YANGON/BANGUI/CONAKRY/PRISTINA: Four nations across three continents — Myanmar, Central African Republic, Guinea, and Kosovo — have officially opened polls Sunday in a pivotal day for global democracy and shifting political tides.

While the contexts range from the desperate search for an end to civil war in Southeast Asia to breaking parliamentary deadlocks in the Balkans, each vote carries profound implications for regional stability and the future of civilian rule.

Heavily restricted polls

Myanmar’s ruling junta is touting the exercise as a return to democracy five years after it ousted the last elected government, triggering civil war.

But early voters at a downtown station near the gleaming Sule Pagoda — the site of huge pro-democracy protests after the coup — were outnumbered by journalists and polling staff, a far cry from the snaking queues of voters formed outside polling stations in the last election in 2020.

The military declared that election void, ousted civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and seized power in 2021. Suu Kyi remains jailed, while her hugely popular party has been dissolved and was not taking part.
Campaigners, Western diplomats and the UN’s rights chief have all condemned the phased month-long vote, citing a ballot stacked with military allies and a stark crackdown on dissent.

The pro-military Union Solidarity and Development Party is widely expected to emerge as the largest one, in what critics say would be a rebranding of martial rule.
The Southeast Asian nation of around 50 million is riven by civil war and there will be no voting in rebel-held areas.
In junta-controlled territory, the first of three rounds started at 6:00 a.m. (2330 GMT Saturday), including in constituencies in the cities of Yangon, Mandalay and the capital Naypyidaw.
The run-up saw none of the feverish public rallies that Suu Kyi once commanded, and the junta has waged a withering pre-vote offensive to claw back territory.
“It is impossible for this election to be free and fair,” said Moe Moe Myint, who has spent the past two months “on the run” from junta air strikes.

The military ruled Myanmar for most of its post-independence history before a 10-year interlude saw a civilian government take the reins in a burst of optimism and reform.
But after Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party trounced pro-military opponents in the 2020 elections, Min Aung Hlaing snatched power in a coup, alleging widespread voter fraud.
The Asian Network for Free Elections says 90 percent of the seats in the last elections went to organizations that will not appear on Sunday’s ballots.
New electronic voting machines will not allow write-in candidates or spoiled ballots.

The junta is pursuing prosecutions against more than 200 people for violating draconian legislation forbidding “disruption” of the poll, including protest or criticism.
“These elections are clearly taking place in an environment of violence and repression,” UN rights chief Volker Turk said this week.
The second round of polling will take place in two weeks before the third and final round on January 25, but the junta has conceded elections cannot happen in almost one in five lower house constituencies.

Touadera victory would likely advance Russian interests

In the Central African Republic, President Faustin-Archange Touadera is seeking a third term as the chronically unstable country holds ​national elections, touting security gains made with the help of Russian mercenaries and Rwandan soldiers.
The 68-year-old mathematician oversaw a constitutional referendum in 2023 that scrapped the presidential term limit, drawing an outcry from his critics who accused him of seeking to rule for life.
A Touadera victory — the expected outcome — would likely further the interests of Russia, which has traded security assistance for access to resources including gold and diamonds. Touadera is also offering access to the country’s lithium and uranium reserves to anyone interested.

The opposition field ‌of six candidates ‌is led by two former prime ministers, Anicet-Georges Dologuele ‌and ⁠Henri-Marie Dondra, ​both of ‌whom survived attempts by Touadera’s supporters to have them disqualified for allegedly holding foreign citizenship.
Though both men remain on the ballot, Touadera is still seen as the favorite given his control over state institutions and superior financial resources, analysts say.
The challenges to the candidacies of Dologuele and Dondra “aligned with an apparent pattern of administrative manoeuvring that has disproportionately impeded opposition politicians while favoring the ruling United Hearts Party,” Human Rights Watch said last month.
“Their late admission ⁠to the race raises questions about whether voters have been given a genuine choice.”

In ‌2018, CAR became the first country in West and ‍Central Africa to bring in Russia’s Wagner ‍mercenaries, a step since also taken by Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
Two years ‍later Rwanda deployed troops to shore up Touadera’s government as rebel groups threatened the capital and tried to disrupt the 2020 elections, ultimately preventing voting at 800 polling stations across the country, or 14 percent of the total.
The country is more secure now after Touadera signed several peace deals with ​rebel groups this year.
But those gains remain fragile: Rebels have not fully disarmed, reintegration is incomplete, and incursions by combatants from neighboring Sudan fuel ⁠insecurity in the east. Beyond the presidential contest, the elections on Sunday cover legislative, regional and municipal positions.
Provisional results are expected by January 5.
If no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, a presidential runoff will take place on February 15, while legislative runoffs will take place on April 5.
Pangea-Risk, a consultancy, wrote in a note to clients that the risk of unrest after the election was high as opponents were likely to challenge Touadera’s expected victory.
A smooth voting process could reinforce Touadera’s claim that stability is returning, which was buttressed last year with the UN Security Council’s lifting of an arms embargo and the lifting of a separate embargo on diamond exports.
In November, the UN Security ‌Council extended the mandate of its peacekeeping mission. The US opposed the decision, calling for a shorter extension and a handover of security to Bangui.

