Why Benjamin Netanyahu’s political fate is tightly entwined with the war in Gaza

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Many Israelis believe a failure of leadership by Benjamin Netanyahu resulted in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that set off the latest phase of violence in Gaza. (AP)
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Smoke rises following an Israeli bombardment in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel on Monday, on Dec. 11, 2023. (AP)
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Updated 16 December 2023
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Why Benjamin Netanyahu’s political fate is tightly entwined with the war in Gaza

  • With poll ratings down and US support on the wane, the Israeli prime minister could be running out of political road
  • Experts say Netanyahu’s loss of public support stems from the manner in which he has managed the conflict with Hamas

LONDON: Hopes for a peaceful resolution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas are contingent upon a change of leadership at the top of the Knesset, as it seems incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is convinced peace is not an option.

That, at least, is the view of several experts, who believe Netanyahu’s obsession with seeing the decades-old conflict between Israel and the Palestinians as something that can only be managed, not brought to an end, has impeded all other alternatives.

“Netanyahu is irrelevant to peace,” Yossi Mekelberg, professor of international relations and associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House in London, told Arab News.




Smoke rises following an Israeli bombardment in the Gaza Strip, as seen from southern Israel on Monday, on Dec. 11, 2023. (AP)

Mekelberg is of the view that Israel should be “looking for a future leadership,” adding that, despite not being in the “actioning peace” phase of the conflict, this would have to “start soon, if we don’t want another prolonged period of low intensity war.”

Despite having developed a reputation for survival and rebirth over his 20-plus years at the top of Israeli politics, Netanyahu’s poll numbers indicate his ouster in the near term is now a very real possibility.

Given the corruption charges awaiting him once he is stripped of the legal immunity afforded by high office, the stakes are particularly high.

A recent report by The Wall Street Journal found that support among Israelis for Netanyahu to remain in office for the long haul stands at just 18 percent, with 29 percent demanding he leave now and 47 percent seeing no place for him in government after the war ends.

Interviewed by The New Yorker, Dahlia Scheindlin, a political scientist and expert on Israeli public opinion, said that Netanyahu’s popularity had reached its nadir.

“By every possible indicator we have, and there have been lots of surveys done since Oct. 7, his popularity is abysmal,” said Scheindlin. “It’s the worst I’ve seen, certainly since 2009. I’d like to say ever, but I would have to check every single survey since the early 90s.”

That decline could have implications for how the war in Gaza is fought, with Netanyahu’s coalition, built in 2022, having lost its majority, dropping from 64 to 32 seats in parliament.




Israelis protest in Tel Aviv on December 15 following an announcement by the military that they had mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages being held in Gaza by Hamas militants. (REUTERS)

And yet, part of that loss of public support stems from the manner in which Netanyahu has sought to manage the conflict with Hamas, with many Israelis blaming his failure of leadership for the attack that set off the latest phase of violence.

Osama Al-Sharif, a Jordanian analyst and political columnist, believes Netanyahu’s political fate is tightly bound up with how the war has been fought.

“A more likely scenario over Israeli plans for the demilitarization of Gaza is that Netanyahu himself leaves the scene before Hamas does as the public begin to complain of the victory that may never come,” Al-Sharif told Arab News.

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And it is not just Israeli voters who seem to be running out of patience. US President Joe Biden’s support for Netanyahu and his hard-right government’s handling of the war have put him on the back foot as he moves into his own election year.

In off-camera remarks reported by Axios, Biden is reported to have said: “I think he (Netanyahu) has to change, and with this government. This government in Israel is making it very difficult for him to move.”

For Tobias Borck, senior research fellow for Middle East security at London’s Royal United Services Institute, Netanyahu has been hamstrung from the start by his own perception of the conflict with the Palestinians, with his “manageable conflict status quo” having proved a failed strategy.

“His intransigence on only viewing Palestine as a problem to be managed is what’s impeding the emergence of new ideas,” Borck told Arab News.




Palestinians look for survivors of the Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip in Rafah on Dec. 12, 2023. (AP)

It has created “this completely unsustainable middle thing: Neither one state, nor two states. It is not a solution to the problem. It is a confusion caused by the position Netanyahu adopted decades ago. That he has not come up with new ideas isn’t surprising.”

