Iran-Pakistan flare-up rooted in restive borderlands, not Middle East strife — analysts

A man reads the frontpage of the Pakistani English-language newspaper Dawn displaying news on Iran's airstrike, in Islamabad on January 18, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 19 January 2024
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Iran-Pakistan flare-up rooted in restive borderlands, not Middle East strife — analysts

  • Experts say Tehran’s strikes motivated by rising concerns about threat of domestic militant violence after deadly Jan. 3 bombing
  • Neither government has sought to make link to Gaza war or attacks carried out by network of Arab militias allied to Iran

DUBAI/ISLAMABAD: An Iranian strike on Pakistan this week that drew a rapid military riposte and raised fears of greater regional turmoil was driven by Iran’s efforts to reinforce its internal security rather than its ambitions for the Middle East, according to three Iranian officials, one Iranian insider and an analyst. 
Both the heavily-armed neighbors, oftentimes at odds over instability on their frontier, appear to want to try to contain the strains resulting from the highest-profile cross-border intrusions in recent years, two analysts and two of the officials said. 
Iran sent shockwaves around the region on Tuesday with a missile strike against what it described as hard-line militants in southwest Pakistan. Two days later, Pakistan in retaliation attacked what it said were separatist militants in Iran — the first air strike on Iranian soil since the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. 
Tuesday’s strike was one of Iran’s toughest cross-border assaults on the militant Jaish Al-Adl group in Pakistan, which it says has links to Daesh. Many of Jaish’s members previously belonged to a now-defunct militant group known as Jundallah that had pledged allegiance to Daesh.
The move deepened worries about Middle East instability that have spread since the Israel-Hamas war erupted in October. Iran-allied militias from Yemen to Lebanon have launched strikes on US and Israeli targets, including on Red Sea shipping, in sympathy with Gaza’s Palestinians.
It also came a day after Iran launched attacks in Iraq and Syria, which it said targeted Israeli espionage and Daesh operations, respectively.
But the tit-for-tat blows between Iran and Pakistan occurred far from that war zone, in remote borderlands where separatist groups and religiously motivated militants have long carried out attacks on government targets, with officials in Pakistan and Iran often accusing each other of complicity in the bloodshed.
Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group, an international risk consultancy, said Tehran’s strikes were motivated in large part by Iran’s rising concerns about the threat of domestic militant violence in the wake of a deadly Jan. 3 bombing claimed by Daesh.
“There’s a lot of domestic pressure to ‘do something,’ and the leadership is responding to that pressure,” he said.
Spokespeople for the Iranian and Pakistani foreign ministries could not immediately be reached for comment.
 ‘CRUSHING RESPONSE’
Pakistan recalled its ambassador from Iran in protest at Tuesday’s attack. For its part, Tehran strongly condemned Pakistan’s strikes on Thursday, saying civilians were killed, and summoned Pakistan’s most senior diplomat in Iran to give an explanation.
But in their statements, neither government sought to make a link to the Gaza war or to attacks carried out in support of Palestinians by a network of Arab militias allied to Iran from the Mediterranean to the Gulf.
In a public statement on Thursday, the foreign ministry in Tehran said: “Iran considers the security of its people and its territorial integrity as a red line” and expects “friendly and brotherly” Pakistan to prevent armed militant bases on its soil.
For Iran, the trigger for the flare-up was a devastating bombing on Jan. 3 that killed nearly 100 people at a ceremony in the southeastern city of Kerman to commemorate commander Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by a US drone in 2020.
Soleimani, architect of Iran’s drive to extend its influence across the Middle East, was a hero to supporters of the hard-line establishment. Tehran publicly vowed revenge against Daesh, the ultra-hard-line militant group that claimed responsibility for the bombing.
An Iranian insider close to the country’s ruling clerics described the Kerman bombing as “an embarrassment for the leadership” that had shown Iranian security to be vulnerable.
Tuesday’s strike was aimed at demonstrating the security organizations’ capabilities amid concern among Iranians about a lack of security in the country, the Iranian insider said.
“Such terrorist attacks will get a crushing response from Iran,” the insider said.
Iran has also arrested dozens of people linked to Daesh.
On Tuesday, Iranian missiles struck two bases of the group Jaish Al-Adl (or the Army of Justice) in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Balochistan, which borders Iran. Iran accuses the group of attacks inside its borders, particularly on the powerful Revolution Guards Corp.
A senior Iranian security official told Reuters that Iran had provided Pakistan with evidence that Jaish Al-Adl was involved in the Kerman attack, coordinating its logistics, and had asked Pakistan to act against it. Iran had obtained evidence that members of the group were among a number of militants planning further attacks in Iran, he said.
“We have warned everyone that any action against our nation, our national security will not go unanswered,” the official added, speaking on condition of anonymity due to sensitivity of the matter.
IRAN ‘LOST PATIENCE’
Iran has been pressing Islamabad for years to address the presence of militants near its border, Brew said. The missile strikes were a sign that Tehran has lost patience, he said.
To be sure, Iran continues to see its role and influence in the Middle East as a central to its security goals.
Brew said that Iran’s strike on Pakistan was also intended to signal its resolve, to both enemies and allies, to defend itself in the context of the regional crisis over Gaza.
Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, a Washington-based think tank, said bilateral tension on border security was a longstanding problem for Iran and Pakistan.
De-escalation would be difficult in the immediate term, “given the high tensions and temperatures at play,” he said.
Neither country appears poised for conflict, however. In public statements, both countries have observed their attacks were not aimed at each other’s nationals, and signalled they don’t want escalation.
Kugelman said both countries might welcome bilateral dialogue and potential third party mediation from a country like China, which has good relations and leverage with both countries.
 “Diplomacy will be critical from here on out,” he said.


