MOSCOW: Russia’s grain harvest will be hit by the impact of Ukraine’s attacks on grain-producing regions close to the border and by bad weather in many other regions, the RIA news agency cited Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut as saying on Monday.
Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, has officially forecast this year’s grain harvest at 132 million metric tons, an 11 percent drop from 148 million tons in 2023 and a 16 percent drop from a record 158 million tons in 2022.
However, after bad weather, ranging from early spring frosts to drought and rain, hit many grain-producing regions, the forecast is set for a downward revision. The IKAR consultancy sees this year’s grain harvest at 124.5 million tons.
Concerns over Russia’s smaller-than-expected grain harvest supported international prices in recent months, with wheat reaching four-months high last week.
“We are currently calculating the figures, taking into account the bad weather in Siberia,” Lut was quoted by RIA Novosti as saying.
“And on the other hand, unfortunately, considering the inability to harvest crops in regions where a counter-terrorist operation regime has been introduced,” Lut added in a first public acknowledgment of the war’s impact on the harvest.
Russia introduced the regime in Kursk, as well as neighboring Bryansk and Belgorod regions, following a major Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, Russia’s seventh-largest grain-producing region, on Aug. 6.
Both Belgorod and Bryansk regions, major grain-producing areas, have become targets of regular attacks by Ukraine’s military. Ukrainian forces still control a large swathe of the Kursk region.
Kursk Governor Alexei Smirnov said in September that after the attack, the harvesting of grains could not be completed on an area of 160,000 hectares. He estimated the damage from the attack at almost $1 billion.
Lut said the final estimate for this year’s harvest will be announced on Oct. 10. Sovecon consultancy earlier estimated that as of Oct.1, Russian farmers had harvested 111 million metric tons of grain.
Lut also said that winter crops sowing in many regions was difficult because of the continued drought. Sovecon consultancy said that no rains were expected in winter grain sowing areas until mid-October.
“The sowing is going very hard. We plan to sow 20 million hectares, as we did last year. But we are practically sowing in sand,” Interfax news agency quoted Lut as saying.