Following a seven-day truce, during which Hamas released several hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli jails, the IDF’s bombing campaign resumed, bringing the civilian death toll in Gaza to more than 18,000, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Against this backdrop, several unnamed sources who spoke to US media have said that Washington may try to force Israel’s hand and impose an end to the violence by Christmas. Borck said he has heard these rumors, but is not convinced of their veracity.

What has become quite clear is that “the American tone is shifting and it is turning from open-ended to wanting it over,” he said.

“You can trace the shift over the past two months. The shift is continuing, and the end point is inevitable: Ceasefire now. All that matters is what the Americans perceive as the Israelis having achieved their war aims. Remember there are Americans still held hostage.”




Palestinians salvage their belongings after an Israeli strike in Rafah, Gaza Strip, on  Dec. 13, 2023. (AP)

Borck does not expect Israelis to simply lay down their arms the moment Washington barks “ceasefire now.” Instead, he expects to see them challenge and condemn a perceived US interference.

However, Washington’s change of tone could actually be Netanyahu’s best opportunity for political survival. Reuters has cited recent polling that indicates overwhelming public support for the war, despite the civilian death toll in Gaza.

One former Israeli ambassador to Washington, Itamar Rabinovich, told The New York Times that Netanyahu was focused as much on a pending election as he was on the war.

“He’s looking at a potential election campaign a few months down the road. This is going to be his platform: ‘I am the leader who can stand up to Biden and prevent a Palestinian state’,” said Rabinovich.

Biden appears to be keen on disassociating backing for Israel from support for Netanyahu. Earlier in the week, the US president said Israel was losing international support because of its indiscriminate bombing.




US President Joe Biden, shown in this photo with Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin (right), has increasingly become impatient with the Israeli government's intransigence on the war in Gaza. (AFP/File)

Netanyahu, meanwhile, appears to be moving to identify himself in opposition to Biden, stating in recent remarks: “We are continuing until the end, there is no question. I say this even given the great pain and the international pressure. Nothing will stop us.”

Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London, told Arab News he was hesitant about writing Netanyahu off just yet, noting that, after 30 years of writing political obituaries, it is still too soon to say.

Echoing others who spoke to Arab News, he is also skeptical that a change in leadership at the top of Israeli politics would result in any meaningful change for Palestinians.

“It doesn’t really matter, because whoever replaces him is likely to continue with the same policies, namely using brutal force to suppress the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. Israel is unlucky in that at this critical time, it doesn’t have a (David) Ben-Gurion,” he said, referring to the founder and first prime minister of Israel.




Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet. (AFP)

It happens in the history of nations that often, at critical times, when one needs leaders who are brave, bold and able to think out of the box, they are not around.”

Bregman said that this has left Palestinians in an unenviable position, but suggested those supporting their cause would be best placed directing their energies “not so much to a long-term solution but to ensure that the Israelis, when this war is over, get out of the Gaza Strip.”

This meant also ensuring that if Israel wants a buffer zone separating it from Gaza, it will have to be built inside Israel, he said.

If, as some have suggested, the Israel Defense Forces is eying up the possibility of turning north Gaza into a buffer zone, Bregman said that any Israeli presence in the “tiny” Strip, even if only “temporary,” would only serve to “delay even further a long-term solution to the conflict.”

 


Israeli tanks push into Gaza’s Rafah, as battles rage in the north

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Israeli tanks push into Gaza’s Rafah, as battles rage in the north

Israel’s international allies and aid groups have repeatedly warned against a ground incursion into refugee-packed Rafah
The World Court said it would hold hearings on Thursday and Friday to discuss a request by South Africa seeking new emergency measures over the Rafah incursion