‘Voice for the Voiceless’: Islamabad Police signs MoU to set up welfare service for stray animals

Updated 6 sec ago
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‘Voice for the Voiceless’: Islamabad Police signs MoU to set up welfare service for stray animals

  • Police Animal Welfare Services will ensure treatment and rehabilitation of abandoned, injured and sick animals
  • The project will also include a shelter home, pet café and a hotel to help the residents of the city who plan to travel

ISLAMABAD: In a unique development for Pakistan, Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) Police on Monday announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with an animal rescue organization to establish Police Animal Welfare Services (PAWS) aimed at ensuring the timely treatment and rehabilitation of abandoned, injured and sick animals.

The development follows the decision taken by Inspector General of Police Syed Ali Nasir Rizvi to start an initiative called the Voice for the Voiceless to help lost and stray animals. Islamabad has faced issues with stray dogs and cats, and there has been controversy surrounding the methods used to manage them, particularly the practice of culling by the Capital Development Authority (CDA).

Residents of the city also spot wildlife such as wild boars, leopards and monkeys occasionally due to their proximity with Margalla Hills, which boast thick vegetation and a diverse ecosystem.

The ICT Police mentioned the MoU signing with the JFK Animal Rescue and Shelter Organization in its statement to develop its capacity to help these creatures.

“The project includes establishment of a shelter home, a pet cafe, and a pet hotel for these animals, where citizens who travel or go on long journeys can avail these facilities for their pet where the best care of these animals will be ensured through professional caretakers,” the statement said.

“Moreover, this center will be built on most modern lines and international standards,” it continued. “Under PAWS, a K-9 mission will also be organized for the K-9 unit dogs of Islamabad Police, where, after retirement, these dogs will be handed over to citizens for complete care. Further assistance will be sought from other animal welfare organizations as needed.”

Rizvi said on the occasion that the initiative would echo the message of love and care for animals, as they were important to the environment, nature and human life.

He also noted that animals retiring after serving a force should not be put down, adding their complete care should be ensured.

Police forces around the world often engage in social responsibility ventures, though the nature and extent of these activities can vary widely depending on the country, local policies and community needs.


Pakistani politicians acknowledge Dubai properties revealed in data leak, say all assets duly declared

Updated 16 min 27 sec ago
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Pakistani politicians acknowledge Dubai properties revealed in data leak, say all assets duly declared

  • Dubai Unlocked investigative project has revealed Pakistanis own residential properties worth $11 billion in Dubai 
  • UAE working in recent years to tighten legislation, increase cooperation with foreign law enforcement on extradition

ISLAMABAD: Top Pakistani politicians have dismissed a new leak of records that has revealed residential properties worth around $11 billion owned by the country’s political, military and business elite in Dubai, saying all mentioned assets had been legally declared.

Dubai Unlocked, an investigative project involving more than 70 media outlets around the globe, has revealed the ownership of properties in the Emirate of prominent global figures, including alleged money launderers and drug lords, political figures accused of corruption and their associates, and businessmen sanctioned for financing terrorism, among others.

The data spans 2020 and 2022 and only includes residential properties.

Pakistanis listed in leaks include President Asif Ali Zardari’s three children, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s son Hussain Nawaz Sharif, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s wife, Sindh provincial minister Sharjeel Memon and family members, Senator Faisal Vawda, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf lawmaker Sher Afzal Marwat, and half a dozen lawmakers from the Sindh and Balochistan assemblies.

