LONDON: The UK Labour party is 99 percent “certain” to secure more seats in Thursday’s general election than when it won a landslide victory in 1997, a major new poll said on Tuesday.
The center-left opposition party — out of power since 2010 — is predicted to claim 484 out of a total of 650 seats in what would be an unprecedented victory in modern British history, pollster Survation said.
Meanwhile, the right-wing ruling Conservatives and the centrist Liberal Democrats (Lib Dems) are in a close race to come a distant second and form the country’s official opposition, it added.
The prediction is the latest in a series of so-called MRP polls — which use large national samples to forecast results for every UK constituency — that estimate Labour will win emphatically on July 4.
Such a scenario would see its leader Keir Starmer replace the Conservatives’ Rishi Sunak as prime minister.
Labour has led the Tories in the polls by double-digit margins for nearly two years, and the gap has failed to narrow during a six-week election campaign widely seen as having gone badly for Sunak.
Survation said its data indicated that Labour would win around 42 percent of the overall vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 23 percent.
However, due to the UK’s winner-takes-all electoral system in each of its 650 constituencies, that would see the Conservatives capture just 64 seats, with the Lib Dems predicted to claim 61.
Labour’s estimated 484 seats would exceed the 418 won by ex-prime minister Tony Blair in 1997, and even top the Tories’ landslide haul of 470 in 1931.
The pollster also predicted that Labour would again become the largest party in Scotland, winning 38 of its 57 seats and supplanting the Scottish National Party (SNP), which it estimated would secure just 10 seats.
The pro-independence SNP won 48 Scottish constituencies at the last election in 2019.
The Conservatives are “virtually certain” to win a lower share of the vote than at any past general election, according to Survation.
Meanwhile, it forecasted that Reform UK, the anti-immigration party founded by Brexit figurehead Nigel Farage, would only win a handful of seats despite taking the third-largest overall share of the vote, again due to the electoral system.
The Survation prediction, based on nearly 35,000 electorate interviews, is likely to intensify warnings by Sunak in the final hours of the campaign that voters should be weary of voting Labour and handing it a so-called “super-majority.”
Starmer has accused his Conservative rivals of running “an increasingly desperate, negative campaign.”
UK Labour set to surpass 1997 landslide in election: poll
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UK Labour set to surpass 1997 landslide in election: poll
- Such a scenario would see its leader Keir Starmer replace the Conservatives’ Rishi Sunak as prime minister
Indonesia threatens to ban Musk’s Grok AI over degrading images of children and women
- Grok has been complying with user requests to alter images of real people
- Other countries, including Malaysia and France, have also threatened action against X
JAKARTA: Indonesia’s Communications Ministry threatened on Wednesday to ban Elon Musk’s X and its artificial intelligence chatbot Grok after degrading pictures of women and children generated without consent surged on the social media platform.
Grok has been complying with requests from X users to modify images of real women and children stripped to their underwear, creating a viral trend that has sparked concerns across the globe.
A preliminary investigation found that Grok “does not yet have explicit and adequate regulations to prevent the production and distribution of pornographic content based on real photos” of Indonesian citizens,” Indonesia’s Ministry of Communications and Digital Affairs said in a statement.
Indonesia has strict laws against the production and distribution of pornography, with the government regularly instructing internet service providers to block access to websites containing such content.
“The obligation to comply with Indonesian laws and regulations applies to all digital platforms operating in Indonesia,” the ministry said.
“Should there be non-compliance or lack of cooperation, the Ministry of Communications and Digital Affairs may impose administrative sanctions, including termination of access to Grok’s AI services and the X platform.”
Indonesia has joined a growing list of countries, which includes Malaysia, India and France, that are calling for investigations and threatening action against Grok.
Concerns grew after a December update to the chatbot made it easier for users to post photographs of people and ask for their clothing to be removed.
In a report published on Tuesday, European non-profit organization AI Forensics said Grok is “systematically ‘undressing’ women.”
Its analysis of 20,000 images generated by Grok between Dec. 25 and Jan.1 found that 53 percent of them contained individuals in minimal attire, with 81 percent of them being women, while two percent of the images depicted persons appearing to be 18 years old or younger.
Indonesia’s Communications Ministry said AI service providers and users are also subject to administrative or criminal sanctions under Indonesian law if they are proven to have produced or distributed pornographic content or modified personal images without permission.
“Every digital platform must ensure that the technology they provide does not become a medium for privacy violation, sexual exploitation or the degradation of a person’s dignity,” said Alexander Sabar, director-general of digital space at the ministry.
“We urge all parties to use artificial intelligence technology responsibly. The digital space is not a lawless space; every citizen’s privacy and right to their image must be respected and protected.”