CAIRO: Israeli tanks forged deeper into eastern Rafah on Tuesday, reaching some residential districts of the southern border city where more than a million people had been sheltering, raising fears of yet further civilian casualties.
Israel’s international allies and aid groups have repeatedly warned against a ground incursion into refugee-packed Rafah, where Israel says four Hamas battalions are holed up.
The World Court, also known as the International Court of Justice (ICJ), said it would hold hearings on Thursday and Friday to discuss a request by South Africa seeking new emergency measures over the Rafah incursion, which Qatar says has stalled efforts to reach a ceasefire.
South Africa’s demand is part of a case it brought against Israel accusing it of violating the genocide convention in Gaza, and which Israel has called baseless. Israel will provide its views on the latest petition on Friday, the ICJ said.
Israel has vowed to press on into Rafah even without its allies’ support, saying the operation is necessary to root out remaining Hamas fighters.
“The tanks advanced this morning west of Salahuddin Road into the Brzail and Jneina neighborhoods. They are in the streets inside the built-up area and there are clashes,” one resident told Reuters via a chat app.
Palestinian residents of western Rafah later said they could see smoke billowing above the eastern neighborhoods and hear the sound of explosions following an Israeli bombardment of a cluster of houses.
Hamas’s armed wing said it had destroyed an Israeli troop carrier with an Al-Yassin 105 missile in the eastern Al-Salam district, killing some crew members and wounding others.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) declined to comment on the report.
In a round-up of its activities, the IDF said its forces had eliminated “several armed terrorist” cells in close-quarter fighting on the Gazan side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. In the east of the city, it said it had also destroyed militant cells and a launch post from where missiles were being fired at IDF troops.

’NOWHERE IS SAFE’
Israel issued evacuation orders for people to move from parts of eastern Rafah a week ago, with a second round of orders extending to further zones on Saturday.
They are moving to tracts of land such as Al-Mawasi, a sandy strip bordering the coast that aid agencies say lacks sanitary and other facilities to host an influx of displaced people.
UNRWA, the main United Nations aid agency in Gaza, estimates some 450,000 people have fled Rafah since May 6, warning “nowhere is safe,” in the enclave of 2.3 million.
The war has pushed much of Gaza’s population to the brink of famine, the UN says, and has devastated its medical facilities, where hospitals, if working at all, are running short of fuel to power generators and other essential supplies.
James Smith, a British emergency room doctor volunteering in hospitals in southern Gaza, said he had been told by a World Health Organization official that some emergency fuel had made it into the Gaza Strip, potentially enough for six days.
“Health is still being prioritized over other essential services, so when health looks a bit better it generally means other essential services are struggling,” he told Reuters via a WhatsApp voice note. “It’s a zero-sum game.”

FIERCE GUN BATTLES
Fighting across the Strip has intensified in recent days, including in the north, with the Israeli military heading back into areas where it had claimed to have dismantled Hamas months ago. Israel says the operations are to prevent Hamas, which runs Gaza, from rebuilding it military capacities.
The Palestinian death toll in the war has now surpassed 35,000, according to Gaza health officials, whose figures do not differentiate between civilians and fighters. It said that 82 Palestinians were killed in the past 24 hours, the highest death toll in a single day in many weeks.
Israel launched its Gaza operation following a devastating attack on Oct. 7 by Hamas-led gunmen who rampaged through Israeli communities near the enclave, killing some 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
In the Zeitoun neighborhood of Gaza City in the north, bulldozers demolished clusters of houses to make a new road for tanks to roll through into the eastern suburb.
In northern Gaza’s Jabalia, a sprawling refugee camp built for displaced Palestinians 75 years ago, residents said Israeli forces were trying to reach as deep as the camp’s local market under heavy tank shelling.
Residents said fierce gunbattles were continuing in Jabalia. Hamas and the armed wing of Islamic Jihad said they were fighting Israeli forces there.
“Many people are being trapped in their houses. We lost contact with some relatives after they were warned by the army in phone calls to leave and they refused,” Nasser, 57, a father of six, told Reuters, using an international phone card.
A strike on a house in Beit Lahiya, northern Gaza, killed seven people and wounded several others, medics said.
The IDF said it had killed dozens of Hamas fighters in Jabalia and dismantled a network of explosives, while in Zeitoun it located tunnel shafts and destroyed several rocket launchers.
With fighting intensifying, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani said ceasefire talks, mediated by his country and Egypt, were at a stalemate.

