Rooting for Trump to fail has made his stock shorters millions

Pedestrians walk past the Nasdaq building on March 26, 2024, in New York with the stock price of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., displayed on screens. (AP Photo)
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Updated 27 April 2024
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Rooting for Trump to fail has made his stock shorters millions

  • Wall Street investors have collectively make millions by betting that the stock price of Trump's social media business — Truth Social — will keep dropping despite massive buying by Trump loyalists

NEW YORK: Rooting for Donald Trump to fail has rarely been this profitable.

Just ask a hardy band of mostly amateur Wall Street investors who have collectively made tens of millions of dollars over the past month by betting that the stock price of his social media business — Truth Social — will keep dropping despite massive buying by Trump loyalists and wild swings that often mirror the candidate’s latest polls, court trials and outbursts on Truth Social itself.
Several of these investors interviewed by The Associated Press say their bearish gambles using “put” options and other trading tools are driven less by their personal feelings about the former president (most don’t like him) than their faith in the woeful underlying financials of a company that made less money last year than the average Wendy’s hamburger franchise.
“This company makes no money. ... It makes no sense,” said Boise, Idaho, ad executive Elle Stange, who estimates she’s made $1,300 betting against Trump Media & Technology stock. “He’s not as great a businessman as he thinks. A lot of his businesses go belly up, quickly.”
Says Seattle IT security specialist Jeff Cheung, “This is guaranteed to go to zero.”




The Truth social network logo is seen on a smartphone in front of a display of former US President Donald Trump in this picture illustration taken February 21, 2022. (REUTERS)

As of Friday’s close, a month since Trump Media’s initial public offering sent its stock to $66.22, it has dropped to $41.54. An AP analysis of data from research firms FactSet and S3 Partners shows that investors using puts and “short selling” have paper profits so far of at least $200 million, not including the costs of puts, which vary from trade to trade.
Still, amateur traders, mostly risking no more than a few thousand dollars each, say the stock is too volatile to declare victory yet. So they are cashing in a bit now, letting other bets ride and stealing a glance at the latest stock movements in the office cubicle, at the kitchen table or even on the toilet.
There have been plenty of scary moments, including last week when DJT, the ex-president’s initials and stock ticker, jumped nearly 40 percent in two days.
“I don’t know which direction the stock is going,” says Schenectady, N.Y., day trader Richard Persaud while checking his iPhone amid the surge. “It’s so unbelievably overvalued.”
Many who spoke to the AP say knowing their bets have helped slash the value of Trump’s 65 percent stake in half is an added political benefit. If some of their predictions are right, they may able to someday push it to zero, making it impossible for him to tap it to pay his hefty legal bills or finance his GOP presidential campaign.
They have a long way to go. Trump’s stake is still worth $4 billion.
Normally, investors betting a stock will fall, especially a gutsy breed of hedge fund traders called “short sellers,” will do plenty of homework. They’ll pore over financial statements, develop expertise in an industry, talk to competitors, and even turn to “forensic accountants” to find hidden weaknesses in the books.
No need in Trump Media’s case. It’s all there in the Sarasota, Florida-based company’s 100-page financial report: A firehose of losses, $58 million last year, on minuscule revenue of $4 million from advertising and other sources.
The losses are so big, as Trump Media’s auditor wrote in the report, they “raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.”
A short seller’s dream? Or is it a nightmare?
Amateur trader Manny Marotta has two computer screens at home, one for work, the other showing DJT stock’s movements where he can gauge how much he’s up or down.
It wasn’t looking so good earlier this week.




The stock price chart for the Trump Media and Technology Group on the NASDAQ website is seen on a computer screen in New York on April 19, 2024. (AP Photo)

