What Israel’s purported invasion of Lebanon means for Hezbollah and its Iranian backers

Israel said it had launched a “limited” ground incursion into Lebanon on Monday. (AP)
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Updated 02 October 2024
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What Israel’s purported invasion of Lebanon means for Hezbollah and its Iranian backers

  • Israel says it has mounted ‘limited, localized, and targeted ground raids’ in southern Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure
  • Iran launched a missile attack against Israel on Tuesday night in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah and Hamas chief Haniyeh

DUBAI/LONDON: Following the killing of Hezbollah’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in a targeted airstrike on Sept. 27, Israel is reported to have launched what it calls a “limited” ground incursion into Lebanon.

On Tuesday night, Iran fired a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel in a long-expected retaliation for the killing of Nasrallah and the suspected Israeli killing of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31.

Both developments have brought the region yet another step closer to the possibility of all-out war.




Rescuers dig through the rubble of a building, a day after it was hit in an Israeli strike, in Ain El-Delb. (AP)

Lebanon has witnessed its bloodiest month since the end of its civil war in 1990. According to the Ministry of Health, more than 1,000 people have been killed, 90,000 displaced, and up to a million people have fled their homes.

Emboldened by its early successes, Israeli military officials appear determined to press home the advantage.

In a statement, officials described their actions as “limited, localized, and targeted ground raids” in southern Lebanon aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, which they consider a threat to northern Israel.

The military said it was acting on “precise intelligence” targeting Hezbollah positions and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. “These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel,” it said.

On Tuesday, the Israeli military called on residents in more than 20 areas of southern Lebanon to evacuate.




Mourners carry the bodies of victims killed in an Israeli air strike on the town of Ain Al-Delb. (AFP)

“The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) does not want to harm you, and for your own safety you must evacuate your homes immediately. Anyone who is near Hezbollah members, installations and combat equipment is putting his life in danger,” army spokesman Avichay Adraee said on X.

“You must head immediately to the north of the Al-Awali River,” near the coastal city of Sidon, Adraee added.

However, Hezbollah said that no Israeli troops had crossed over into Lebanon. “All the Zionist claims that (Israeli) occupation forces have entered Lebanon are false claims,” a Hezbollah spokesman said in a statement on Tuesday.

They added there had “not yet been any direct ground clash between (Hezbollah) resistance fighters and (Israeli) occupation forces.”

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The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon also said on Tuesday that there was “no ground incursion” going on in the south of the country. UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti told AFP news agency there was “no ground incursion right now.”

Israeli officials want Hezbollah to withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, about 18 km from the Israeli border, which would allow displaced Israeli civilians to return to their homes near the border.

Firas Maksad, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, believes there is likely more to Israel’s war aims. “The stated objective is to return some 60,000 Israelis to their homes in the north. However, what we’re witnessing is something much broader than that,” he told CNN.

“It is an attempt, perhaps, to redraw the balance of power not only in Lebanon but more broadly in the Levant and even perhaps in the region as it relates to Iran. And we’ve heard time and again that this might now very much include a ground component.”

Just what a “limited” invasion might entail, however, also remains unclear.

“In the Lebanese psyche in particular, but others in the region, too, that past Israeli land incursions and invasions into Lebanon were also dubbed as being limited, so there’s a lot of question marks and certainly a lack of trust as to how far this operation will go,” Maksad said.

The international community has repeatedly warned against further escalation, fearing it could plunge the entire region into chaos.

INNUMBERS

• 1,000+ Lebanese killed in Israel-Hezbollah clashes in the past two weeks.

• 1m Lebanese displaced by Israel-Hezbollah fighting so far.

During a recent visit to Lebanon, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot urged both sides to agree to a ceasefire and resolve the conflict diplomatically, calling on Israel to “refrain from any action that could destabilize the region.”

Meanwhile, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati described the situation as “one of the most dangerous phases” in Lebanon’s history, stressing the need to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

As the conflict intensifies, the US has bolstered its military presence in the region, sending “a few thousand” additional troops to ensure security and protect Israel if necessary, according to the Pentagon.

In Lebanon, reactions to the latest escalation are divided. Hezbollah supporters have welcomed the confrontation, while many others oppose being dragged into a war not of their making. For Karine, a 37-year-old mathematics teacher, the country is being held hostage by Hezbollah.

“I sympathize with the Palestinian cause. I even sympathize with Nasrallah’s supporters. But reason says you cannot drag the whole country into war due to the decisions of a few,” she told Arab News.

