Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus with China soars by 257% in September

Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil exporter, and China, the largest energy consumer, have broadened their relationship beyond oil-focused ties. File
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Updated 27 November 2023
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Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus with China soars by 257% in September

  • Mineral products played a significant role, constituting an 80 percent share of total exports from the Kingdom

RIYADH: China maintained its position as Saudi Arabia’s primary trading partner in September, dominating both exports and imports, according to the latest data released by the General Authority of Statistics.

The trade surplus with China soared to SR6.67 billion ($1.78 billion), reflecting a 257 percent surge compared to August.

During this period, Saudi Arabia recorded an increase in exports to China at a growth rate of 34 percent reaching a total of SR18.99 billion. Exports comprised mainly oil, to which this increase is attributed, and non-oil products included chemical components, plastic, and rubber.

China’s share of Saudi Arabia’s exports also saw a rise from 14 percent in August to 18 percent in September.

Recently, the People’s Bank of China and the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, signed a local currency swap agreement valued at 50 billion yuan ($6.93 billion). This development, announced on Nov. 20, reflected the growing momentum in bilateral relations between the two countries.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading oil exporter, and China, the largest energy consumer, have broadened their relationship beyond oil-focused ties. This diversification includes collaboration in security and technology.

The recently signed three-year local currency swap agreement is a key initiative to enhance financial cooperation, increase the use of local currencies, and boost trade and investment between Riyadh and Beijing, according to a statement by China’s central bank.

Earlier in March, the state oil giant Saudi Aramco revealed two significant deals aimed at increasing its multibillion-dollar investment in China, solidifying its position as the country’s primary crude provider. These deals marked the most significant announcements since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia in December, during which he advocated for oil trade in yuan, a step that could diminish the dominance of the US dollar.

The UAE stood as the primary non-oil export destination for Saudi Arabia, with 83 percent of the country’s imports from the Kingdom being non-oil. Saudi Arabia’s main exports to the UAE included mechanical, electrical, and transport components, making up 56 percent of the total.

The Kingdom achieved a trade balance of SR43.74 billion in September, marking a 27 percent increase from the previous month and reaching the highest value in nearly five months.

While merchandise exports remained relatively stable compared to August, the rise in the trade balance during September can be attributed to a 14 percent decrease in merchandise imports that hit a five-month low at SR60.09 billion.

Non-oil exports saw a 14 percent decrease from the preceding month, totaling SR16.39 billion. Nevertheless, this decline was almost balanced by a 7 percent rise in oil shipments, comprising 80.1 percent of overall exports and reaching SR83.12 billion in September.

Mineral products played a significant role, constituting an 80 percent share of total exports from Saudi Arabia, up from 75 percent the previous month. The total value of mineral products exported increased by 6.4 percent, reaching SR83.25 billion.

Japan, South Korea, and India trail China as the primary destinations for the Kingdom’s exports.

Exports to Japan marked a 37 percent monthly increase, totaling SR11.37 billion during the same period, elevating its percentage share to 11 percent, up from 8 percent in August.

South Korea and India also experienced boosts in the percentage share of Saudi exports, amounting to SR10.25 billion and SR9.7 billion, respectively.

The UAE and the US secured the fifth and sixth positions in terms of export destinations. While exports to the UAE remained nearly unchanged at SR5.25 billion, exports to the US declined by 43 percent, totaling SR3.56 billion.

China, India, and Turkey trailed the UAE as the leading non-oil export destinations in September. Chemical products, plastic, and rubber comprised 21 percent of non-oil exports to the UAE, 91 percent to China, 89 percent to Turkey, 82 percent to India, 77 percent to Egypt, and 74 percent to the US.

Regarding Saudi Arabia’s imports, mechanical and electronic devices, along with transport vehicles, constituted 40 percent of total imports in September, amounting to SR23.8 billion.

However, this figure declined from SR28.69 billion in August. This, coupled with a 29 percent decrease in vegetable product imports, contributed to over 62 percent of the monthly decline in imports between August and September.

Imports from China amounted to SR12.33 billion in September, constituting 21 percent of Saudi Arabia’s total imports, and they mainly constituted industrial machinery and transport equipment.

The US and the UAE follow China as the top countries for Saudi imports. Imports from the US totaled SR5.23 billion, accounting for 9 percent of the total, while those from the UAE and India amounted to SR4 billion and SR3.5 billion, respectively.

Saudi Arabia primarily imports mechanical, electrical, and transport equipment from China, the US, India, Germany, and Japan. Imports of base metals and textiles also predominantly come from China and India. Additionally, the majority of the Kingdom’s imports of pearls and jewelry are sourced from the UAE and Switzerland, and mineral products from Egypt.

Of the items imported to Saudi Arabia, 46 percent are designated for intermediate consumption, 34 percent for final consumption, and 21 percent are allocated as fixed assets.

The ratio of non-oil exports to imports in Saudi Arabia stood at 34.5 percent in September, compared to 37.5 percent in August.

In September 2023, a non-oil trade surplus existed with the UAE and Kuwait, while there was a trade deficit with Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar.

The trade deficit between Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries contracted to SR388.5 million in September 2023, a significant decrease from SR1.96 billion in the same month last year. This reduction is attributed to the non-oil trade surplus with the UAE, which increased by 140 percent during this period.

Concerning future trade prospects, the Britain, Russia, India, China, and South Africa bloc of countries, known as BRICS, invited Saudi Arabia and other nations to join as full members starting January 2024 during its 15th summit in South Africa.

