Saudi Arabia’s real GDP to grow by 2.5% in 2024 driven by non-oil activities: World Bank 

Safaa El-Tayeb El-Kogali, World Bank’s country director for GCC. AN photo
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Updated 29 May 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s real GDP to grow by 2.5% in 2024 driven by non-oil activities: World Bank 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s real gross domestic product is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2024, driven primarily by robust non-oil private activities, which are predicted to grow by 4.8 percent.

Similarly, economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council region is projected to rebound to 2.8 percent and 4.7 percent in 2024 and 2025, respectively, according to the Spring 2024 Gulf Economic Update issued by the World Bank. 

With oil production quotas expected to be gradually lifted during the second half of 2024, oil GDP in the GCC is projected to grow by 1.7 percent this year before ramping up aggressively in 2025 to reach 6.9 percent.

Meanwhile, non-oil GDP in the GCC should remain robust and expand by 3.6 percent in 2024 and 3.5 percent in the medium term, supported by accommodative fiscal policy, lower interest rates, and strong private consumption and investment.

Talking to Arab News, Safaa El-Tayeb El-Kogali, World Bank’s country director for GCC, said the growth was further driven by region-wide efforts to steer economies away from oil.

“I have to point out here that really the efforts to reform the economy and diversify it in all the countries of the GCC are reflected in the robust growth of the non-oil economy, which is expected to be 3.5 percent in 2024 and 3.6 percent in 2025,” the top executive said.

However, she outlined that he GCC region experienced an economic slowdown in 2023, growing at an annual rate of 0.7 percent, after registering a stellar growth of 7.6 percent in 2022. 

While the growth in 2022 was supported by a boom in commodity prices, increased oil production, and strong non-hydrocarbon activities, the deceleration in 2023 was primarily due to cuts in oil production, which contracted by 5 percent, in line with tighter quotas introduced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, to stabilize oil prices, she added.

Thus, the overall oil GDP in the region is expected to register a contraction of 0.8 percent in 2024, according to the World Bank report, however, these trends are expected to be reversed in 2025, with oil output anticipated to ramp up aggressively resulting in 5.9 percent overall GDP growth.

According to the official, this was further exacerbated by tightening global monetary conditions and geopolitical developments, the “conflict in the Middle East” and the ramifications of shipping disruptions in the Red Sea. 

Further escalation of the war on Gaza could have adverse economic implications and spillover effects on the region, thus increasing uncertainty and dampening investor confidence, reduce tourism, cause capital outflows and financial market instability, weigh on investment growth, and subsequently weaken prospects for output and productivity growth, the report stated.

The World Bank official said: “In the context of expected slower global growth in 2024 for the third consecutive year, oil prices will continue to play an integral part in defining the growth prospects for the GCC region. Despite ongoing OPEC+ production cuts, average oil prices for 2024 are expected to remain flat compared to 2023, with a further decline anticipated in 2025.”

She added: “Despite the cautious oil production levels implemented by OPEC+ members, oil prices are expected to remain nearly unchanged in 2024 (at $80 per barrel) and further decline to $76 per barrel in 2025. Several factors present large uncertainties to energy market outlook, notably the geopolitical tensions recently exacerbated by the military attacks between Iran and Israel and the ongoing disruptions of commercial shipping routes in the Red Sea. Any further escalation in regional conflicts could disrupt energy supplies, leading to a spike in energy prices.”

According to the official, other factors include the recent strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, the degree of compliance by OPEC+ countries to production quotas, and the prospects of global economic growth and the ensuing volatility in world oil consumption and demand.

Additionally, weaker-than-projected growth in China could cause a sharper than expected deceleration in global economic activity, she further explained. 


How mining can transform Saudi Arabia’s economy

Updated 07 March 2026
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How mining can transform Saudi Arabia’s economy

  • Kingdom’s mineral wealth valued at $2.5tn, positioning mining as a third pillar of the national economy

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is accelerating its push into mining as part of its economic transformation under Vision 2030, amid the growing importance of critical minerals and rare earths.

The Kingdom’s mineral wealth is valued at $2.5 trillion, positioning mining as a third pillar of the national economy alongside hydrocarbons.

The mining industry could give Saudi Arabia an edge in transition minerals and supply chains by expanding extraction, processing and the logistics needed to move materials to market, according to economists and industry specialists.

Saudi Arabia is home to more than 45 identified minerals, including gold, copper and uranium, according to the Vision 2030 strategy.

Momentum has been supported by measures aimed at making mining easier to invest in and faster to scale, including updated regulations, digital licensing platforms, specialized mining services, and new transport and rail links to mining areas.

Vision 2030 aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to SR240 billion ($63 billion) by 2030, create 200,000 direct and indirect jobs, and attract $27 billion in new investment, according to published government targets.

Signs of progress are starting to show in the mining sector in terms of exploration activity, licensing and new discoveries.

“The mining strategy shows it’s working very well, evidenced by the rapid rise in exploration and industrial licenses, and major new mineral discoveries,” Talat Hafiz, an economist and financial analyst, told Arab News.

Saudi Arabia is undertaking the world’s largest geological survey, covering about 700,000 sq. km of the Arabian Shield for $1.5 billion, he said. 