The Pakistani list also features the late Gen (retired) Pervez Musharraf, former prime minister Shaukat Aziz, former army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa’s son, and more than a dozen retired army generals as well as a police chief, an ambassador and a scientist, all of whom owned properties either directly or through their spouses and children.

Pakistani politicians and others were last named in the 2016 Panama Papers, leaked documents that showed how the rich exploit secretive offshore tax regimes.

“What is the new thing here,” Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said on X, dismissing the leaks and saying all those named in the data were already known to have properties abroad.

Explaining his position on the issue, Pakistan’s interior minister Mohsin Naqvi said the Dubai property bought in his wife’s name in 2017 was fully declared and listed in tax returns.

“It was also declared in returns submitted to the Election Commission as caretaker CM [chief minister] of Punjab,” he said in an X post. “The property was sold a year ago, and a new property was purchased recently with the proceeds.”

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) lawmaker and ex-PM Imran Khan aide, Sher Afzal Marwat, admitted he owned an apartment in Dubai, but had declared it with authorities in Pakistan, including the Federal Board of Revenue and the Election Commission of Pakistan.

“It can be confirmed with both the FBR and as well as ECP,” he said.

President Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party also said the properties of its leaders in Dubai had been duly declared in tax returns.

The property records at the heart of the Dubai Unlocked project come from multiple data leaks, mostly from the Dubai Land Department, as well as publicly owned utility companies. Taken together, the data provides a detailed overview of hundreds of thousands of properties in Dubai and information about their ownership or usage.

The data was obtained by the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS), a non-profit organization based in Washington that researches international crime and conflict. It was then shared with Norwegian financial outlet E24 and the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), which coordinated an investigative project with dozens of media outlets from around the world.

The UAE was dealt a major reputational blow in March 2022 when it was flagged by global watchdog, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), for “deficiencies” in its systems to combat money laundering and terror financing.

The move, which threatened to tarnish Dubai’s reputation as a premier center of finance, sparked a concerted effort by UAE authorities to tighten legislation and increase cooperation with foreign law enforcement on extradition.

 


US pledges increasing communication on terrorism, technical assistance for Pakistan’s border security

Updated 43 min 13 sec ago
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US pledges increasing communication on terrorism, technical assistance for Pakistan’s border security

  • The State Department says the US agreed to help Pakistan with investigations related to IED attacks
  • It refuses to answer question about a recent drone attack in Pakistan that killed at least four villagers

ISLAMABAD: The United States said on Monday it had promised to provide technical assistance to Pakistan along its western border to deal with the threat of militant violence in the recent round of Counterterrorism Dialogue between the two countries held earlier this month.

The dialogue was initiated after the United States moved against the Taliban administration in Afghanistan after the September 11, 2001, attacks, aiming to provide a bilateral forum to both countries to address mutual concerns over militant violence.

The most recent phase of the dialogue took place on May 10 where Pakistan’s additional foreign secretary for the United Nations Syed Haider Shah co-chaired the meeting with US State Department Coordinator for Counterterrorism Elizabeth Richards.

“We confirmed with Pakistan today our bilateral intention to increase our capacity to meet emerging threats, specifically to increase communication on terrorism – specifically terrorism trends and movements of concern – in a way that is not just actionable within Pakistan but also an area that is actionable between our two countries,” State Department’s Principal Deputy Spokesperson Vedant Patel said during a media briefing.

“We also agreed about preventing and deterring terrorist groups and the work that can be done in that place, such as counter-IED [improvised explosive device] investigations, technical assistance at Pakistan’s western border, and other issues.”

The latest round of the Counterterrorism Dialogue was held against the backdrop of a surge in militant attacks in Pakistan by a proscribed network, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), whose leadership is reportedly based in neighboring Afghanistan.

Officials in Islamabad have frequently complained in recent months the Afghan interim administration in Kabul is not doing enough to clamp down on TTP militants and prevent them from launching attacks on Pakistani security forces and civilians.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan was contingent upon several guarantees from the Taliban, one of which was that the Taliban would not allow any group or individual to use Afghan soil to threaten the security of the United States and its allies.

The agreement was signed in February 2020 in Doha, Qatar, and included commitments by the Taliban to sever ties with militant organizations like Al Qaeda.

The State Department official was also asked about a drone attack in South Waziristan in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province this week that killed at least four villagers. However, he did not answer the question.

“I don’t have anything for you on that,” he said. “I’d refer you to my colleagues at the Pentagon.”


