Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector to grow by 4.8% in 2024: Riyad Capital 

In its latest report, Riyad Capital stated that the sector will accelerate further in 2025, with a projected expansion rate of 5.2 percent. Shutterstock
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Updated 27 May 2024
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Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector to grow by 4.8% in 2024: Riyad Capital 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector is projected to grow at a rate of 4.8 percent in 2024, driven by the Kingdom’s growth-oriented fiscal policy, according to an analysis. 

In its latest report, Riyad Capital stated that the sector will accelerate further in 2025, with a projected expansion rate of 5.2 percent. 

“We project continued solid growth for non-oil activities, fostered by a growth-oriented fiscal policy with a focus on increased investment spending, which will spur growth in the coming years,” stated Riyad Capital.  

This follows a trend where non-oil activities experienced a rise of 5.6 percent and 4.4 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively. 

Developing the sector is crucial for the Kingdom as it steadily pursues its Vision 2030 goals to reduce dependency on oil. 

According to the report, Saudi Arabia's overall economic growth is poised to rebound in the coming years, with the nation's gross domestic product expected to expand by 2.3 percent in 2024 and accelerate to 5.8 percent in 2025. 

The analysis projected that the Kingdom’s fiscal deficit could shrink to 3 percent and 1.8 percent of GDP in 2024 and 2025, respectively. 

“After a surplus of 3.2 percent of GDP in 2023, we expect the current account balance to rise again to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2024. It will further expand to 4.9 percent of GDP in 2025 on the back of notably higher projected oil export revenues next year,” said Riyad Capital.  

On the other hand, the inflation rate in the Kingdom is expected to decline to 2 percent in 2024 and witness a moderate acceleration to 2.4 percent in 2025. 

Riyad Capital also expects Saudi Arabia’s oil production to reach more than 10 million barrels per day over the next 18 months. 

“We expect oil production to expand again above 10 mbd in the course of the next 18 months, with the better part of this increase taking place in 2025. Therefore, the oil sector GDP contribution will still be mildly negative in 2024 with –2.2 percent, but record substantial growth of 8.7 percent in 2025,” said the report.  

The analysis further pointed out that global oil prices are expected to remain volatile but at elevated levels, with Brent crude to fall in a range between $80 and $90 in 2024 and 2025. 


Kuwait to boost Islamic finance with sukuk regulation

Updated 11 min 26 sec ago
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Kuwait to boost Islamic finance with sukuk regulation

  • The move supports sustainable financing and is part of Kuwait’s efforts to diversify its oil-dependent economy

RIYADH: Kuwait is planning to introduce legislation to regulate the issuance of sukuk, or Islamic bonds, both domestically and internationally, as part of efforts to support more sustainable financing for the oil-rich Gulf nation, Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah said on Wednesday.

Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, Al-Sabah highlighted that Kuwait is exploring a variety of debt instruments to diversify its economy. The country has been implementing fiscal reforms aimed at stimulating growth and controlling its budget deficit amid persistently low oil prices. Hydrocarbons continue to dominate Kuwait’s revenue stream, accounting for nearly 90 percent of government income in 2024.

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s debt capital market is projected to exceed $1.25 trillion by 2026, driven by project funding and government initiatives, representing a 13.6 percent expansion, according to Fitch Ratings.

The region is expected to remain one of the largest sources of US dollar-denominated debt and sukuk issuance among emerging markets. Fitch also noted that cross-sector economic diversification, refinancing needs, and deficit funding are key factors behind this growth.

“We are about to approve the first legislation regulating issuance of government sukuk locally and internationally, in accordance with Islamic laws,” Al-Sabah said.

“This enables us to deal with financial challenges flexibly and responsibly, and to plan for medium and long-term finances.”

Kuwait returned to global debt markets last year with strong results, raising $11.25 billion through a three-part bond sale — the country’s first US dollar issuance since 2017 — drawing substantial investor demand. In March, a new public debt law raised the borrowing ceiling to 30 billion dinars ($98 billion) from 10 billion dinars, enabling longer-term borrowing.

The Gulf’s debt capital markets, which totaled $1.1 trillion at the end of the third quarter of 2025, have evolved from primarily sovereign funding tools into increasingly sophisticated instruments serving governments, banks, and corporates alike. As diversification efforts accelerate and refinancing cycles intensify, regional issuers have become regular participants in global debt markets, reinforcing the GCC’s role in emerging-market capital flows.

In 2025, GCC countries accounted for 35 percent of all emerging-market US dollar debt issuance, excluding China, with growth in US dollar sukuk issuance notably outpacing conventional bonds. The region’s total outstanding debt capital markets grew more than 14 percent year on year, reaching $1.1 trillion.