Palestinian truckers fear for safety after aid convoy for Gaza wrecked

Updated 26 min 39 sec ago
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Palestinian truckers fear for safety after aid convoy for Gaza wrecked

  • Footage circulated on social media showed at least one burning truck while other images showed trucks wrecked and stripped of their loads
  • “Yesterday there was coordination for 70 trucks of aid to go the Gaza Strip,” said Waseem Al-Jabari, Head of the Hebron Food Trade Association

HEBRON, West Bank: Palestinian hauliers said on Tuesday they feared for the security of aid convoys to Gaza, a day after Israeli protesters wrecked trucks carrying humanitarian supplies bound for the enclave, which is facing a severe hunger crisis.
Footage circulated on social media showed at least one burning truck while other images showed trucks wrecked and stripped of their loads, which lay strewn over the road near Tarqumiya checkpoint outside Hebron in the occupied West Bank.
“Yesterday there was coordination for 70 trucks of aid to go the Gaza Strip,” said Waseem Al-Jabari, Head of the Hebron Food Trade Association.
“While the trucks were uploaded with products at the crossing settlers attacked the trucks and they destroyed the products and set fire in trucks,” he said, saying Israeli soldiers had stood by as the attack took place.
Monday’s incident was claimed by a group calling itself Order 9, which said it had acted to stop supplies reaching Hamas and accusing the Israeli government of giving “gifts” to the Islamist group.
No comment was available from the Israeli military. The Israeli police said the incident, in which a number of people were arrested, was being investigated.
The violent protest drew condemnation from Washington, which has urged Israel to step up deliveries of aid into Gaza to alleviate a growing humanitarian crisis in the enclave, seven months since the start of the war.
British Foreign Minister David Cameron also condemned the “appalling” incident, saying Israel must call the attackers to account.
Palestinians and human rights groups have long accused the Israeli military and police of deliberately failing to intervene when settlers attack Palestinians in the West Bank.
Adel Amer, a member of the West Bank-based hauliers’ union, said around 15 trucks had been damaged by Israeli protesters who beat some drivers and caused about $2 million worth of damage.
“The drivers are now refusing to take goods to Gaza because they’re afraid,” he said. “It’s a disaster here because of the settlers.”
Even when the military was present, the convoys were still at risk, he said. “The army says we cannot do anything to the settlers.”


EU ‘concerned’ by Tunisia arrests

Updated 44 min 16 sec ago
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EU ‘concerned’ by Tunisia arrests

  • Tunisian authorities ordered Sunday the arrest of two political commentators over critical comments
  • Lawyer Sonia Dahmani was arrested late Saturday after criticizing the state of Tunisia on television

BRUSSELS: The European Union on Tuesday expressed concern over a string of arrests of civil society figures in Tunisia.
Tunisian lawyers on Monday protested and launched a nationwide strike over the arrest of a lawyer and political commentator in a weekend police raid.
Tunisian authorities ordered Sunday the arrest of two political commentators over critical comments, a day after security forces stormed the bar association and took a third pundit into custody.
Lawyer Sonia Dahmani was arrested late Saturday after criticizing the state of Tunisia on television.
“The European Union has followed with concern recent developments in Tunisia, in particular the concomitant arrests of several civil society figures, journalists and political actors,” an EU spokeswoman said.
“Freedoms of expression and association, as well as the independence of the judiciary, are guaranteed by the Tunisian Constitution and constitute the basis of our partnership.”
The clampdown is the latest sign of the authorities tightening control over the country since President Kais Saied began ruling by decree after a sweeping power grab in 2021.
Concern over the situation in Tunisia did not prevent the EU last year from inking a major cooperation deal with the North African state aimed at curbing the flow of migrants across the Mediterranean.