Army major killed in gunfight with militants in Pakistan’s southwest

Updated 15 May 2024
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Army major killed in gunfight with militants in Pakistan’s southwest

  • The intelligence-based operation was conducted in Zhob district of Pakistan’s restive Balochistan province
  • Balochistan is the site of a low-level insurgency by separatists who have recently carried out multiple attacks

ISLAMABAD: An army major and three militants were killed in a gunfight in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province, the Pakistani military said on Tuesday.

The exchange of fire occurred during an intelligence-based operation in Sambaza area of Balochistan’s Zhob district, according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the military’s media wing.

Security forces effectively engaged the militants and killed three of them, seizing weapons, ammunition and explosives from the scene.

“During the intense exchange of fire, leading his troops from the front, Major Babar Khan (age: 33 years, resident of District Mianwali) having fought gallantly, paid the ultimate sacrifice and embraced Shahadat,” the ISPR said in a statement.

“Sanitization operation is being conducted to eliminate any other terrorist present in the area.”

Balochistan, which borders Afghanistan, is the site of a low-level insurgency by separatists, who have recently carried out a number of attacks in the region.

In one of the major attacks, gunmen last month killed nine people, who hailed from the eastern Punjab province, after abducting them from a bus on a highway near the Noshki district. The outlawed Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) group claimed responsibility for the attack.

Although the government says it has quelled militancy, violence by various groups has persisted in the region.


Islamabad rejects ‘unhealthy’ remarks by Indian politicians about Pakistan’s nuclear capability, Kashmir

Updated 14 May 2024
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Islamabad rejects ‘unhealthy’ remarks by Indian politicians about Pakistan’s nuclear capability, Kashmir

  • Pakistan has been key topic of Indian election speeches by PM Narendra Modi, top leaders of his ruling BJP party
  • Foreign Office urges Indian politicians to stop dragging Pakistan into their domestic politics for ‘electoral gains’

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s foreign office on Tuesday rejected “baseless” and “unhealthy” remarks by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other members of his cabinet regarding Pakistan’s nuclear program, Kashmir dispute and other regional issues, which came during campaigning for ongoing elections in India.

Pakistan has been a key topic of speeches by Indian leaders during campaign rallies, with Modi and top leaders from his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) making strong statements about their South Asian neighbor.

At an election rally in Bihar this week, Modi indirectly referred to National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah’s remarks about Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and said he would make Pakistan “wear bangles.”

Noting the “alarming” surge in anti-Pakistan rhetoric, Pakistan’s Foreign Office said it rejected the “irresponsible statements” by Indian leaders about the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, counter-terrorism efforts, bilateral relations and Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities.

“Regrettably, these statements reflect an unhealthy and entrenched obsession with Pakistan and reveal a deliberate intent to exploit hyper-nationalism for electoral gains. These also signify a desperate attempt to deflect attention from mounting domestic and international criticism,” Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, a Pakistani foreign office spokesperson, said in a statement.

“The bravado and jingoism exhibited by Indian leaders expose a reckless and extremist mindset. This mindset calls into question India’s capacity to be a responsible steward of its strategic capability. On the other hand, the purpose of Pakistan’s strategic capability is to safeguard its sovereignty and defend its territorial integrity.”

Baloch noted that Pakistan had clearly demonstrated its resolve to defend itself in the past and would not “hesitate to do so in the future should the Indian side choose to embark on a misadventure.”

About Indian Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s claim that Azad Kashmir was part of India, she said Jammu and Kashmir was an internationally-recognized disputed territory and the relevant UN Security Council resolutions clearly mandated a plebiscite in the territory for its final determination.

“No amount of inflated Indian statements can change this reality,” Baloch said. “India should, therefore, focus on implementing these resolutions instead of indulging in fantasies of grandeur.”

The Himalayan territory of Kashmir has been divided between India and Pakistan since their independence from Britain in 1947, with both countries ruling part of the territory but claiming it in full.

The western portion of the larger Kashmir region is administered by Pakistan as a nominally self-governing entity, while India rules the southern portion as a union territory.

Baloch urged Indian politicians to stop dragging Pakistan into their domestic politics for “electoral gains” and to handle sensitive strategic matters with “utmost caution.”

“We call upon the international community to take note of Indian leadership’s belligerent rhetoric, which poses a grave threat to regional peace and stability,” she said.

“The vision of peace, progress, and prosperity in South Asia can only be realized through the peaceful resolution of all outstanding disputes, including Jammu and Kashmir, and a shift from confrontation to cooperation.”