BRICS emphasizes its economic strength for global recovery and addressing supply chain disruptions, aiming to counter Western influence and the dominance of the US dollar. Saudi Arabia is considering the invitation, with Foreign Affairs Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan expressing appreciation and stating a thorough evaluation before potential membership by Jan. 1.


UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

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UAE’s residential real estate market to see softer home sales

  • Moody’s sees mild softening of prices over the next 12 - 8 months as rising completions add supply

RIYADH: The UAE’s residential real estate market is expected to see a modest decline in developer sales and a mild softening of prices over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply, Moody’s said.

Despite near-term easing, the credit ratings agency noted that developers are supported by strong revenue backlogs and solid financial positions, while regulatory measures have reduced banks’ exposure to the construction and property sectors, helping to preserve robust solvency and liquidity buffers across the financial system.

The broader trend is reflected in the UAE’s real estate market, which recorded a strong performance during the first three quarters of 2025, according to Markaz.

In Dubai, transaction values increased 28.3 percent year on year to 554.1 billion Emirati dirhams ($150.88 billion), while Abu Dhabi recorded total sales of 58 billion dirhams, up 75.8 percent year on year. The number of transactions in Abu Dhabi rose 42.3 percent to 15,800.

The report said: “After five years of extraordinary growth in the UAE’s residential real estate market, particularly in Dubai, we expect developer sales to decline modestly and some price softening over the next 12 to 18 months as rising completions add supply. 

“From 2026 to 2028, around 180,000 new units will be completed in Dubai, a significant increase from prior years that is likely to weigh on demand and slow price growth. 

“However, fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by continued population growth and an influx of high-net-worth individuals. Rated developers’ credit quality will remain resilient, supported by strong revenue backlogs, front-loaded payment plans and solid financial positions.”

Munir Al-Daraawi, founder and CEO of Dubai-based Orla Properties, told Arab News the Moody’s report underscores what the firm is seeing on the ground, namely “a market that is successfully transitioning from a period of extraordinary growth to one of sustainable stability.”

He added: “While a mild softening of prices and a modest decline in sales are anticipated over the next 12 to 18 months, these are natural adjustments for a maturing global hub like Dubai.” 

Al-Daraawi believes the the projected delivery of 180,000 units between 2026 and 2028 is not a cause for concern, but “a reflection of the UAE’s long-term appeal to high-net-worth individuals and a growing population.”   

The CEO added: “The report rightly points out that fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by Dubai’s 2040 Urban Master Plan and a significant influx of global talent.” 

He went on to note that the resilience of the sector is further bolstered by the solid financial positions of developers and the strong regulatory measures that have shielded the banking sector from excessive exposure.

“This creates a robust ecosystem where credit quality remains high, even as we navigate a more competitive landscape. For boutique and luxury-focused developers, the current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation — factors that will continue to define the UAE’s real estate success story,” said Al-Daraawi. 

The current environment emphasizes the importance of quality, execution, and strategic capital allocation.

Munir Al-Daraawi, Founder and CEO of Orla Properties

Riad Gohar, co-founder and CEO of BlackOak Real Estate, told Arab News that while Moody’s is correct to say that supply is rising, the conclusion of a broad slowdown ignores the structure of this current economic cycle.

He added: “First, this is not a debt-fueled market. Around 83 percent of Dubai residential transactions in 2024 and 2025 were non-mortgaged. That means the market is equity-driven, not credit-driven. When cycles are not built on leverage, corrections are typically shallow and segmented, not systemic. “

He added that the macroeconomic backdrop is stronger than in past cycles, driven by sustained non-oil gross domestic product increase, structural reforms, population growth, and capital inflows aligned with long-term national plans.

“Demand is not purely speculative; it is driven by migration, business formation, and wealth relocation,” the CEO said.

“Third, prime vs. non-prime must be separated. Any pressure from increased completions is more likely to affect marginal locations, not established prime areas supported by global HNWI inflows. Historically, prime assets in Dubai have shown resilience even during broader market pauses,” Gohar added.

He continued to clarify that for smaller developers, some may feel margin compression if sales moderate, but this becomes a consolidation phase, not a systemic risk.

“Banks’ real estate exposure has already declined to around 12 percent of total loans — from 19 percent in 2021 — and NPLs (non-performing loans) are low at 2.9 percent, meaning financial contagion risk is limited. Regulatory escrow structures and stricter oversight further reduce spillover,” the CEO said.

“We are in a capital-rich, cash-driven cycle, regulated market with strong GDP and population growth. If anything, weaker fringe players exiting would strengthen the core not destabilize it,” he said.

The Moody’s report highlighted that while most developers it rates will generate “substantial excess cash” over the next two to three years, there will be fewer opportunities to make significant investments, especially within the Dubai real estate market.

As well as prompting a shift toward corporate governance and, in particular, how developers deploy their rising liquidity, some firms are looking to diversify beyond their core business models.

“For instance, Binghatti has recently launched its first master-planned villa community, marking a departure from its historical focus on single-plot high-rise developments, as demand for villas continues to outperform that for apartments,” said the report.

It continued: “Others are looking beyond Dubai and the UAE for growth, whether through geographic diversification or expansion into unrelated sectors.

“For example, Damac’s owner, Hussain Sajwani, has announced significant planned investments in data center development across the US and Europe.

“Emaar continues to develop actively in Egypt and India and is evaluating potential entry into China and the US. Aldar has started development projects in the UK and Egypt, while Arada has begun building in Australia and the UK and Sobha is expanding into the US.”