Guinea's transition to civilian rule

In Guinea, the election is widely expected to hand Mamady Doumbouya, who seized power in ​a 2021 coup, a seven-year mandate, completing the West African nation’s transition back to civilian rule.
The former special forces commander, believed to be in his early 40s, faces eight other candidates in a fragmented field with no strong challenger. Ousted president Alpha Conde and longtime opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo remain in exile.
Guinea holds the world’s largest bauxite reserves and the richest untapped iron ore deposit at Simandou, officially launched last month after years of delay.

Doumbouya has claimed credit for pushing the project ‌forward and ensuring Guinea ‌benefits from its output.
His government this year also ‌revoked ⁠EGA ​subsidiary Guinea Alumina ‌Corporation’s license after a refinery dispute, transferring its assets to a state-owned firm.
The turn toward resource nationalism — echoed in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger — has boosted his popularity, as has his youth in a country where the median age is about 19.
“For us young people, Doumbouya represents the opportunity to send the old political class into retirement,” said Mohamed Kaba, a mechanic in Conakry. “There is a lot of corruption right now, but I hope ⁠these things will be sorted out.”

If elected, Doumbouya “will likely utilize his position ‌to further entrench his power and that of the military ‍over Guinea,” said Benedict Manzin, lead Middle ‍East and Africa analyst at risk consultancy Sibylline.
“In particular he is likely to ‍position his allies and associates to benefit from the expected economic boom associated with the launch of production” at Simandou, Manzin added.
A transition charter adopted after the coup barred junta members from contesting elections. But in September, Guineans overwhelmingly backed a new constitution removing that clause, extending presidential ​terms to seven years and creating a Senate.

Political debate ⁠has been muted under Doumbouya. Civil society groups accuse his government of banning protests, curbing press freedom and restricting opposition activity.
The campaign period “has been severely restricted, marked by intimidation of opposition actors, apparently politically motivated enforced disappearances, and constraints on media freedom,” UN rights chief Volker Turk said Friday. These conditions “risk undermining the credibility of the electoral process,” he added.
The government did not respond to a request for comment.
Doumbouya kept a low profile during the campaign, leaving surrogates to make his case.
At a closing rally on Thursday in Conakry, he skipped a speech although he danced with his wife while Congolese star Koffi Olomide performed.
He wore a white baseball cap and track jacket emblazoned with the name of his ‌movement: “Generation for Modernity and Development.”
About 6.7 million people are registered to vote, with provisional results expected within 48 to 72 hours of polls closing.

Kosovo's political crisis 
In Kosovo, Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s party seeks a majority to end a year-long political deadlock that has paralyzed parliament and delayed international funding.
The vote is the second this year in Europe’s youngest nation after Kurti’s Vetevendosje party fell short of a majority in February. Months of failed coalition talks prompted President Vjosa Osmani to dissolve parliament in November and call an early election.
Failure to form a government and reopen ‌parliament would prolong the ‌crisis at a critical time: lawmakers must ‌elect ⁠a new ​president ‌in April and ratify 1 billion euros ($1.2 billion) in loan agreements from the European Union and World Bank that expire in the coming months.
The Balkan country’s opposition parties have refused to govern with Kurti, criticizing his handling of ties with Western allies and his approach to Kosovo’s ethnically divided north, where a Serb minority lives. Kurti blames the opposition for the impasse.
To woo voters, ⁠Kurti has pledged an additional month of salary per year for public sector workers, one ‌billion euros per year in capital investment and ‍a new prosecution unit to ‍fight organized crime. Opposition parties have also focused on improving living standards.
Opinion ‍polls are not published in Kosovo, leaving the outcome uncertain. Many voters say they are disillusioned.
“There wouldn’t be great joy if Kurti wins, nor would there be if the opposition wins. This country needs drastic changes, and I don’t see ​that change coming,” said Edi Krasiqi, a doctor.
Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008 with US backing, including a 1999 NATO bombing campaign against Serbian forces trying to crush an uprising by the 90 percent ethnic Albanian majority.
Despite international support, the country of 1.6 million has struggled with poverty, instability and organized crime. Kurti’s tenure, which began in 2021, was the first time a Pristina government completed a full term.
Tensions with Serbia flared in 2023, prompting the EU to impose sanctions on Kosovo. The bloc said this month it would lift them after ethnic Serb mayors were elected ‌in northern municipalities, but the measures likely cost Kosovo hundreds of millions of euros.
 

(With AFP & Reuters)