MULTAN: The outcome of this week’s general election will no doubt be shaped by political battles in the southern regions of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province and its political heartland, analysts said, with the winner in the area playing a pivotal role in the formation of the government at the center and the province.
South Punjab comprises three divisions, Multan, Dera Ghazi Khan and Bahawalpur, and has 13 districts. For decades, this region in Punjab has seen fierce electoral battles between landed families like the Qureshis, Gilanis, Khosas, Nawanis, Dogars, Legharis, Khars and Jakhars.
Historically, the 46 national and 93 provincial assembly seats in South Punjab represent over 32 percent of Punjab’s population and are crucial in making or breaking governments. This Feb. 8, 21.89 million registered voters in South Punjab are expected to decide who wins this crucial region and could in turn rule the country.
“South Punjab’s role has always been important in the formation of governments at the center and Punjab, and much of the politics here revolves around electables,” Shakeel Anjum, a Multan-based journalist and analyst, told Arab News, referring to politicians with personal clout in their communities and a sizable vote bank.
Traditionally, he added, ahead of elections most influential politicians in South Punjab joined the party expected to come into power. For example, in 2018, many electables joined the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party of Imran Khan, which went on to form the government at the center.
“In the February 8 elections [this year], it seems the PML-N is the king’s party and the environment is being made conducive for it [to win the polls],” Anjum added.
“POLITICAL HEAVYWEIGHTS”
Winning big in South Punjab will put the PML-N in a very strong position, analysts and politicians said, as past election results show the party that wins this region often forms the government both at the center and in the province.
In 2018, Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won 26 National Assembly seats in South Punjab, forming the central and provincial governments, while its rival, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party, won 11 seats as compared to 34 in the 2013 elections. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) won 23 seats in South Punjab in 2008 and formed the government at the center, but could win only four seats from here in the 2018 national polls, when it was effectively wiped out as a national-level party and relegated to its traditional strongholds in Sindh province.
PML-N’s Punjab General Secretary Sardar Awais Ahmad Khan Leghari said he was optimistic about his party’s prospects in South Punjab this election cycle as well.
“People know the PML-N is the only party that delivers on its promises related to development projects,” he said. “Therefore, we are expecting a win in South Punjab.”
The PPP also aims to win back its lost glory.
The party’s Bahawalpur Division president, Engineer Javaid Akbar Dhillon, estimated the PPP would win more than 15 National Assembly and 30 provincial assembly seats from South Punjab in this election.
“Our position is very strong in Multan, Muzaffargarh and Rahim Yar Khan while we will also win seats from Layyah and Kot Addu,” he told Arab News.
“Some electable and political heavyweights of South Punjab are contesting for national and provincial assembly seats on the PPP ticket and we hope they will win their respective constituencies.”
“TOUGH COMPETITION”
But like elsewhere in Punjab, the real competition will be between the PML-N and candidates backed up ex-PM Khan’s PTI.
Moeen Riaz Qureshi, PTI president in the area, said the party was leading the election race in all three divisions of South Punjab despite what he described as a state-backed crackdown against the party and the arrests of its leaders and supporters.
“PTI has fielded candidates on all national and provincial seats in South Punjab and people are responding positively to our campaign,” he told Arab News. “We are hopeful to get a lead in South Punjab like we did in the last elections.”
Dr. Shahzad Ali, the director of media studies at the Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan, said the PML-N was trying to create the perception that its victory was a foregone conclusion but in reality his party would still face a tough competition against the rival PTI party in South Punjab.
“So maybe in some of the constituencies, located in the countryside of South Punjab, the PML-N will be able to win certain seats,” he said. “But in urban areas, there is going to be a tough competition despite one of the political parties, that is the PTI, being sidelined.”
Anjum the analyst said many independent candidates from South Punjab would also be important in the ultimate game of numbers.
“It seems as if whatever government comes up, the independents will have an important role in it,” he said, “and they will play a decisive role in forming the government.”
In South Punjab, tough election contests that could decide who wins Pakistan
https://arab.news/jzw22
In South Punjab, tough election contests that could decide who wins Pakistan
- Past election results show party that wins South Punjab often forms government both at center and in Punjab
- For decades, region has seen electoral battles between clans like Qureshis, Gilanis, Legharis, Khosas, Khars
Women traders face ruin as years of work turn to ash in deadly plaza inferno
- Traders estimate losses of over $53 million, more than 100 women workers, dozens of women-led businesses wiped out in Gul Plaza fire
- In Pakistan, where women run a fraction of formal enterprises, disasters like Gul Plaza fire can erase decades of efforts overnight
KARACHI: Yasmeen Bano stood on the edge of MA Jinnah Road, staring at the blackened remains of Gul Plaza, a shopping center that for decades had been a gateway to financial independence for small traders in Pakistan’s commercial capital.