“Israel, while I consider it an abomination before God, has demonstrated incredible military might. We have been dealing with crisis after crisis since 2019, and we are not up for this fight. We are too exhausted.

“Even if Hezbollah wants to fight, thousands of their soldiers have been left blinded and without limbs. How are they to fire a gun without eyesight and fingers? Spare us.”

Nasrallah had previously declared that an Israeli invasion would provide a “historic opportunity” for Hezbollah to eliminate its enemies — a sentiment reiterated by his deputy, Naim Qassem.

In a televised speech, the first since Nasrallah’s death, Qassem vowed revenge, stating that “the resistance is ready” to confront Israeli forces.




Smoke rises over Beirut’s southern suburbs after a strike. (Reuters)

Despite the loss of its leader, Qassem insisted that Hezbollah’s arsenal remains intact and that the group has the resources it needs for the fight. He called for patience, assuring supporters that while the battle will be long, Hezbollah will ultimately emerge victorious.

However, Hezbollah’s closest allies, Iran and Syria, have been notably hesitant to intervene.

While Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei mourned Nasrallah, calling him his “dear Sayyed” and urged Muslims to stand by Lebanon against the “foul-natured Zionist regime,” the Iranian government has made it clear that it will not send troops to Lebanon.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that “there is no need to send extra or volunteer forces” from Iran to Lebanon or Gaza, as “the fighters in both countries have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression.”

Similarly, Syria’s President Bashar Assad has yet to provide any concrete aid beyond condemning Israel’s actions.

Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director for research at the Carnegie Middle East Center, suggests that Hezbollah has realized it is largely on its own in this conflict.

“Israel’s actions were a message of deterrence to Iran,” Hage Ali told Arab News. “I don’t think Iran wants to join the conflict, given how it now understands Israel’s military capabilities.

“There has been an unexpected level of infiltration within the ranks of Hezbollah and it seems too deep for the organization to deal with. No one has been able to figure out yet where the leaks are coming from.”

He added: “Hezbollah exists as a frontline asset but now serves as a cautionary tale for Iran.”

Iran’s apparent reluctance to intervene on behalf of its Hezbollah ally could be costly in terms of its credibility.




On Tuesday night, Iran fired a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel. (AP)

“The lack of response from Iran is contributing to a lot of grievances among its Arab allies, particularly in Lebanon, even within the Hezbollah support base in the Shiite community, essentially asking and wondering whether they’ve been left out to dry, by themselves, without Iran coming to their aid,” Maksad said.

“I don’t think Iran will be coming to their aid. They understand that in any direct confrontation with Israel they are at a disadvantage. And so what we’ve been hearing, time and again, from Iranian officials is this commitment to support Hezbollah, to support the Lebanese and their various proxies, in their fight against Israel, but not to be dragged into it themselves. They see that as a trap that they very much want to avoid.”

On Tuesday evening, however, Iran mounted a response, firing a wave of ballistic missiles at Israel.

In April, Iran mounted its first direct attack on Israeli soil with a massive barrage of missiles and drones in retaliation for the Israeli bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus.

Although Israeli air defenses were able to destroy some 99 percent of the drones and missiles before they reached its airspace, the incident sent a strong message that Iran would respond if pushed.

This latest Iranian attack will again have sent a strong message of deterrence, but is unlikely to change Hezbollah’s fortunes on the ground in Lebanon.

Indeed, with its leadership decapitated, its communication networks compromised, and with potential leaks within its ranks in Lebanon and Syria, Hezbollah already appears to be on the ropes.

Much depends on how Iran chooses to respond in the long run.




Hezbollah supporters have welcomed the confrontation, while many others oppose being dragged into a war not of their making. (AFP)

“This is essentially the opening round of a 12-round match between Hezbollah, backed by Iran, on the one hand, and Israel,” Maksad said.

“And if we know anything from history (it) is that Israel is pretty effective at landing these strong opening blows, but Iran tends to play the long game.”

