OSLO/STOCKHOLM: The United Nations Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA), the International Court of Justice and UN chief Antonio Guterres are among the favorites for this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, experts said, in a year marked by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.
Given past form, the Norwegian Nobel Committee is capable of springing a complete surprise in the Oct. 11 announcement — including not giving the prize at all.
Bookmakers have Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, who died in an Arctic penal colony in February, as a favorite to win this year’s award. But that is not possible as he cannot receive the prize posthumously.
Another bookies’ favorite, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, is unlikely to win because he is the leader of a nation at war.
Instead, with 2024 marked by the now spreading Israel-Hamas war, a Ukraine conflict in its third year and bloodshed in Sudan displacing more than 10 million, the committee may want to focus on humanitarian actors helping to relieve civilian suffering.
“UNRWA could be one such candidate. They’re doing extremely important work for civilian Palestinians that experience the sufferings of the war in Gaza,” Henrik Urdal, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, told Reuters.
A prize to UNRWA would be controversial, he added, given the allegations made by Israel that some of its staff took part in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel by militant group Hamas that triggered the war in Gaza.
Some countries halted their funding to UNRWA as a result of the allegations. Most donors have since resumed. In August, an internal UN investigation said that nine staff members may have been involved in the attack and have been fired.
UNRWA has said Israel is trying to have the organization disbanded. The agency, set up in 1949 in the aftermath of the war over Israel’s creation, provides humanitarian assistance to millions of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.
UN Secretary- general Guterres
The secretive five-strong awarding committee, appointed by the Norwegian parliament, may also want to focus on the need to bolster the international world order built after the Second World War and its crowning institution, the United Nations.
That could mean a prize to its secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, with or without its top court, the ICJ, said Asle Sveen, a historian of the Nobel Peace Prize.
“Guterres is the top symbol of the UN,” Sveen told Reuters. “(And) the ICJ’s most important duty is to ensure that international humanitarian law is applied globally.”
The ICJ has condemned Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and called on Israel to ensure that no genocide is committed in Gaza in an ongoing case Israel has repeatedly dismissed as baseless.
But the committee could also decide that no one gets the prize, something that has happened on 19 occasions, the last time in 1972.
“Maybe this is the year in which the Nobel Peace Prize committee should simply withhold the prize and focus attention on the fact that this is a warring planet,” Dan Smith, head of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, told Reuters.
Thousands of people can propose names, including former laureates, members of parliaments and university professors of history or law. Nominations are secret for 50 years, but those who nominate can choose to reveal their choices.
Some of the known nominees include the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, Pope Francis and British naturalist David Attenborough. In total 286 candidates have been nominated for this year’s prize.
Last year’s prize went to Narges Mohammadi, an imprisoned Iranian women’s rights advocate, in a rebuke to Tehran’s theocratic leaders and boost for anti-government protesters.
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Nobel Peace Prize could honor UNRWA, ICJ, UN chief Guterres
Nobel Peace Prize could honor UNRWA, ICJ, UN chief Guterres
- Prize will be announced on Oct. 11 in Oslo
- Experts say UNRWA a potential winner, but would be controversial
NGOs fear ‘catastrophic impact’ of new Israel registration rules
- NGOs working in Israel and occupied Palestinian territories have until December 31 to register under the new framework
- Save the Children is among the charities already barred under the new rules
PARIS: New rules in Israel for registering non-governmental organizations, under which more than a dozen groups have already been rejected, could have a catastrophic impact on aid work in Gaza and the West Bank, relief workers warn.
The NGOs have until December 31 to register under the new framework, which Israel says aims not to impede aid distribution but to prevent “hostile actors or supporters of terrorism” operating in the Palestinian territories.
The controversy comes with Gaza, which lacks running water and electricity, still battling a humanitarian crisis even after the US-brokered October ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas, sparked by the Palestinian militant group’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
Israel’s Ministry of Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism told AFP that, as of November 2025, approximately 100 registration requests had been submitted and “only 14 organization requests have been rejected... The remainder have been approved or are currently under review.”
Requests are rejected for “organizations involved in terrorism, antisemitism, delegitimization of Israel, Holocaust denial, denial of the crimes of October 7,” it said.
‘Very problematic’
The amount of aid entering Gaza remains inadequate. While the October 10 ceasefire agreement stipulated the entry of 600 trucks per day, only 100 to 300 are carrying humanitarian aid, according to NGOs and the United Nations.
The NGOs barred under the new rules include Save the Children, one of the best known and oldest in Gaza, where it helps 120,000 children, and the American Friends Service Committee (AFSC).
They are being given 60 days to withdraw all their international staff from the Gaza Strip, the occupied West Bank and Israel, and will no longer be able to send humanitarian supplies across the border to Gaza.
In Gaza, Save the Children’s local staff and partners “remain committed to providing crucial services for children,” such as psychosocial support and education, a spokeswoman told AFP.
The forum that brings together UN agencies and NGOs working in the area on Thursday issued a statement urging Israel to “lift all impediments,” including the new registration process, that “risk the collapse of the humanitarian response.”
The Humanitarian Country Team of the Occupied Palestinian Territory (HCT) warned that dozens of NGOs face deregistration and that, while some had been registered, “these NGOs represent only a fraction of the response in Gaza and are nowhere near the number required just to meet immediate and basic needs.”
“The deregistration of NGOs in Gaza will have a catastrophic impact on access to essential and basic services,” it said.
NGOs contacted by AFP, several of whom declined to be quoted on the record due to the sensitivity of the issue, say they complied with most of Israel’s requirements to provide a complete dossier.
Some, however, refused to cross what they described as a “red line” of providing information about their Palestinian staff.
