Long-awaited US military aid no ‘silver bullet’ for Ukraine

A serviceman of the 1148th separate artillery brigade of Air Assault Troops of Ukraine prepares a M777 howitzer to fire towards Russian troops, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine April 20, 2024. (Reuters)
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Updated 25 April 2024
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Long-awaited US military aid no ‘silver bullet’ for Ukraine

  • Kyiv has been heavily reliant on billions of dollars of US military aid in its war with Russia following Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022

WASHINGTON, United States: The United States is the first to acknowledge that its long-awaited $61 billion aid package for Ukraine is not a "silver bullet."

As weapons and ammunition are rushed to the country, other issues such as manpower shortages in Kyiv's struggling military have come to the fore.

Meanwhile, the monthslong delay in passing the aid package — caused by wrangling among US lawmakers — has further weakened Ukraine's position on the battleground, according to analysts.

President Joe Biden, who quickly signed the law Wednesday after it passed Congress, said the bill "should have gotten there sooner."

Jake Sullivan, his National Security Advisor, said the aid package "will make a difference," but warned "there is no silver bullet in this conflict."

"One capability is not going to be the ultimate solution," Sullivan told a White House briefing, though he added "Ukraine's position in this conflict will improve and we believe that Ukraine can and will win."

Kyiv has been heavily reliant on billions of dollars of US military aid in its war with Russia following Moscow's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

But in recent months Ukrainian forces — outgunned and outmanned — have struggled to hold back Russian troops.

And in the United States — Ukraine's largest provider of military assistance — a bogged-down Congress had not approved large-scale funding for Kyiv since December 2022 before the new package was passed this week.

It contains nearly $14 billion to train, equip and finance the needs of the Ukrainian army.

Manpower shortage

Garret Martin, of the American University School of International Service in Washington, said the delay by US lawmakers in passing the aid package "had a cost."

"The aid can shore up Ukraine but it's not a magic wand that could fix all the challenges they face," Martin said.

"What the package cannot do is deal with the shortage of manpower," he added.

Biden and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky have discussed the manpower issue, according to the White House.

In April, Kyiv reduced the minimum age for military conscription from 27 to 25, making thousands more men eligible for the draft.

And this week, it stopped issuing new passports abroad to military-aged Ukrainian men, as part of measures to push them to return home and fight.

Max Bergmann, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that the impact of American aid would depend on European efforts.

"European nations need to ramp up (weapons) production now," Bergmann said.

"Europe's goal should be to put itself in a position to potentially fill a future gap left by the United States should it not pass another supplemental."

Bergmann said that Ukraine should use 2024 to "hold the line, exhaust and attrit Russian forces," with next year possibly presenting an opportunity for a Kyiv offensive.


Germany blames Russia for cyberattack on air safety, election interference

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Germany blames Russia for cyberattack on air safety, election interference

  • “We have been able to clearly identify the handwriting behind it and prove Moscow’s responsibility,” said the spokesman
  • “Our intelligence findings prove that the Russian military intelligence service GRU bears responsibility for this attack“

BERLIN: Germany on Friday accused Russia of a cyberattack targeting its air traffic control and spreading disinformation ahead of February’s general election, charges dismissed by Russia as “absurd” and “baseless.”
A German foreign ministry spokesman said security services had proof that hacker groups run by Russia’s military intelligence service GRU were responsible for the attack and influence operations.
“Based on comprehensive analysis by the German intelligence services, we have been able to clearly identify the handwriting behind it and prove Moscow’s responsibility,” said the spokesman.
“We can now clearly attribute the cyberattack against German Air Safety in August 2024 to the hacker collective APT28, also known as Fancy Bear,” he told a regular press briefing.
“Our intelligence findings prove that the Russian military intelligence service GRU bears responsibility for this attack,” added the spokesman.
He also said Russia had sought to influence February’s parliamentary election, which was won by the conservatives of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, with the far-right AfD scoring its best-ever result in second place.
“Second, we can now state definitively that Russia, through the Storm 1516 campaign, sought to influence and destabilize the most recent federal election,” he added at a press conference.
The spokesman said a GRU-supported Moscow think tank and other groups had spread artificially generated or deepfake images and other content, and that the goal was to divide society and “undermine trust in democratic institutions.”
The Russian embassy in Berlin said in a statement sent to AFP that it “categorically rejected” that Russia was behind any of the activity.
“The accusations of Russian state structures’ involvement in these incidents and in the activities of hacker groups in general are baseless, unfounded and absurd,” the statement said.
According to security sources, much of the material spread by the Storm 1516 campaign involved spurious claims about Merz and other prominent politicians such as former foreign minister Annalena Baerbock and former vice chancellor Robert Habeck, both prominent Greens party members.
AFP’s German Fact Check service debunked two of the other claims in the campaign aimed at subverting trust in elections; namely that the AfD had been left off ballots in the city of Leipzig and that votes for the party in Hamburg were destroyed before they could be counted.

- ‘Pay a price’ -

The foreign ministry spokesman said Germany had “absolutely solid proof” that Russia was behind the operations but added that he could not go into detail because this would involve discussing the work of German intelligence services.
The head of the BfV domestic intelligence agency Sinan Selen said in a statement that “the ‘Storm-1516’ campaign shows in a very concrete way how our democratic order is being attacked.”
“This disinformation ecosystem includes pro-Russian influencers with a wide reach, conspiracy theories and right-wing extremist circles,” Selen said.
The German foreign ministry spokesman warned that Berlin would take “a series of countermeasures to make Russia pay a price for its hybrid actions, in close coordination with our European partners.”
Germany would support “new individual sanctions against hybrid actors on a European level,” he said, without saying who they were.
He added that from January, EU countries would “monitor cross-border travel by Russian diplomats within the Schengen Area. The aim is to facilitate better information exchange and minimize intelligence risks.”
Governments across Europe are on high alert over alleged Russian espionage, drone surveillance and sabotage activities, as well as cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.
Germany has been Ukraine’s second-biggest supplier of aid since Russia launched its 2022 full-scale invasion and has accused Moscow of being behind drone flights near several European airports in recent months.