 


American killed in Lebanon was a US citizen, State Dept says

Kamel Ahmad Jawad. (Courtesy Jawad Family)
Updated 5 sec ago
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American killed in Lebanon was a US citizen, State Dept says

  • State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller earlier this week said it was Washington’s understanding that Jawad was a legal permanent resident, not an American citizen. On Friday, the department said that he was a US citizen

WASHINGTON: An American killed in Lebanon this week was a US citizen, a State Department spokesperson said on Friday, adding that Washington was working to understand the circumstances of the incident.
Kamel Ahmad Jawad, from Dearborn, Michigan, was killed in Lebanon in an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday, according to his daughter, a friend and the US congresswoman representing his district.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller earlier this week said it was Washington’s understanding that Jawad was a legal permanent resident, not an American citizen. On Friday, the department said that he was a US citizen.
“We are aware and alarmed of reports of the death of Kamel Jawad, who we have confirmed is a US citizen,” the spokesperson said.
“As we have noted repeatedly, it is a moral and strategic imperative that Israel take all feasible precautions to mitigate civilian harm. Any loss of civilian life is a tragedy.”
Israel says it is targeting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, who have been firing rockets into Israel since the war in Gaza began a year ago.
Its recent military campaign in Lebanon has killed hundreds and wounded thousands, according to the Lebanese government, which has not said how many of the casualties were civilians versus Hezbollah members. The Israeli bombardment has also driven more than 1.2 million Lebanese from their homes.
The governor of Michigan has urged the US government to do more to rescue Americans stuck in Lebanon, many of them from Michigan, during Israel’s military offensive in the country.

 


Tunisians protest against President Saied two days before presidential vote

Updated 50 min 5 sec ago
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Tunisians protest against President Saied two days before presidential vote

  • The opposition’s anger flared after presidential candidate Ayachi Zammel was handed down three prison sentences totalling 14 years

TUNIS: Hundreds of Tunisians marched in the capital on Friday, escalating protests against President Kais Saied, two days before what they say is an unfair presidential vote in which Saied has removed most other candidates to remain in power.
Protesters, who held up banners reading “Farce elections” and “Freedoms, not a lifelong presidency,” marched to Habib Bourguiba Avenue, the main thoroughfare in Tunis and a focus point in 2011 protests that toppled former President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
Political tensions in the North African country have risen since an electoral commission named by Saied disqualified three other prominent candidates, and an independent court has been stripped of authority to adjudicate on election disputes by the parliament.
The opposition’s anger flared after presidential candidate Ayachi Zammel was handed down three prison sentences totalling 14 years.
He has been in jail since he was arrested a month ago on charges of forging electoral documents.
Saied now faces just two rival candidates, Zammel and Zouhair Maghzaoui, who was a former Saied ally and then turned critic.
Protesters chanted slogans against Saied: “The people want the fall of the regime” and Dictator Saied ... your turn has come.”
“Tunisians are not accustomed to such an election. In 2011, 2014 and 2019 they expressed their opinions freely, but this election does not allow them the right to choose their destiny,” said Zied Ghanney, an opposition figure.

 


Hamas counters abduction claim, says Yazidi woman’s Gaza departure was voluntary

Updated 58 min 41 sec ago
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Hamas counters abduction claim, says Yazidi woman’s Gaza departure was voluntary

  • “The Yazidi woman left the government facility to the crossing on her own, with the knowledge of her deceased husband’s family and the Palestinian government
  • A US defense official said on Thursday the American military did not have a role in the evacuation

CAIRO: The Islamist group Hamas rejected what it called “a false narrative and fabricated story” about a Yazidi woman Israel said was freed in Gaza in a secret operation involving Israel, the United States and Iraq.
The woman, whom Israeli officials have said was taken captive when she was 11 years old and sold to a Hamas member, had never been abducted or sold, and was able to leave Gaza with the knowledge of the Hamas authorities, the Hamas-run Gaza government media office said on Friday.
It said the 25-year old woman, identified as Fawzia Sido, was married to a Palestinian who fought alongside the Syrian opposition forces before he was killed. She later moved to live with his mother in Turkiye before traveling to Egypt, where she continued to live with her mother-in-law and later crossed into Gaza legally.
Years after she moved to live in Gaza, she married her husband’s brother before he was killed during the ongoing Israeli military offensive, Hamas said.
“She requested to contact her family because she felt increasingly unsafe in Gaza amid the intense bombing and brutal attacks by the Israeli occupation. She asked for evacuation, especially after her husband was martyred,” the Gaza government media office said.
“The Yazidi woman left the government facility to the crossing on her own, with the knowledge of her deceased husband’s family and the Palestinian government. The occupation did not ‘rescue’ her, as falsely claimed in its statement aimed at misleading public opinion,” it added.
Reuters could not reach the woman directly for comment on Thursday, with Iraqi officials saying she was resting after having been reunited with her family in northern Iraq.
On Thursday, the Israeli military said it had coordinated with the US Embassy in Jerusalem and “other international actors” in the operation to free Sido.
It said in a statement her captor had been killed during the Gaza war, presumably by an Israeli strike, and she then fled to a hideout inside the Gaza Strip.
“In a complex operation coordinated between Israel, the United States, and other international actors, she was recently rescued in a secret mission from the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom Crossing,” it said.
A US defense official said on Thursday the American military did not have a role in the evacuation.
She was freed after more than four months of efforts that involved several attempts that failed due to the difficult security situation resulting from Israel’s military offensive in Gaza, Silwan Sinjaree, chief of staff of Iraq’s foreign minister, told Reuters on Thursday.
Iraq and Israel do not have any diplomatic ties.
“The narrative the occupation attempted to promote is entirely false. The woman traveled to Gaza through multiple airports and official border crossings,” the Hamas statement said.
“How could she pass through all these checkpoints without security noticing, only for the occupation to later claim she was kidnapped?” it added.