“After speaking about genocide, denouncing the conditions under which the war was being waged and the restrictions imposed on the entry of aid, we tick all the boxes” to fail the registration, predicted the head of one NGO.
“Once again, bureaucratic pressure is being used for political control, with catastrophic consequences,” said the relief worker.
Rights groups and NGOs including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have accused Israel of carrying out a genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, a term vehemently rejected by the Israeli government.
“If NGOs are considered to be harmful for passing on testimonies from populations, carrying out operational work and saying what is happening and this leads to a ban on working, then this is very problematic,” said Jean-Francois Corty, president of French NGO Medecins du Monde.
- ‘Every little criticism’ -
The most contentious requirement for the NGOs is to prove they do not work for the “delegitimization” of Israel, a term that appears related to calling into question Israel’s right to exist but which aid workers say is dangerously vague.
“Israel sees every little criticism as a reason to deny their registration... We don’t even know what delegitimization actually means,” said Yotam Ben-Hillel, an Israeli lawyer who is assisting several NGOs with the process and has filed legal appeals.
He said the applications of some NGOs had already been turned down on these grounds.
“So every organization that operates in Gaza and the West Bank and sees what happens and reports on that could be declared as illegal now, because they just report on what they see,” he told AFP.
With the December 31 deadline looming, concerns focus on what will happen in early 2026 if the NGOs that are selected lack the capacity and expertise of organizations with a long-standing presence.
Several humanitarian actors told AFP they had “never heard of” some of the accredited NGOs, which currently have no presence in Gaza but were reportedly included in Trump’s plan for Gaza.
“The United States is starting from scratch, and with the new registration procedure, some NGOs will leave,” said a European diplomatic source in the region, asking not to be named. “They might wake up on January 1 and realize there is no-one to replace them.”
The NGOs have until December 31 to register under the new framework, which Israel says aims not to impede aid distribution but to prevent “hostile actors or supporters of terrorism” operating in the Palestinian territories.
The controversy comes with Gaza, which lacks running water and electricity, still battling a humanitarian crisis even after the US-brokered October ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas, sparked by the Palestinian militant group’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.
Israel’s Ministry of Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism told AFP that, as of November 2025, approximately 100 registration requests had been submitted and “only 14 organization requests have been rejected... The remainder have been approved or are currently under review.”
Requests are rejected for “organizations involved in terrorism, antisemitism, delegitimization of Israel, Holocaust denial, denial of the crimes of October 7,” it said.
‘Very problematic’
The amount of aid entering Gaza remains inadequate. While the October 10 ceasefire agreement stipulated the entry of 600 trucks per day, only 100 to 300 are carrying humanitarian aid, according to NGOs and the United Nations.
The NGOs barred under the new rules include Save the Children, one of the best known and oldest in Gaza, where it helps 120,000 children, and the American Friends Service Committee (AFSC).
They are being given 60 days to withdraw all their international staff from the Gaza Strip, the occupied West Bank and Israel, and will no longer be able to send humanitarian supplies across the border to Gaza.
In Gaza, Save the Children’s local staff and partners “remain committed to providing crucial services for children,” such as psychosocial support and education, a spokeswoman told AFP.
The forum that brings together UN agencies and NGOs working in the area on Thursday issued a statement urging Israel to “lift all impediments,” including the new registration process, that “risk the collapse of the humanitarian response.”
The Humanitarian Country Team of the Occupied Palestinian Territory (HCT) warned that dozens of NGOs face deregistration and that, while some had been registered, “these NGOs represent only a fraction of the response in Gaza and are nowhere near the number required just to meet immediate and basic needs.”
“The deregistration of NGOs in Gaza will have a catastrophic impact on access to essential and basic services,” it said.
NGOs contacted by AFP, several of whom declined to be quoted on the record due to the sensitivity of the issue, say they complied with most of Israel’s requirements to provide a complete dossier.
Some, however, refused to cross what they described as a “red line” of providing information about their Palestinian staff.
“After speaking about genocide, denouncing the conditions under which the war was being waged and the restrictions imposed on the entry of aid, we tick all the boxes” to fail the registration, predicted the head of one NGO.
“Once again, bureaucratic pressure is being used for political control, with catastrophic consequences,” said the relief worker.
Rights groups and NGOs including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have accused Israel of carrying out a genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, a term vehemently rejected by the Israeli government.
“If NGOs are considered to be harmful for passing on testimonies from populations, carrying out operational work and saying what is happening and this leads to a ban on working, then this is very problematic,” said Jean-Francois Corty, president of French NGO Medecins du Monde.
- ‘Every little criticism’ -
The most contentious requirement for the NGOs is to prove they do not work for the “delegitimization” of Israel, a term that appears related to calling into question Israel’s right to exist but which aid workers say is dangerously vague.
“Israel sees every little criticism as a reason to deny their registration... We don’t even know what delegitimization actually means,” said Yotam Ben-Hillel, an Israeli lawyer who is assisting several NGOs with the process and has filed legal appeals.
He said the applications of some NGOs had already been turned down on these grounds.
“So every organization that operates in Gaza and the West Bank and sees what happens and reports on that could be declared as illegal now, because they just report on what they see,” he told AFP.
With the December 31 deadline looming, concerns focus on what will happen in early 2026 if the NGOs that are selected lack the capacity and expertise of organizations with a long-standing presence.
Several humanitarian actors told AFP they had “never heard of” some of the accredited NGOs, which currently have no presence in Gaza but were reportedly included in Trump’s plan for Gaza.
“The United States is starting from scratch, and with the new registration procedure, some NGOs will leave,” said a European diplomatic source in the region, asking not to be named. “They might wake up on January 1 and realize there is no-one to replace them.”
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