The number of mining licenses issued exceeds 2,000, according to official data, and the Kingdom’s mineral wealth is valued at 90 percent higher than it was in 2016 when Vision 2030 was rolled out.

A key milestone highlighted in Vision 2030’s mining strategy was the introduction of a new mining investment law, which reduced the tax rate to 20 percent from 45 percent to spur investment and align the sector with global standards.

The Kingdom’s mining resources position it well to be a critical supplier of raw materials that are integral to energy transition as clean-energy technologies require large volumes of mined materials.

Copper is central to electrification and power networks, while battery supply chains rely on minerals such as nickel and lithium. Phosphate is a key industrial input with wider economic value.

Reliable supplies of metals and minerals used in power grids, batteries and electric vehicles can attract investment and support downstream industry in the Kingdom.

Saudi Arabia’s Jabal Sayid site, northeast of Jeddah, ranks among the world’s top four resources for rare earth elements, Khalid Al-Mudaifer, vice minister of industry and mineral resources for mining affairs, recently told Al Eqtisadiah.

It will help meet Saudi Arabia’s needs for minerals used in magnet manufacturing, EVs and wind energy, while also supporting global supply, including the US market, he said.

Mining can also catalyze investment in the Kingdom, widen supply-chain employment, and boost non-oil exports and private-sector growth, according to economists and policymakers.

Mines, processing plants and the infrastructure around them require large upfront capital spending, creating a pipeline of work across construction, equipment, utilities and logistics. 

The mining industry could give Saudi Arabia an edge in transition minerals and supply chains by expanding extraction, processing and the logistics needed to move materials to market. (Shutterstock)

“When a mining sector scales, the economic footprint extends well beyond extraction,” said Turki Al-Nahari, vice president of global mining at Ecolab, told Arab News. “Growth typically occurs across engineering services, industrial water management, logistics, laboratory testing, equipment reliability, environmental services and digital performance systems.

“That shift creates demand for skilled engineers, technicians, data analysts and operational specialists,” he added.

In 2025, Saudi Arabia’s mining exploration budget increased 600 percent to $146 million from $21 million in 2022.

“This growth is driven by ongoing geological surveys, technological advancements and higher exploitation budgets, all of which signal stability and opportunity, attracting foreign investment,” Manraj Lamba, a mining economics analyst at S&P Global, said in a recent report.

Mining projects are easier to finance when the size and quality of the deposit are clear, costs are competitive, and rules and taxes are stable, Abdullah Al-Harbi, an economist familiar with the industry, told Arab News.

Investors want solid feasibility work, credible timelines and evidence a project can stay profitable through swings in commodity prices, Al-Harbi said.

Saudi Arabia’s pipeline includes 24 exploration-stage projects and 17 more advanced developments, according to S&P Global.

“Its proactive approach to geological surveys and resource assessment has uncovered significant potential across gold, copper, phosphate and bauxite,” Lamba said.

Large projects also tend to generate employment across a wider industrial supply chain, including contractors, maintenance, laboratories, transport and a range of operational services.

To boost employment and support hiring and training, Saudi Arabia has moved to standardize job roles and skills for the mining industry. 

HIGHLIGHT

Vision 2030 aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to SR240 billion ($63 billion) by 2030, create 200,000 direct and indirect jobs, and attract $27 billion in new investment.

The Kingdom rolled out a framework related to employment and skills in the mining industry in January at the Global Labor Market Conference.

The framework is “a tool which ensures clear definitions of occupations and their required skills,” the Kingdom’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Al-Khorayef said. It will cover more than 500 job roles, detail the necessary skills, responsibilities and titles, he added.

Exports from the sector are already rising in tandem with investments to develop the industry and create jobs.

Saudi Arabia exported 5.7 million tonnes of phosphate fertilizer in 2024, up about 6 percent from 2023, according to a GASTAT report.

As the energy transition accelerates, Saudi Arabia’s advantage may be strongest beyond extraction alone.

“Saudi Arabia’s most realistic advantage in the accelerating energy transition lies in combining selective mining with strong processing and refining capabilities, supported by its emerging role as a logistics and supply-chain hub,” Hafiz said.

The Kingdom’s position between Africa, Europe, and Asia favors downstream processing and value-added industries, he added.

“Saudi Arabia is prioritizing minerals that are both financeable and strategically aligned with emerging industries such as electric vehicles and clean energy technologies, where markets are clear, and demand is scalable,” Hafiz said.

Aluminum, phosphate, and similar commodities remain a key focus to support local manufacturing, infrastructure development and downstream industries while strengthening export capacity, he said.

“Once construction concludes, the priority shifts to operational stability and performance optimization,” Al-Nahari said.

“Small efficiency gains, applied consistently across large-scale operations, compound materially over time,” influencing cost as well as uptime and competitiveness over the life of a mine, he added.

As the global race toward electrification and decarbonization accelerates, the Kingdom is effectively positioning itself beyond its oil legacy with its strategic commitment to the minerals sector, which will play a critical role in powering the future.

Its investment in exploration, infrastructure, and downstream processing anchor it as a pivotal supplier in the critical minerals and rare earths value chain in the era of energy transition.