 


Egypt’s plan to save some dough: cut the wheat in bread

Updated 05 October 2024
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Egypt’s plan to save some dough: cut the wheat in bread

  • But bakers, millers and consumers fear the product will smell and taste different

RIYADH: Egypt plans to save millions of dollars in import costs by replacing a fifth of the wheatflour in the nation’s bread with cheaper ingredients such as corn or sorghum, industry sources said on Friday.
But bakers and millers reacted with anger when the plan was put to them by the Supply Ministry, and consumers fear their bread will taste different. “The change could be unpopular, producing bread with a different texture and smell,” said Hesham Soliman, a trader in Cairo.

Bakeries oppose the plan because coarser flour requires lengthier baking and would increase labor costs. Mills are also opposed because they are paid based on how much wheat they process, which would be reduced.

Egypt has tried wheat substitution to reduce imports before. Corn was used for several years two decades ago before campaigning by industry groups pushed the government to abandon it.

In another money-saving move, the government raised the price of subsidised bread this year for the first time in decades.

Egypt needs about 8.25 million tonnes of wheat a year to make subsidised bread available to more than 70 million people. It is one of the world’s largest wheat importers, mostly from Russia, at a cost of more than $2 billion a year.


The International Criminal Court unsealed war crimes arrest warrants for 6 Libyan suspects

Updated 05 October 2024
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The International Criminal Court unsealed war crimes arrest warrants for 6 Libyan suspects

  • Khan said that 3 of the suspects were leaders or senior members of the Al Kaniyat militia that controlled Tarhunah from at least 2015 to June 2020, and 3 others were Libyan security officials associated with the militia at the time of the alleged crimes

THE HAGUE, Netherlands: The International Criminal Court unsealed arrest warrants Friday for six men allegedly linked to a brutal Libyan militia blamed for multiple killings and other crimes in a strategically important western town where mass graves were discovered in 2020.
Libya has been in political turmoil since a NATO-backed uprising toppled and killed longtime dictator Muammar Qaddafi in 2011. Since then, Libya has been split between rival administrations in the east and the west, each backed by militias and foreign governments.
ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan said his investigation has gathered evidence “indicating that Tarhunah residents have been subjected to crimes amounting to war crimes, including murder, outrages upon personal dignity, cruel treatment, torture, sexual violence, and rape.”
The court unsealed warrants against six men: Abdelrahim Al-Kani, Makhlouf Douma, Nasser Al-Lahsa, Mohammed Salheen, Abdelbari Al-Shaqaqi and Fathi Al-Zinkal.
Khan said that three of the suspects were leaders or senior members of the Al Kaniyat militia that controlled Tarhunah from at least 2015 to June 2020, and three others were Libyan security officials associated with the militia at the time of the alleged crimes.
Warrants for four of the suspects were issued in April 2023 and two more in July of that year but were kept under seal.
“It is now my view that arrest and surrender can be achieved most effectively through the unsealing of these warrants,” Khan said in a statement.
The mass graves were found in Tarhunah after the militia’s withdrawal following the collapse of a 14-month campaign by military commander Khalifa Haftar to wrest control of Tripoli from an array of militias allied with the former UN-recognized government.
The ICC does not have a police force and relies on cooperation from its 124 member states to enforce arrest warrants. Khan said his office is “seeking to work closely with Libyan authorities so that these individuals can face the charges against them in a court of law” and working with court officials to seek their arrest.
The court opened an investigation in Libya in 2011 at the request of the UN Security Council. It quickly issued warrants for suspects including former dictator Qaddafi, but he was killed before he could be detained and sent for trial. Qaddafi’s son, Seif Al-Islam Qaddafi, also is wanted by the court.