The legal writer from suburban Cleveland had been up about $4,000 on “put” options purchased over the past few weeks. But the screen that morning was showing investors, presumably rich ones, buying large volumes of DJT shares, pushing up the stock once again.
“My options are worth less with every passing minute,” says Marotta, adding about DJT: “It’s being manipulated. It’s insane.”
Waiting for the stock to drop is especially painful to “short sellers,” who pay a fee to borrow shares owned by others. The idea is to quickly sell them on a hunch they will be able to buy the same number of them later for much cheaper before having to return them to the lender. That allows short sellers to pocket the difference, minus the fee, which is usually nominal.
In DJT’s case, the fee is anything but nominal.
It was costing 565 percent a year at one point earlier this month, meaning short sellers had only two months before any possible profits would be eaten up in fees, even if the stock went to zero. It’s a rate so off the charts, that only three other stocks in recent memory have exceeded it, according to data from Boston University’s Karl Diether and Wharton’s Itamar Drechsler, who have studied short selling back two decades.
Add in massive buying by Trump supporters who see it as a way to support their candidate, and losses could multiply fast.
“It’s scary,” says Drechsler, who likens buyers of Trump’s stock to unwavering sports fans. “It is everything that you hope that the stock market is not.”
Trump Media spokeswoman Shannon Devine said the company is in a “strong financial position” with $200 million in cash and no debt, and said the AP was “selecting admitted Trump antagonists.”
Another danger to the stock is a “short squeeze.” If the price rises sharply, it could set off a rush by short sellers who fear they’ve bet wrongly to return their borrowed shares right away and limit their losses. And so they start buying shares to replace the ones they borrowed and sold, and that very buying tends to work against them, sending the price higher, which in turn scares other short sellers, who then also buy, setting off a vicious cycle of price hikes.
“If DJT starts rallying, you’re going to see the mother of all squeezes,” says S3 Partners short-selling expert Ihor Dusaniwsky, who spent three decades at Morgan Stanley helping investors borrow shares. “This is not for the faint of heart.”
And if that wasn’t enough, there is a final oddball feature of DJT stock that could trigger an explosion in prices, up or down.
“Lock up” agreements prohibit Trump and other DJT executives from selling their shares until September. That leaves the float, or the number of shares that can be traded each day by others, at a dangerously tiny 29 percent of total shares that will someday flood the market. That means a big purchase or sale on any day that would barely move a typical stock can send DJT flying or crashing.
The float is smaller than that of most other notoriously volatile stocks. At their smallest levels, AMC, GameStop and Shake Shack each had more than double the float.
Seattle trader Cheung sees DJT’s freak characteristics as a reason to bet against the stock, not shy away. When the lock-up period ends, he predicts, the ex-president will indeed sell his shares, spooking the market and sending the price down sharply. And even if he doesn’t, other insiders whose lock-ups expire will fear he will do so and will move fast to get a good price before it falls.
“The first one to sell out is going make to most, ” Cheung says. “Everyone is going to sell.”
Still, he doesn’t want to lose money in the interim, so Cheung is offsetting some of his “put” bets with the purchase of “calls.” The latter are also derivatives, but they do the opposite, paying off when the stock rises. Cheung hopes that whichever makes money, the puts or the calls, he will make enough with one to more than make up for the loss of the other.
If all of this seems too complicated, there is a far simpler way to make money betting against Trump.
Offshore, casino-style betting sites are taking wagers on the 2024 election, and some have even made President Joe Biden the favorite.
 


Federal grand jury indicts Wisconsin judge in immigration case, allowing charges to continue

Updated 7 sec ago
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Federal grand jury indicts Wisconsin judge in immigration case, allowing charges to continue

  • Prosecutors charged Dugan in April via complaint with concealing an individual to prevent arrest and obstruction