Criminal gangs, profiteers thrive in Gaza as cash shortage worsens misery

Updated 14 May 2024
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Criminal gangs, profiteers thrive in Gaza as cash shortage worsens misery

  • After more than 7 months of Israeli bombardment, just a handful of ATMs remain operational in the strip, most of the them in the southern city of Rafah
  • Now residents say Israel’s offensive in Rafah has dried up supplies again and stoked prices

CAIRO/GENEVA/BERLIN: A shortage of banknotes is gripping Gaza, fueling criminal gangs and profiteering, after Israel has blocked imports of cash and most banks in the enclave have been damaged or destroyed during the war, according to residents, aid workers and banking sources.
After more than 7 months of Israeli bombardment, just a handful of ATMs remain operational in the strip, most of the them in the southern city of Rafah, where some 1.4 million Palestinians are sheltering. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has ordered civilians to evacuate parts of the southern city, sparking fears of a looming offensive. Its tanks entered residential districts there on Tuesday.
Supplies of basic goods had returned to some markets in April and early May for the first time in months after Israel ceded to international pressure to let in more aid trucks amid famine warnings.
But residents and aid workers say that many people haven’t had the cash to purchase them. Now residents say Israel’s offensive in Rafah has dried up supplies again and stoked prices.
Hundreds, sometimes thousands, of desperate people crowd outside ATMs, often waiting days for access. Armed gangs sometimes demand a fee to provide priority access, exploiting the absence of Palestinian police, three Western aid workers and seven residents told Reuters.
Abu Ahmed, 45, a resident of Rafah, said he had waited for as long as seven days and became so frustrated that he turned for help to gang members, who are sometimes armed with knives and guns.
“I paid 300 shekels ($80) of my salary to one of them for accessing the ATM and getting my cash,” said Abu Ahmed, who asked that his last name not be used for fear of reprisals. He earns 3,500 shekels per month as a public servant.
The three Western aid workers described the gangs as improvised groups that have sprung up across the Strip up as desperation has grown.
As of May 13, only 5 branches and 7 ATMs remain operational in the strip, primarily in Rafah, according to the Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute, a non-profit organization headquartered in the West Bank. Before the war, Gaza had 56 bank branches and 91 ATMs.
The conflict erupted after an Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Palestinian Islamist militant group Hamas, in which some 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 taken hostage. Israel’s assault on Gaza, aimed at destroying Hamas and returning the hostages, has killed at least 35,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health ministry.
The Palestinian economy runs on the Israeli shekel. Gaza’s financial system is almost completely dependent on Israel, which must approve major transfers and the movement of cash into the enclave, bankers said.
Israel has blocked cash imports to Gaza since the start of the war in October, according to the Palestine Monetary Authority (PMA) and the Association of Banks in Palestine (ABP), a non-profit based in the West Bank city of Ramallah.
Adnan Alfaleet, the Gaza district manager of Palestine Islamic Bank, which operates the biggest Islamic banking network in the Palestinian Territories, said his bank has no cash left in Gaza.
“We reached the point of complete lack of liquidity now. It can’t get worse,” he said.
The Israeli central bank did not respond to questions about whether transfers had been blocked. It said there were no Israeli banks in Gaza and shekels had circulated there in the past because of trade with and Palestinian workers in Israel.
COGAT, an Israeli Defense Ministry agency tasked with coordinating aid deliveries into the Palestinian territories, did not respond to Reuters’ questions.

POLICE KILLED
Ismail Al-Thawabta, the director of the Hamas-run government media office, said the Palestinian police were trying to protect ATM machines, despite coming under fire from Israeli forces.
A Hamas official, who declined to be named, said police were keeping a low profile and only making surprise raids or patrols at certain locations after officers had been targeted in Israeli strikes.
In February, the top US diplomat involved in humanitarian assistance to Gaza said Israeli forces had killed Palestinian police protecting a UN convoy.
The IDF did not respond to a request for comment on whether its forces have targeted police officers. Reuters could not determine how many police officers have been killed during the war.
Residents said some merchants are profiteering from the shortage. Some money exchange store owners, who can cash Western Union transfers, and even some pharmacists who have credit card machines, were charging heft commissions for access to money, according to two sources.
Azmi Radwan, a union representative of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees UNRWA, said some merchants were charging its staff in Gaza City and the north commission of 20 percent or 30 percent to cash their salaries for them, in the absence of banks.
“This is very dangerous,” he said. “A quarter of the salary that is supposed to feed one’s children is going to these merchants.”
UNRWA employs roughly 13,000 people in Gaza.
Sometimes money changers, after deducting a fee, will then say there are no shekels available and make payments in dollars at an unfavorable exchange rate, according to resident Abu Muhey, who also asked not to be identified by his full name for security reasons.

