LONDON: The UK Labour party is 99 percent “certain” to secure more seats in Thursday’s general election than when it won a landslide victory in 1997, a major new poll said on Tuesday.
The center-left opposition party — out of power since 2010 — is predicted to claim 484 out of a total of 650 seats in what would be an unprecedented victory in modern British history, pollster Survation said.
Meanwhile, the right-wing ruling Conservatives and the centrist Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) are in a close race to come a distant second and form the country’s official opposition, it added.
The prediction is the latest in a series of so-called MRP polls — which use large national samples to forecast results for every UK constituency — that estimate Labour will win emphatically on July 4.
Such a scenario would see its leader Keir Starmer replace the Conservatives’ Rishi Sunak as prime minister.
Labour has led the Tories in the polls by double-digit margins for nearly two years, and the gap has failed to narrow during a six-week election campaign widely seen as having gone badly for Sunak.
Survation said its data indicated that Labour would win around 42 percent of the overall vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 23 percent.
However, due to the UK’s winner-takes-all electoral system in each of its 650 constituencies, that would see the Conservatives capture just 64 seats, with the Lib Dems predicted to claim 61.
Labour’s estimated 484 seats would exceed the 418 won by ex-prime minister Tony Blair in 1997, and even top the Tories’ landslide haul of 470 in 1931.
The pollster also predicted that Labour would again become the largest party in Scotland, winning 38 of its 57 seats and supplanting the Scottish National Party (SNP), which it estimated would secure just 10 seats.
The pro-independence SNP won 48 Scottish constituencies at the last election in 2019.
The Conservatives are “virtually certain” to win a lower share of the vote than at any past general election, according to Survation.
Meanwhile, it forecasted that Reform UK, the anti-immigration party founded by Brexit figurehead Nigel Farage, would only win a handful of seats despite taking the third-largest overall share of the vote, again due to the electoral system.
The Survation prediction, based on nearly 35,000 electorate interviews, is likely to intensify warnings by Sunak in the final hours of the campaign that voters should be weary of voting Labour and handing it a so-called “super-majority.”
Starmer has accused his Conservative rivals of running “an increasingly desperate, negative campaign.”
UK Labour set to surpass 1997 landslide in election: poll
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UK Labour set to surpass 1997 landslide in election: poll
- Such a scenario would see its leader Keir Starmer replace the Conservatives’ Rishi Sunak as prime minister
Belarus frees protest leader Kolesnikova, Nobel winner Bialiatski
- The charismatic Kolesnikova was the star of the 2020 movement that presented the most serious challenge to Lukashenko in his 30-year rule
- Bialiatski — a 63-year-old veteran rights defender and 2022 Nobel Peace Prize winner — is considered by Lukashenko to be a personal enemy
VILNIUS: Belarusian street protest leader Maria Kolesnikova and Nobel Prize winner Ales Bialiatski walked free on Saturday with 121 other political prisoners released in an unprecedented US-brokered deal.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has locked up thousands of his opponents, critics and protesters since the 2020 election, which rights groups said was rigged and which triggered weeks of protests that almost toppled him.
The charismatic Kolesnikova was the star of the 2020 movement that presented the most serious challenge to Lukashenko in his 30-year rule.
She famously ripped up her passport as the KGB tried to deport her from the country.
Bialiatski — a 63-year-old veteran rights defender and 2022 Nobel Peace Prize winner — is considered by Lukashenko to be a personal enemy. He has documented rights abuses in the country, a close ally of Moscow, for decades.
Bialiatski stressed he would carry on fighting for civil rights and freedom for political prisoners after his surprise release, which he called a “huge emotional shock.”
“Our fight continues, and the Nobel Prize was, I think, a certain acknowledgement of our activity, our aspirations that have not yet come to fruition,” he told media in an interview from Vilnius.
“Therefore the fight continues,” he added.
He was awarded the prize in 2022 while already in jail.
After being taken out of prison, he said he was put on a bus and blindfolded until they reached the border with Lithuania.
His wife, Natalia Pinchuk, told AFP that her first words to him on his release were: “I love you.”
- ‘All be free’ -
Most of those freed, including Kolesnikova, were unexpectedly taken to Ukraine, surprising their allies who had been waiting for all of them in Lithuania.
She called for all political prisoners to be released.
“I’m thinking of those who are not yet free, and I’m very much looking forward to the moment when we can all embrace, when we can all see one another, and when we will all be free,” she said in a video interview with a Ukrainian government agency.
Hailing Bialiatski’s release, the Nobel Committee told AFP there were still more than 1,200 political prisoners inside the country.
“Their continued detention starkly illustrates the ongoing, systemic repression in the country,” said chairman Jorgen Watne Frydnes.
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said their release should “strengthen our resolve... to keep fighting for all remaining prisoners behind bars in Belarus because they had the courage to speak truth to power.”
Jailed opponents of Lukashenko are often held incommunicado in a prison system notorious for its secrecy and harsh treatment.
There had been fears for the health of both Bialiatski and Kolesnikova while they were behind bars, though in interviews Saturday they both said they felt okay.
The deal was brokered by the United States, which has pushed for prisoners to be freed and offered some sanctions relief in return.
- Potash relief -
An envoy of US President Donald Trump, John Coale, was in Minsk this week for talks with Lukashenko.
He told reporters from state media that Washington would remove sanctions on the country’s potash industry, without providing specific details.
A US official separately told AFP that one American citizen was among the 123 released.
Minsk also freed Viktor Babariko, an ex-banker who tried to run against Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election but was jailed instead.
Kolesnikova was part of a trio of women, including Svetlana Tikhanovskaya who stood against Lukashenko and now leads the opposition in exile, who headed the 2020 street protests.
She was serving an 11-year sentence in a prison colony.
In 2020, security services had put a sack over her head and drove her to the Ukrainian border. But she ripped up her passport, foiling the deportation plan, and was placed under arrest.
Former prisoners from the Gomel prison where she was held have told AFP she was barred from talking to other political prisoners and regularly thrown into harsh punishment cells.
An image of Kolesnikova making a heart shape with her hands became a symbol of anti-Lukashenko protests.
Bialiatski founded Viasna in the 1990s, two years after Lukashenko became president.