MADISON, Wisconsin: A federal grand jury on Tuesday indicted a Wisconsin judge accused of helping a man evade immigration authorities, allowing the case against her to continue.
The arrest of Milwaukee County Circuit Judge Hannah Dugan escalated a clash between President Donald Trump’s administration and local authorities over the Republican’s sweeping immigration crackdown. Democrats have accused the Trump administration of trying to make a national example of Dugan to chill judicial opposition to the crackdown.
Prosecutors charged Dugan in April via complaint with concealing an individual to prevent arrest and obstruction. In the federal criminal justice system, prosecutors can initiate charges against a defendant directly by filing a complaint or present evidence to a grand jury and let that body decide whether to issue charges.
A grand jury still reviews charges brought by complaint to determine whether enough probable cause exists to continue the case as a check on prosecutors’ power. If the grand jury determines there’s probable cause, it issues a written statement of the charges known as an indictment. That’s what happened in Dugan’s case.
Her case is similar to one brought during the first Trump administration against a Massachusetts judge, who was accused of helping a man sneak out a courthouse back door to evade a waiting immigration enforcement agent. That case was eventually dismissed.
Prosecutors say Dugan escorted Eduardo Flores-Ruiz and his lawyer out of her courtroom through a back jury door on April 18 after learning that US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents were in the courthouse seeking his arrest.
According to court documents, Flores-Ruiz illegally reentered the US after being deported in 2013. Online state court records show he was charged with three counts of misdemeanor domestic abuse in Milwaukee County in March. He was in Dugan’s courtroom that morning of April 18 for a hearing.
Court documents suggest Dugan was alerted to the agents’ presence by her clerk, who was informed by an attorney that the agents appeared to be in the hallway. An affidavit says Dugan was visibly angry over the agents’ arrival and called the situation “absurd” before leaving the bench and retreating to her chambers. She and another judge later approached members of the arrest team in the courthouse with what witnesses described as a “confrontational, angry demeanor.”
After a back-and-forth with the agents over the warrant for Flores-Ruiz, Dugan demanded they speak with the chief judge and led them away from the courtroom, according to the affidavit.
She then returned to the courtroom and was heard saying words to the effect of “wait, come with me” and ushered Flores-Ruiz and his attorney out through a back jury door typically used only by deputies, jurors, court staff and in-custody defendants, according to the affidavit. Flores-Ruiz was free on a signature bond in the abuse case at the time, according to online state court records.
Federal agents ultimately captured him outside the courthouse after a foot chase.
The state Supreme Court suspended Dugan from the bench in late April, saying the move was necessary to preserve public confidence in the judiciary. A reserve judge is filling in for her.


Ukraine completes steps for minerals deal with US, deputy prime minister says

Updated 44 min 28 sec ago
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Ukraine completes steps for minerals deal with US, deputy prime minister says

Ukraine has concluded procedures for implementation of a deal with the United States on exploiting minerals, including the operation of an investment fund, the country’s first deputy prime minister said on Tuesday.
Yulia Svyrydenko gave few details of the latest step in securing approval of the accord, promoted by US President Donald Trump, but it was known that two additional documents were drawn up as part of its implementation.
“Another milestone on the path to launching the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund: Ukraine has completed all necessary procedures on schedule,” Svyrydenko wrote in English on social media.
She said a note certifying completion of the process had been handed to interim US Charge d’Affaires Julie Davis.
“These are equal agreements — forward-looking, aligned with Ukraine’s national interests, and structured to ensure investment flows exclusively into Ukraine’s recovery and growth,” Svyrydenko wrote.
After weeks of tough negotiations following a shouting match between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office, Svyrydenko signed the minerals agreement in Washington and it was ratified last week by the Ukrainian parliament.
After that vote, Svyrydenko described the accord as “not merely a legal construct — it is the foundation of a new model of interaction with a key strategic partner.”
The minerals agreement hands the United States preferential access to new Ukrainian minerals deals and sets up the investment fund, which could be used for the reconstruction of Ukraine for the first 10 years.
Ukraine also sees the deal as a way to unlock supplies of new US weapons, especially additional Patriot air defense systems it sees as vital to protect against Russian air attacks.
Zelensky hailed the reworked draft of the agreement as a marked improvement over earlier versions that some critics in Ukraine had denounced as “colonial.” The accord also acknowledges Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union. 


Macron says France does not want ‘World War III’ over Ukraine

Updated 54 min 9 sec ago
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Macron says France does not want ‘World War III’ over Ukraine