STUCK IN VAULTS
Meanwhile, hundreds of millions of shekels are stranded inside bank vaults in northern Gaza due to a lack of armored vehicles and fear of looting, according to three UN and banking sources.
Bashar Odeh Yasin, director general of Association of Banks in Palestine (ABP), said the situation remains too unsafe for bank employees or international bodies to transfer the money.
“There’s a real problem in transferring cash from northern Gaza to the south and in bringing in cash from outside the Gaza Strip,” he said.
The number of bank notes in circulation has been further diminished by wear and tear as well as people taking them out when they leave, residents said.
Essential goods such as medicine remain chronically scarce in the enclave, which is also plagued by lengthy power shortages and lack of fuel.
The World Food Programme warned in April of the risk of famine in northern parts of Gaza. Israel this week opened a third crossing to allow more humanitarian aid into the north, but it has shut two checkpoints in the south, including the vital Rafah crossing into Egypt, halting aid deliveries there.
Monday saw fierce fighting in north and south Gaza. Efforts by Egyptian, Qatari and US mediators to secure a ceasefire have so far failed.
“There’s more food, which is provided, but there is definitely a lack of cash for people to buy it,” said Rik Peeperkorn, the World Health Organization’s (WHO) representative to the Palestinian territory.
Many people were trading canned food or other aid for items they were missing, or selling them for cash, residents told Reuters.
Aya, a resident of Gaza City who was displaced first to Rafah and then central Gaza by Israeli operations, received ten blankets in aid packages. As her family already had some, she sold 8 of the blankets to buy her sisters and brothers chocolate and Nescafe, she said.
“Despite the misery, I tried to make them feel happy,” she said.


Norway aims to quadruple aid to Palestinians as famine looms

Updated 14 May 2024
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Norway aims to quadruple aid to Palestinians as famine looms

  • “The urgent need of aid in Gaza is enormous after seven months of war,” Norway’s Minister of International Development, Anne Beathe Tvinnereim, said
  • Norway intends to dedicate 0.98 percent of its gross national income to development aid this year

OSLO: The Norwegian government Tuesday proposed 1 billion kroner ($92.5 million) in aid to Palestinians this year as humanitarian agencies warn of a looming famine in the Gaza Strip.
Figures in the revised budget presented on Tuesday, show a roughly quadrupling of the 258 million kroner provided in the initial finance bill adopted last year.
“The urgent need of aid in Gaza is enormous after seven months of war,” Norway’s Minister of International Development, Anne Beathe Tvinnereim, said in a statement.
“The food situation in particular is critical and there is a risk of famine,” she added, criticizing “an entirely man-made crisis” and an equally “critical” situation in the West Bank.
According to the draft budget, Norway intends to dedicate 0.98 percent of its gross national income to development aid this year.
The figures are still subject to change because the center-left government, a minority in parliament, has to negotiate with other parties to get the texts adopted.
For his part, Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide again warned Israel against a large-scale military operation in Rafah, a city on the southern edge of the besieged Gaza Strip.
“It would be catastrophic for the population. Providing life-saving humanitarian support would become much more difficult and more dangerous,” Barth Eide said.
He added: “The more than 1 million who have sought refuge in Rafah have already fled multiple times from famine, death and horror. They are now being told to move again, but no place in Gaza is safe.”
As part of the response to the unprecedented Hamas attack on Israeli soil on October 7, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he is determined to launch an operation in Rafah, which he considers to be the last major stronghold of the militant organization.
Many in Rafah have been displaced multiple times during the war, and are now heading back north after Israeli forces called for the evacuation of the city’s eastern past.
On May 7, Israeli tanks and troops entered the city’s east sending desperate Palestinians to flee north.
According to the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA), “almost 450,000” people have been displaced from Rafah since May 6.