Lebanon’s reforms insufficient for recovery, IMF says 

Fiscal and monetary reforms carried out by Lebanon’s finance ministry and the central bank, including steps to unify multiple exchange rates for the Lebanese pound and contain a currency slump, have helped reduce inflationary pressure, said Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, the head of the IMF mission visiting Lebanon.
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Updated 23 May 2024
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Lebanon’s reforms insufficient for recovery, IMF says 

Lebanon’s economic reforms are insufficient to help lift the country out of its economic crisis, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday. 

Ernesto Ramirez Rigo, the head of the IMF mission visiting Lebanon, said in a statement that Lebanon’s ongoing refugee crisis, fighting with Israel at its Southern border and the spillover from the war in Gaza are exacerbating an already dire economic situation. 

Israeli forces and Lebanon’s Hezbollah have traded fire across Lebanon’s southern border since the war in Gaza broke out in October last year. 

Israel launched its assault on Gaza following a Hamas-led attack on southern Israeli communities on Oct. 7 in which fighters killed 1,200 people and captured more than 250 hostages. 

Since then, Israel’s assault has killed more than 35,000 people, with thousands more feared buried under the rubble, according to Gaza health authorities. 

The conflict “has internally displaced a significant number of people and caused damage to infrastructure, agriculture, and trade in southern Lebanon. Together with a decline in tourism, the high risks associated with the conflict create significant uncertainty to the economic outlook,” Rigo said. 

Fiscal and monetary reforms carried out by Lebanon’s finance ministry and the central bank, including steps to unify multiple exchange rates for the Lebanese pound and contain a currency slump, have helped reduce inflationary pressure, according to Rigo. 

However, he said more needs to be done if Lebanon is to alleviate its financial crisis. 

“These policy measures fall short of what is needed to enable a recovery from the crisis. Bank deposits remain frozen, and the banking sector is unable to provide credit to the economy, as the government and parliament have been unable to find a solution to the banking crisis,” he added. 

“Addressing the banks’ losses while protecting depositors to the maximum extent possible and limiting recourse to scarce public resources in a credible and financially viable manner is indispensable to lay the foundation for economic recovery.” 

Since Lebanon’s economy began to unravel in 2019, its currency has lost around 95 percent of its value, banks have locked most depositors out of their savings and more than 80 percent of the population has sunk below the poverty line. 

The crisis erupted after decades of profligate spending and corruption among the ruling elite, some of whom led banks that lent heavily to the state. 

The government estimates losses in the financial system total more than $70 billion, the majority of which were accrued at the central bank. 


 


Saudi banking sector outlook stable on higher non-oil growth: Moody’s 

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Saudi banking sector outlook stable on higher non-oil growth: Moody’s 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s banking sector outlook remains stable as stronger non-oil economic growth and solid capital buffers support lending and profitability, Moody’s Ratings said, forecasting continued expansion despite liquidity constraints. 

In its latest report, credit rating agency Moody’s said the Kingdom’s non-oil gross domestic product is projected to expand by 4.2 percent this year, up from 3.7 percent recorded in 2025. 

In January, S&P Global echoed a similar view, saying banks operating in Saudi Arabia are expected to sustain strong lending growth in 2026, driven by financing demand tied to Vision 2030 projects. 

Fitch Ratings also underscored the healthy state of Saudi Arabia’s banking system last month, stating that credit growth and high net interest margins are supporting bank profitability in the Kingdom. 

Commenting on the latest report, Ashraf Madani, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody’s Ratings, said: “We expect credit demand to remain robust, but tight liquidity conditions will continue to limit the sector’s lending capacity.” 

Madani added that operating conditions in Saudi Arabia will continue to support banks’ strong asset quality and profitability. 

“The operating environment for banks remains buoyant, underpinned by a forecast increase in non-oil GDP growth, robust solvency and continued progress toward the government’s economic diversification goals,” he added.  

Moody’s said authorities in the Kingdom are introducing business-friendly reforms to bolster investment and private sector activity, while implementing key development projects and preparing for major global events. 

Saudi Arabia continues to advance reforms including full foreign ownership rights, simplified capital market registration procedures and improved investor protections, which could accelerate credit growth to 8 percent this year. 

Problem loans are expected to remain near historical lows at around 1.3 percent of total loans, supported by ongoing credit growth, favorable operating conditions and lower interest rates, which collectively strengthen borrowers’ repayment capacity. 

Retail credit risk remains controlled in Saudi Arabia because most borrowers are government employees with stable income streams. 

“Concentration of single borrowers and specific sectors remains high although the growing proportion of consumer loans — now nearing 50 percent of overall sector lending — continues to reduce aggregate concentration risk,” added Moody’s.  

The report said profitability is expected to remain solid among Saudi banks, supported by sustained loan growth and fee income. 

Margins are expected to remain stable despite lower asset yields as banks take advantage of credit demand to widen loan spreads on existing and new lending. 

Moody’s expects net income to tangible assets to remain stable at 1.8 percent to 1.9 percent this year. 

The report added that Saudi banks benefit from a very high likelihood of government support in the event of any failures. 

“We assume a very high likelihood of government support in the event of a bank failure. This is based on the government’s track record of timely intervention,” Moody’s said.  

It added that Saudi Arabia remains the only G-20 country that has not adopted a banking resolution framework. However, it is the only Gulf Cooperation Council member to have introduced a law for systemically important financial institutions.