PARIS: President Emmanuel Macron said Tuesday that France did not want to unleash “World War III” over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and vowed referendums on key issues as he outlined his aims for for the remaining two years of his mandate in a marathon television appearance.
Macron, who came to power in 2017 promising radical change, will step down in 2027 after serving the maximum two terms allowed under the constitution.
On occasion over the last year, Macron has appeared as a lame duck especially after his decision to hold snap legislative elections backfired, leaving the far-right as the biggest party in parliament and his own party a diminished, minority presence.
But recent months have seen a newly energised Macron, boosted by his presence on the international front as he seeks to bring an end to the three-year-war sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“We must help Ukraine defend itself but we do not want to unleash a Third World War,” Macron said in the interview that lasted more than three hours.
“The war must cease and Ukraine must be in the best possible situation to go into negotiations,” he added.
But Macron said France was ready to start discussing with other European countries deploying French warplanes armed with nuclear weapons on their territory, as the United States does.
“The Americans have the bombs on planes in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Turkiye,” Macron said.
“We are ready to open this discussion. I will define the framework in a very specific way in the weeks and months to come,” he said.
Those who put their points of view in front of Macron ranged from the head of the hard-line CGT union, Sophie Binet, to Tibo Inshape, a muscular and massively followed fitness influencer.
Amid concern about some 600 jobs in France, Macron told Binet that the French operations of steelmaker ArcelorMittal would not be nationalized but vowed to save its two plants in the country.
In a key announcement, he said he favored holding several referendums on the same day for voters to decide on French social and economic “reforms.”
“I want us to organize a series of consultations,” Macron said, adding that the votes would take place on one day in coming months and address “major” economic and social reforms.
While he would not go into details, he was open to a suggestion by Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, who has proposed holding a referendum on a plan to reduce France’s debt.
However, Macron rejected the idea of putting immigration issues to a popular vote despite repeated requests from the right and far right.
Tackling delicate social issues, the French president spoke out against the wearing of religious symbols, such as the Islamic veil, in sports competitions, but he added that for non-competitive sports practice it was up to sports federations to decide.
While Macron, 47, must step down in 2027 after serving two consecutive terms, he could in theory return in 2032, something no French leader has ever done before.
But he said at the end of the TV marathon he had not yet thought about his future after 2027 and was only thinking of France in his daily work.


New suburban Chicago mayor promises equal rights for Arabs ‘disrespected’ by predecessor

Updated 14 May 2025
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New suburban Chicago mayor promises equal rights for Arabs ‘disrespected’ by predecessor

  • Jim Dodge tells Arab News all residents deserve same level of respect ‘regardless of their race, religion or national origin,’ and irrespective of any issue they might raise
  • He defeated Keith Pekau, who last year clashed during a village meeting with Arab Americans who asked him to support a ceasefire in Gaza, telling them to ‘go to another country’

ORLAND PARK, ILLINOIS: Jim Dodge, who on April 1 won the election to become mayor of Orland Park in suburban Chicago, unseating a predecessor accused of disrespecting and bullying local Arab Americans, vowed that those residents will now receive “the respect they deserve as community residents, business owners, taxpayers and families.”

In an interview with Arab News, he said that every resident deserves to receive the same level of respect “regardless of their race, religion or national origin,” and irrespective of any particular issue they might want to raise.

Dodge’s comment related to a confrontation during a village board meeting on Feb. 5, 2024, between the former mayor, Keith Pekau, and 75 members of the Arab American community who asked him to support a resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. The board had passed a similar resolution on Ukraine a few months earlier but Pekau responded to the Gaza request by brushing it aside, criticizing the residents and telling them to “go to another country” if they did not like living in America.

When Arab Americans attending the meeting protested against his comments, Pekau ordered them out of the chamber, paused the meeting until they were gone, and then reconvened with no members of the public present and continued to berate the community over its request.

Dodge described Pekau’s response to the residents of the village as “inappropriate” and “disrespectful,” adding: “We are all people who live in Orland Park and we want to see the best things for our community, for our families and for our children. It’s about attitude. That’s not what we saw at that meeting.

“Nobody should be prejudged because of their race, religion or ethnicity. Orland Park has a strong and vibrant, diverse community of residents and they all deserve respect, regardless of the issues. Arab Americans are no different than any other community we have in Orland Park; Irish, Polish, Hispanics, many others — everyone should be treated with respect and that is what I promise my administration will do.”

Pekau’s abusive response motivated Arab Americans in the area to make an effort to increase voter engagement in the run-up to the elections. More than 1,000 Arab Americans subsequently registered to vote, which played a part in removing Pekau from office.

Dodge, who received 9,539 votes in the mayoral election to Pekau’s 6,960, said what Arab Americans had experienced was similar to the experiences of other communities in the village under Pekau’s brand of leadership. “Together, they all brought this important change,” he added.

Dodge, who held his first board meeting last week, said one of his first priorities will be to restore the village’s committee system, which Pekau dismantled, that allows residents to participate in policy decisions and engage with officials directly on a variety of important issues. He added that he would meet with leaders from all communities to ensure they can engage in this way.

Arab American community leaders welcomed Dodge’s “open-minded approach to government and inclusion.”

Mohammed Jaber, who serves as a board trustee for High School District 230, which contains three high schools with a large proportion of Arab students, said the approach promised by the new mayor was exactly what Orland Park and its Arab American residents need.