For Bano, a 55-year-old businesswoman, the charred structure represents far more than a shopping mall. It held the labor of two decades, the savings of a lifetime and the fragile economic security of her family, all wiped out in a deadly fire that tore through the multi-story plaza last week.
Bano began her ladies’ undergarments business in the mid-2000s, gradually expanding to own three shops in the bustling market, a rare achievement in a country where women face steep barriers to entrepreneurship.
That progress vanished in hours as a blaze broke out on Jan. 17, trapping workers and shoppers inside and burning for more than 24 hours before being brought under control. Recovery operations are still underway as teams sift through unstable debris at the site, which housed over 1,200 shops.
“For 20 years, we worked day and night to build this business,” Bano told Arab News, standing near the wreckage. “I had three shops above, which were my own. All of them have been destroyed.”
Like many traders at Gul Plaza, she had restocked heavily ahead of the wedding season and the holy fasting month of Ramadan starting next month, when sales typically peak. Her inventory, worth around Rs15 million ($53,800), was entirely destroyed.
“All the season’s goods came on loan. Everything is finished,” she said. “Now we have nothing [left], we are insolvent financially.”
FRAGILE FOOTHOLD ERASED
Women entrepreneurs were among the hardest hit by the blaze, traders say. Many had invested personal savings, borrowed informally or relied on family credit to run small businesses that served as their households’ sole source of income.
In Pakistan, women own or lead only a small share of businesses. According to the World Bank and government data, fewer than 5 percent of women participate in formal entrepreneurship, with most operating in the informal sector, where access to insurance, credit protection and safety nets is minimal. In cities like Karachi, markets such as Gul Plaza have long offered women one of the few accessible entry points into commerce.
That precarious foothold has now collapsed.
Kainat Memon, an 18-year-old medical student, ran an undergarments shop with her widowed mother. Both were present when the fire broke out in the building, which housed around 1,200 shops selling garments, luggage, crockery and household goods.
“It was time to close the shop. Everyone was closing their shops... Suddenly there was a loud noise. People started saying that there is a fire,” she recalled.
“We were crying and our eyes were burning. We were having a hard time talking.”
The losses are devastating.
“We have incurred a loss of Rs7–8 million ($28,600) because we had stocked up. Ramadan was coming,” Memon said. “The goods are all burnt. We had invested all our savings. Now we are jobless. All our business is gone.”
For women traders, the losses extended beyond their own families. Many employed other women, often from low-income households, who depended on daily wages or monthly salaries.
“From the basement to the fourth floor, women work here. There are more than a hundred women working here,” said Aisha Farrukh, a 37-year-old trader whose family also lost its business in the blaze.
“Our workers are jobless. We can’t do anything for them now.”
Karachi has a long history of deadly fires in markets and factories, often linked to faulty wiring, overcrowding, illegal construction and weak enforcement of safety regulations. Police have said the Gul Plaza fire may have been triggered by a short circuit, though investigations are ongoing.
Farrukh questioned how quickly the fire spread through the building, saying safety measures were inadequate.
“The government would have to compensate for the financial losses but at this moment, it is difficult to understand how in 10 minutes the entire Gul Plaza turned to ash,” she said.
“In front of our eyes, our 20 years of hard work turned to ash in under 20 minutes.”
LONG ROAD BACK
The scale of the losses has pushed many traders into insolvency. Tanveer Pasta, president of the Gul Plaza Market Association, said all shops in the plaza were destroyed, estimating total losses at up to Rs15 billion ($53.6 million).
“There were big importers sitting here,” he said. “Just three days before this fire, 31 [shipping] containers were unloaded.”
For women like Bano, Memon and Farrukh, the fire has stripped away not just income but autonomy, turning business owners into debtors overnight in an economy already strained by inflation and slow growth.
The traders are now appealing for government support, warning that without assistance, many women-led enterprises will never reopen.
“We are ruined now,” Farrukh said. “Whether it happened accidentally or because of someone, we need a solution.”
