LONDON: The UK Labour party is 99 percent “certain” to secure more seats in Thursday’s general election than when it won a landslide victory in 1997, a major new poll said on Tuesday.
The center-left opposition party — out of power since 2010 — is predicted to claim 484 out of a total of 650 seats in what would be an unprecedented victory in modern British history, pollster Survation said.
Meanwhile, the right-wing ruling Conservatives and the centrist Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) are in a close race to come a distant second and form the country’s official opposition, it added.
The prediction is the latest in a series of so-called MRP polls — which use large national samples to forecast results for every UK constituency — that estimate Labour will win emphatically on July 4.
Such a scenario would see its leader Keir Starmer replace the Conservatives’ Rishi Sunak as prime minister.
Labour has led the Tories in the polls by double-digit margins for nearly two years, and the gap has failed to narrow during a six-week election campaign widely seen as having gone badly for Sunak.
Survation said its data indicated that Labour would win around 42 percent of the overall vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 23 percent.
However, due to the UK’s winner-takes-all electoral system in each of its 650 constituencies, that would see the Conservatives capture just 64 seats, with the Lib Dems predicted to claim 61.
Labour’s estimated 484 seats would exceed the 418 won by ex-prime minister Tony Blair in 1997, and even top the Tories’ landslide haul of 470 in 1931.
The pollster also predicted that Labour would again become the largest party in Scotland, winning 38 of its 57 seats and supplanting the Scottish National Party (SNP), which it estimated would secure just 10 seats.
The pro-independence SNP won 48 Scottish constituencies at the last election in 2019.
The Conservatives are “virtually certain” to win a lower share of the vote than at any past general election, according to Survation.
Meanwhile, it forecasted that Reform UK, the anti-immigration party founded by Brexit figurehead Nigel Farage, would only win a handful of seats despite taking the third-largest overall share of the vote, again due to the electoral system.
The Survation prediction, based on nearly 35,000 electorate interviews, is likely to intensify warnings by Sunak in the final hours of the campaign that voters should be weary of voting Labour and handing it a so-called “super-majority.”
Starmer has accused his Conservative rivals of running “an increasingly desperate, negative campaign.”
UK Labour set to surpass 1997 landslide in election: poll
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UK Labour set to surpass 1997 landslide in election: poll
- Such a scenario would see its leader Keir Starmer replace the Conservatives’ Rishi Sunak as prime minister
Australia to toughen gun laws as it mourns deadly Bondi attack
- Footage showed one man, identified by local media as fruit seller Ahmed al Ahmed, grabbing one of the gunmen as he fired
- Prime Minister Anthony Albanese convened a meeting of leaders of Australia’s states and territories in response on Monday, agreeing with them “to strengthen gun laws across the nation”
SYDNEY: Australia’s leaders have agreed to toughen gun laws after attackers killed 15 people at a Jewish festival on Bondi Beach, the worst mass shooting in decades decried as antisemitic “terrorism” by authorities.
Dozens fled in panic as a father and son fired into crowds packing the Sydney beach for the start of Hanukkah on Sunday evening.
A 10-year-old girl, a Holocaust survivor and a local rabbi were among those killed, while 42 others were rushed to hospital with gunshot wounds and other injuries.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese convened a meeting of leaders of Australia’s states and territories in response on Monday, agreeing with them “to strengthen gun laws across the nation.”
Albanese’s office said they agreed to explore ways to improve background checks for firearm owners, bar non-nationals from obtaining gun licenses and limit the types of weapons that are legal.
Mass shootings have been rare in Australia since a lone gunman killed 35 people in the town of Port Arthur in 1996, which led to sweeping reforms long seen as a gold standard worldwide.
Those included a gun buyback scheme, a national firearms register and a crackdown on ownership of semi-automatic weapons.
But Sunday’s shooting has raised fresh questions about how the two suspects — who public broadcaster ABC reported had possible links to the Daesh group — obtained the guns.
- ‘An act of pure evil’ -
Police are still unraveling what drove Sunday’s attack, although authorities have said it targeted Jews.
Albanese called it “an act of pure evil, an act of antisemitism, an act of terrorism on our shores.”
A string of antisemitic attacks has spread fear among Australia’s Jewish communities after the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault on Israel and the ensuing war in Gaza.
The Australian government this year accused Iran of orchestrating a recent wave of antisemitic attacks and expelled Tehran’s ambassador nearly four months ago.
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Australia’s government of “pouring oil on the fire of antisemitism” in the months before the shooting, referring to Canberra’s announcement that it would recognize Palestinian statehood in August.
Other world leaders expressed revulsion, with US President Donald Trump condemning the “antisemitic attack.”
The gunmen opened fire on an annual celebration that drew more than 1,000 people to the beach to mark Hanukkah.
They took aim from a raised boardwalk at a beach packed with swimmers cooling off on the steamy summer evening.
Witness Beatrice was celebrating her birthday and had just blown out the candles when the shooting started.
“We thought it was fireworks,” she told AFP. “We’re just feeling lucky we’re all safe.”
Carrying long-barrelled guns, they peppered the beach with bullets for 10 minutes before police shot and killed the 50-year-old father.
The 24-year-old son was arrested and remains under guard in hospital with serious injuries.
Australian media named the suspects as Sajid Akram and his son Naveed Akram.
Tony Burke, the home affairs minister, said the father arrived in Australia on a student visa in 1998 and had become a permanent resident. The son was an Australia-born citizen.
Hours after the shooting, police found a homemade bomb in a car parked close to the beach, saying the “improvised explosive device” had likely been planted by the pair.
Rabbi Mendel Kastel said his brother-in-law was among the dead.
“We need to hold strong. This is not the Australia that we know. This is not the Australia that we want.”
Wary of reprisals, police have so far avoided questions about the attackers’ religion or ideological motivations.
Misinformation spread quickly online after the attacks, some of it targeting immigrants and the Muslim community.
Police said they responded to reports on Monday of several pig heads left at a Muslim cemetery in southwestern Sydney.
- Panic and bravery -
A brave few dashed toward the beach as the shooting unfolded, wading through fleeing crowds to rescue children, treat the injured and confront the gunmen.
Footage showed one man, identified by local media as fruit seller Ahmed al Ahmed, grabbing one of the gunmen as he fired.
The 43-year-old wrestled the gun out of the attacker’s hands, before pointing the weapon at him as he backed away.
A team of off-duty lifeguards sprinted across the sand to drag children to safety.
“The team ran out under fire to try and clear children from the playground while the gunmen were firing,” said Steven Pearce from Surf Life Saving New South Wales.
Bleeding victims were carried across the beach atop surfboards turned into makeshift stretchers.
On Monday evening, a flower memorial next to Bondi Beach swelled in size as mourners gathered.
Hundreds, including members of the Jewish community, sang songs, clapped and held each other.
Leading a ceremony to light a menorah candle, a rabbi told the crowd: “The only strength we have is if we bring light into the world.”