“The most important thing is to be involved and work with one another for the betterment of Orland Park,” Jaber told Arab News.

“It doesn’t mean that everyone agrees on an issue, it means that our officials listen and consider the positions and ideas we have as constituents, especially since we are 25 percent of the tax base. That in itself is a major change from the past administration.”

Lena Matariyeh, who won a seat on the Orland Township Board of Trustees in another local election on April 1, said past experiences with Pekau and other nonresponsive local elected officials had shown Arab Americans the importance of being actively engaged with local elections and speaking out on community issues.

“What happens in our local communities, like Orland Park, truly matters,” she told Arab News. “Change begins at the grassroots level and when we come together, regardless of background, we can help shape the future we want to see.

“The recent elections showed an inspiring level of engagement from the Arab American community, and many others who are stepping up, getting involved and making their voices heard. It’s about ensuring that all communities feel represented, respected and included in the decisions that impact their daily lives.”

Hassan Nijem, president of the American Arab Chamber of Commerce of Illinois, praised Dodge for his commitment to respecting all residents, including Arab Americans.

“This is significant that a mayor of a major suburban city has said that he rejects the disrespect the former mayor showed to our community,” Nijem told Arab News.

“Our community came together and we got involved to make change happen, and we did that. We are looking forward to being actively involved in local government issues, to being heard, and to participating in forging the future of Orland Park, which has a large Arab American community.”

Arab Americans need to develop stronger voices in their communities, and the wider country, if they hope to increase their ability to help bring about peaceful, positive change in the Middle East, where their origins lie.

Arab American candidates won 18 of 36 election contests in the Chicagoland suburbs last month, a feat that surpassed previous voting achievements. Orland Park has more than 58,000 residents and is the largest municipality in the southwestern suburbs of Chicago.


Uruguay’s ex-president Jose 'Pepe' Mujica dead at 89

Updated 13 May 2025
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Uruguay’s ex-president Jose 'Pepe' Mujica dead at 89

  • Jose 'Pepe' Mujica was a guerrilla fighter and hero of the Latin American left
  • Mujica won fame as the 'world’s poorest president' for giving away much of his salary to charity

MONTEVIDEO: Uruguay’s former president Jose “Pepe” Mujica, a guerrilla fighter and hero of the Latin American left, has died at the age of 89, the government in Montevideo said Tuesday.
“With deep sorrow, we announce the passing of our comrade Pepe Mujica. President, activist, guide and leader. We will miss you greatly, old friend,” the country’s current president, Yamandu Orsi, said on X.
Mujica won fame as the “world’s poorest president” for giving away much of his salary to charity, during his 2010-2015 presidency.
In May 2024, he was diagnosed with cancer of the esophagus, which later spread to his liver.
His wife Lucia Topolansky said this week he was receiving palliative care.
The man who made Uruguay into a paragon of progressive politics by legalizing abortion, gay marriage and the use of recreational cannabis, campaigned for the left until the end.
In a November 2024 interview with AFP he described the presidential victory of his political heir, history teacher Orsi, as “a reward” at the end of his career.
The blunt-spoken, snowy-haired politician was a fierce critic of consumer culture.
As president he walked the talk by actively rejecting the trappings of office.
He attended official events in sandals and continued living on his small farm on the outskirts of Montevideo, where his prized possession was a 1987 Volkswagen Beetle.
Tupamaros movement
In the 1960s, he co-founded the Marxist-Leninist urban guerrilla movement Tupamaros, which started out robbing from the rich to give to the poor but later escalated its campaign to kidnappings, bombings and assassinations.
During those years, Mujica lived a life of derring-do. He sustained multiple gunshot wounds and took part in a mass prison breakout.
But when the Tupamaros collapsed in 1972, he was recaptured and spent all of Uruguay’s 1973-1985 dictatorship in prison, where he was tortured and spent years in solitary confinement.
After his release, he threw himself into politics and in 1989 founded the Movement of Popular Participation (MPP), the largest member of the leftist Broad Front coalition.
Elected to parliament in 1995, he became a senator in 2000 and then agriculture minister in Uruguay’s first-ever left-wing government.
He served just one five-year term as president, in line with Uruguay’s term limits.
Mujica had no children and is survived by fellow ex-guerrilla Topolansky.