QUETTA: A key political party in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province, which emerged on the country’s tumultuous political landscape in March 2018, is struggling for survival, analysts noted this week, with a majority of its members shifting to mainstream factions ahead of the upcoming polls in February. 

The Balochistan Awami Party (BAP), which many see as a “pro-state” faction, achieved notable successes in Pakistan’s political arena where even well-followed parties sometimes struggle for decades to gain power. It managed to occupy top provincial positions along with influential roles of the Senate chairman and the country’s interim interior minister. Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, a BAP founder, exemplifies the party’s reach in the echelons of power at the federal level. 

BAP was established with the stated objective of amplifying the voice of Balochistan’s residents and shaping their destiny within the province rather than Islamabad. Following the 2018 general elections, the party managed to form the provincial government with 24 elected members and provided support to former prime minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party at the federal level with its four National Assembly seats. 

Speaking to Arab News, Raza Rumi, a senior journalist and political analyst, described BAP as a “proxy of the country’s powerful security establishment” that was granted significant influence in the power matrix of the country following the last general elections. 

“Five years down the road, the goals have shifted to create a new political dispensation after the February 2024 polls in which a different set of players would fulfill the [establishment’s] objectives,” Rumi said. 

“Sadly, BAP didn’t enjoy the legitimacy which was required in Balochistan to negotiate with separatist groups and create a harmonious federation-level dialogue,” he continued. “Its efforts were limited and it was a political cover for the [state’s] high-handed approach to crush separatism in the troubled province.” 

Balochistan shares a porous border with Iran and Afghanistan and has been the scene of a low-level insurgency by armed Baloch separatist groups for nearly two decades who claim to be fighting against what they see as unfair exploitation of the province’s wealth by the federation. The Pakistani state denies it. 

Asked if the party managed to build a counternarrative against the Baloch nationalist groups, Rumi said the current caretaker prime minister did his best to make that happen, though his efforts did not yield the desired results. 

“The leadership of the nationalist movement in Balochistan has shifted from the traditional sardars [or tribal chiefs] to a robust middle-class,” he said. “One manifestation of this trend is the women’s march in Islamabad now camped outside the National Press Club.” 

Hundreds of Baloch activists arrived in Pakistan federal capital last month after covering over 1,600 kilometers from Turbat district in the southwestern province to protest what they say are “enforced disappearances” and “genocide” of their ethnic community. 

Led by a female medical professional, Dr. Mahrang Baloch, the protest was triggered by the killing of a 24-year-old resident of Balochistan while he was in the custody of the provincial counterterrorism department. 

The protesters complained of arbitrary arrests and police harassment upon reaching Islamabad and were accused of being “miscreants” by the caretaker prime minister and his administration. 

Asked about the party’s current situation, Senator Kahuda Babar Baloch, the central BAP spokesman, said the party was not formed “overnight” to implement some casual decision. He said several senior political personalities, such as the current prime minister and Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani, envisaged it to raise a voice for Balochistan’s rights. 

“In recent criticism against our party, people have been saying that BAP will soon disappear from the political arena,” he said. “However, we are optimistic that we will form the next government in the province once again since our party candidates are going to contest elections from all provincial districts.” 

He dismissed the recent defections from the party, including the decision of former caretaker interior minister Sarfraz Ahmed Bugti, who recently joined the Pakistan People Party. 

However, Saleem Shahid, a senior journalist, said BAP emerged with a slogan to address all provincial issues within Balochistan, adding it was ironic that during the party’s tenure, all major decisions related to the problems faced by Baloch nationals were announced from Islamabad. 

“Majority of the politicians in BAP joined the party to meet their personal interests,” he said. “Their interests are now aligned with mainstream parties in the country.” 

Meanwhile, another journalist Irfan Saeed told Arab News that political wheeling-dealing would continue in Balochistan, adding that the same tendency also led to the creation of the BAP party. 

“The February 8 polls are an opportunity for the people of Balochistan to elect their true representatives,” he said. “Unfortunately, Balochistan is deprived of ideological politics which allows influential politicians to rule over the masses one after another.”