Saudi Arabia’s inflation holds steady at 1.6% in May: GASTAT  

According to the report by the General Authority for Statistics, expenses for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased by 0.4 percent month-on-month in May.  Shutterstock
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Updated 16 June 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s inflation holds steady at 1.6% in May: GASTAT  

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s annual inflation rate held steady at 1.6 percent for the third consecutive month in May, driven by rising housing rents, according to official data. 

The General Authority for Statistics report stated that the Consumer Price Index increased due to a 10.5 percent rise in actual housing rents, which included a 14.3 percent surge in apartment rents. 

“This increase had a significant impact on maintaining the annual inflation rate for May 2024, due to the substantial weight of this category at 21 percent,” said the authority in the report.  

Similarly, costs of food and beverages increased by 1.4 percent, driven by a 6.9 percent rise in vegetable prices.  

On the other hand, prices of furnishing and home equipment decreased by 3.8 percent.  

Similarly, expenses for clothing and footwear decreased by 4 percent year-on-year in May, while transport costs also decreased by 2.4 percent during the same period. 

Monthly inflation  

Meanwhile, the monthly inflation rate rose marginally by 0.2 percent in May compared to the previous month, driven by changes in housing prices. 

The expenses for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels increased by 0.4 percent month-on-month in May.  

The monthly inflation index was also impacted by expenses for food and beverages, which went up by 0.7 percent in May compared to April.  

Additionally, expenses for restaurants and hotels edged up by 0.2 percent, while costs for personal goods and services increased by 0.1 percent month-on-month in May.  

On the other hand, prices for clothing and footwear dipped by 0.6 percent in May compared to the previous month, while costs for transportation edged down by 0.4 percent.  

The report further pointed out that prices of education, furnishing and home equipment, and tobacco products did not show any significant change in May compared to April.  

In May, a report released by Riyad Capital revealed that Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate is expected to average around 2 percent in 2024, with a moderate acceleration to 2.4 percent in 2025.

The Riyad Capital analysis also added that the Kingdom’s non-oil sector is projected to grow at a rate of 4.8 percent in 2024, driven by growth-oriented fiscal policy.

The report further noted that non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia will accelerate further in 2025, with a projected expansion rate of 5.2 percent.

Last year, the International Monetary Fund noted that the likelihood of a rise in headline and core inflation in oil-exporting countries like Saudi Arabia is low.

“Headline and core inflation in many oil-exporting countries like Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia remain relatively lower than elsewhere,” said the IMF.

Wholesale price index increases 

In another report, GASTAT revealed that Saudi Arabia’s Wholesale Price Index increased by 3.2 percent in May compared to the same month of the previous year. 

This increase is mainly driven by a 14.5 percent rise in prices of basic chemicals and a 12 percent increase in the costs of refined petroleum products, the authority added. 

Similarly, prices of food products, beverages, tobacco, and textiles rose by 1.8 percent year-on-year in May, due to a 7.4 percent increase in the prices of leather, leather products, and footwear. 

On the other hand, the costs of ores and minerals decreased by 2.8 percent, mainly due to a 2.8 percent decrease in stone and sand prices.

Additionally, agricultural and fishery product expenses experienced a 1.3 percent year-on-year decrease in May, driven by a 2.8 percent decrease in fish and other fishing product prices and a 2.7 percent decline in live animals and animal product prices.

Furthermore, the prices of metal products, machinery, and equipment decreased by 0.4 percent in May compared to the same month of the previous year, attributed to a 6.6 percent decline in the prices of radio, television, and communication equipment and apparatus.

Compared to April, the Kingdom’s WPI decreased by 0.1 percent in May, driven by a 0.3 percent drop in the prices of food products, beverages, tobacco, and textiles. 

This decline resulted from a 1.7 percent decrease in the prices of meat, fish, fruit, vegetables, oils, and fats, and a 0.4 percent decline in the prices of leather, leather products, and footwear.

Similarly, the costs of agriculture and fishery products also decreased by 0.2 percent month-on-month, driven by a 1.6 percent fall in the prices of live animals and animal products.

Compared to April, the prices of other transportable goods declined by 0.1 percent in May, driven by a 0.7 percent decrease in the costs of basic chemicals.

In contrast, the costs of metal products, machinery, and equipment rose by 0.1 percent, as a result of a 1.1 percent increase in the prices of electrical machinery and apparatus.

Average prices rising

Meanwhile, in another report, GASTAT revealed that the prices of Abu Sorra Egyptian oranges increased by 22.70 percent in May compared to the previous month.

Similarly, the prices of local tomatoes and Turkish plums rose by 12.80 percent and 10.33 percent, respectively, in May from April.

Additionally, Indian pomegranates and Pakistani mandarins also experienced notable increases, rising by 10.15 percent and 9.71 percent, respectively.

On the other hand, hotel accommodation prices in Saudi Arabia witnessed a 13.94 percent month-on-month decline.

Similarly, the costs of local melons, Lebanese peaches, and imported onions dipped by 13.30 percent, 11.37 percent, and 9.34 percent, respectively.


UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

Updated 13 sec ago
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UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

  • Moody’s sees mild softening of prices over the next 12 - 8 months as rising completions add supply

RIYADH: The UAE’s residential real estate market is expected to see a modest decline in developer sales and a mild softening of prices over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply, Moody’s said.

Despite near-term easing, the credit ratings agency noted that developers are supported by strong revenue backlogs and solid financial positions, while regulatory measures have reduced banks’ exposure to the construction and property sectors, helping to preserve robust solvency and liquidity buffers across the financial system.

The broader trend is reflected in the UAE’s real estate market, which recorded a strong performance during the first three quarters of 2025, according to Markaz.

In Dubai, transaction values increased 28.3 percent year on year to 554.1 billion Emirati dirhams ($150.88 billion), while Abu Dhabi recorded total sales of 58 billion dirhams, up 75.8 percent year on year. The number of transactions in Abu Dhabi rose 42.3 percent to 15,800.

The report said: “After five years of extraordinary growth in the UAE’s residential real estate market, particularly in Dubai, we expect developer sales to decline modestly and some price softening over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply. 

“From 2026 to 2028, around 180,000 new units will be completed in Dubai, a significant increase from prior years that is likely to weigh on demand and slow price growth. 

“However, fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by continued population growth and an influx of high-net-worth individuals. Rated developers’ credit quality will remain resilient, supported by strong revenue backlogs, front-loaded payment plans and solid financial positions.”

Munir Al-Daraawi, founder and CEO of Dubai-based Orla Properties, told Arab News the Moody’s report underscores what the firm is seeing on the ground, namely “a market that is successfully transitioning from a period of extraordinary growth to one of sustainable stability.”

He added: “While a mild softening of prices and a modest decline in sales are anticipated over the next 12 to 18 months, these are natural adjustments for a maturing global hub like Dubai.” 

Al-Daraawi believes the the projected delivery of 180,000 units between 2026 and 2028 is not a cause for concern, but “a reflection of the UAE’s long-term appeal to high-net-worth individuals and a growing population.”   

The CEO added: “The report rightly points out that fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan and a significant influx of global talent.” 

He went on to note that the resilience of the sector is further bolstered by the solid financial positions of developers and the strong regulatory measures that have shielded the banking sector from excessive exposure.

“This creates a robust ecosystem where credit quality remains high, even as we navigate a more competitive landscape. For boutique and luxury-focused developers, the current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation — factors that will continue to define the UAE’s real estate success story,” said Al-Daraawi. 

The current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation.

Munir Al-Daraawi, Founder and CEO of Orla Properties

Riad Gohar, co-founder and CEO of BlackOak Real Estate, told Arab News that while Moody’s is correct to say that supply is rising, the conclusion of a broad slowdown ignores the structure of this current economic cycle.

He added: “First, this is not a debt-fueled market. Around 83 percent of Dubai residential transactions in 2024 and 2025 were non-mortgaged. That means the market is equity-driven, not credit-driven. When cycles are not built on leverage, corrections are typically shallow and segmented, not systemic. “

He added that the macroeconomic backdrop is stronger than in past cycles, driven by sustained non-oil gross domestic product increase, structural reforms, population growth, and capital inflows aligned with long-term national plans.

“Demand is not purely speculative; it is driven by migration, business formation, and wealth relocation,” the CEO said.

“Third, prime vs. non-prime must be separated. Any pressure from increased completions is more likely to affect marginal locations, not established prime areas supported by global HNWI inflows. Historically, prime assets in Dubai have shown resilience even during broader market pauses,” Gohar added.

He continued to clarify that for smaller developers, some may feel margin compression if sales moderate, but this becomes a consolidation phase, not a systemic risk.

“Banks’ real estate exposure has already declined to around 12 percent of total loans — from 19 percent in 2021 — and NPLs (non-performing loans) are low at 2.9 percent, meaning financial contagion risk is limited. Regulatory escrow structures and stricter oversight further reduce spillover,” the CEO said.

“We are in a capital-rich, cash-driven cycle, regulated market with strong GDP and population growth. If anything, weaker fringe players exiting would strengthen the core not destabilize it,” he said.

The Moody’s report highlighted that while most developers it rates will generate “substantial excess cash” over the next two to three years, there will be fewer opportunities to make significant investments, especially within the Dubai real estate market.

As well as prompting a shift toward corporate governance and, in particular, how developers deploy their rising liquidity, some firms are looking to diversify beyond their core business models.

“For instance, Binghatti has recently launched its first master-planned villa community, marking a departure from its historical focus on single-plot high-rise developments, as demand for villas continues to outperform that for apartments,” said the report.

It continued: “Others are looking beyond Dubai and the UAE for growth, whether through geographic diversification or expansion into unrelated sectors.

“For example, Damac’s owner, Hussain Sajwani, has announced significant planned investments in data center development across the US and Europe.

“Emaar continues to develop actively in Egypt and India and is evaluating potential entry into China and the US. Aldar has started development projects in the UK and Egypt, while Arada has begun building in Australia and the UK and Sobha is expanding into the US.”