissent in the weeks leading up to the event 

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan authorities were on Sunday preparing to shut down the capital ahead of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, overshadowed by recent militant violence and political unrest.
The Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Chinese Premier Li Qiang will be among senior regional government officials attending the two-day conference on Tuesday and Wednesday.
In the weeks leading up to the summit, Pakistan’s authorities have cracked down hard on dissent, banning an ethnic nationalist movement and introducing new laws that restrict protest in the capital.
They have also arrested hundreds of supporters of jailed opposition leader Imran Khan who attempted to march in Islamabad earlier this month.
A deadly attack on a convoy of Chinese engineers in the mega port city of Karachi last week has also deepened security fears in a country where separatist groups routinely target Chinese nationals.
Islamabad has authorized the deployment of troops on the streets for the duration of the summit.
Imtiaz Gul, a security analyst and executive director of the Center for Research and Security Studies, said the meeting holds great significance for a country that’s “not seen as safe.”
“The government claims to have made elaborate security arrangements and understandably so because it has to make sure that the event passes off peacefully without any untoward incident,” he told AFP.
The SCO comprises China, India, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Belarus — with 16 more countries affiliated as observers or “dialogue partners.”
All visiting member nations are expected to send government heads apart from Pakistan’s arch-rival India, who will dispatch its foreign minister in a rare visit to its neighbor.
The SCO is sometimes touted as an alternative to the Western-dominated NATO military alliance.
As China’s claim over Taiwan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have seen them clash with the US and Europe, analysts say the SCO is one forum where they are trying to curry regional influence.
While the SCO has a mandate to discuss security, the Islamabad summit is due to focus on trade, humanitarian and cultural issues.
Pakistan’s domestic concerns are likely to dominate the sidelines of the summit, however.
Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party has threatened to stage protests, a week after scattered demonstrations by supporters saw the capital locked down for three days with mobile phone signal cut and exit and entry points blocked.
“The PTI doesn’t want to showcase the positive side of Pakistan to the world,” accused Ahsan Iqbal Chaudhary, minister for planning, during a press conference Saturday.
“Instead, they aim to present a picture of the country filled with tear gas and unrest.”
Authorities have declared a three-day public holiday for Islamabad and the neighboring city of Rawalpindi starting Monday, along with road closures to reduce movement around the area.
The “red zone” government quarter hosting the summit meanwhile has been spruced up with manicured lawns ringed by razor wire.
Cash-strapped Pakistan is particularly at pains to protect citizens from China because it is a major investor, sending funds and staff for million-dollar infrastructure projects.
Pakistan is grappling with a broad uptick in militancy coinciding with the Taliban’s 2021 return to power in neighboring Afghanistan, where Islamabad claims attackers are now taking shelter.


Pakistan’s OGDC ramps up unconventional gas plans

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Pakistan’s OGDC ramps up unconventional gas plans

  • Pakistan has long been viewed as having potential in tight and shale gas but commercial output has yet to be proved
  • OGDC says has tripled tight-gas study area to 4,500 square km after new seismic, reservoir analysis indicates potential

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s state-run Oil & Gas Development Company is planning a major expansion of unconventional gas developments from early next year, aiming to boost production and reduce reliance on imported liquefied natural gas.

Pakistan has long been viewed as having potential in both tight and shale gas, which are trapped in rock and can only be released with specialized drilling, but commercial output has yet to be proved.

Managing Director Ahmed Lak told Reuters that OGDC had tripled its tight-gas study area to 4,500 square kilometers (1,737 square miles) after new seismic and reservoir analysis indicated larger potential. Phase two of a technical evaluation will finish by end-January, followed by full development plans.

The renewed push comes after US President Donald Trump said Pakistan held “massive” oil reserves in July, a statement analysts said lacked credible geological evidence, but which prompted Islamabad to underscore that it is pursuing its own efforts to unlock unconventional resources.

“We started with 85 wells, but the footprint has expanded massively,” Lak said, adding that OGDC’s next five-year plan would look “drastically different.”

Early results point to a “significant” resource across parts of Sindh and Balochistan, where multiple reservoirs show tight-gas characteristics, he said.

SHALE PILOT RAMPS UP

OGDC is also fast-tracking its shale program, shifting from a single test well to a five- to six-well plan in 2026–27, with expected flows of 3–4 million standard cubic feet per day (mmcfd) per well.

If successful, the development could scale to hundreds or even more than 1,000 wells, Lak said.

He said shale alone could eventually add 600 mmcfd to 1 billion standard cubic feet per day of incremental supply, though partners would be needed if the pilot proves viable.

The company is open to partners “on a reciprocal basis,” potentially exchanging acreage abroad for participation in Pakistan, he said.

A 2015 US Energy Information Administration study estimated Pakistan had 9.1 billion barrels of technically recoverable shale oil, the largest such resource outside China and the United States.

A 2022 assessment found parts of the Indus Basin geologically comparable to North American shale plays, though analysts say commercial viability still hinges on better geomechanical data, expanded fracking capacity and water availability.

OGDC plans to begin drilling a deep-water offshore well in the Indus Basin, known as the Deepal prospect, in the fourth quarter of 2026, Lak said. In October, Turkiye’s TPAO with PPL and its consortium partners, including OGDC, were awarded a block for offshore exploration.

A combination of weak gas demand, rising solar uptake and a rigid LNG import schedule has created a surplus of gas that forced OGDC to curb output and pushed Pakistan to divert cargoes from Italy’s ENI and seek revised terms with Qatar.