Gaza truce unlikely to be extended, experts say

Aid including medical supply, food and fuel has entered Gaza through the Rafah crossing bordering Egypt. (AFP filephoto)
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Updated 27 November 2023
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Gaza truce unlikely to be extended, experts say

  • The four-day truce is set to expire on Tuesday contingent upon the transfer of 50 hostages held by Hamas

LONDON: The truce in Gaza is unlikely to last much longer than Tuesday, with signs on Sunday that Israel was preparing to resume its air and ground offensive, The Guardian reported.

The four-day truce, which the Israel Defense Forces described as an “operational pause,” is set to expire on Tuesday contingent upon the transfer of 50 hostages held by Hamas. The agreement is extendable by a day for every 10 hostages released by the militant group.

“I can’t see the truce lasting more than a week,” Miri Eisin, a former Israeli military intelligence specialist who runs the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism, told The Guardian.

Eisin said the IDF wanted to dismantle Hamas’ military capability and that “the only way to do that is through a systematic and careful ground operation.”

On Monday morning, IDF Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi told Israeli soldiers: “I saw reflected in your eyes the magnitude of the moment, the fighting spirit and determination to achieve all the objectives of the war.

“I heard you tell me, ‘We want to fight until we return the hostages.’ And so, we are doing just that,” he said.

Israel’s military estimates that it has killed between 1,000 and 2,000 Hamas fighters out of a 30,000-strong military force.

However, Israel has killed at least 14,800 Palestinians, mostly civilians, in Gaza, and wounded tens of thousands more. The Israeli military has dropped around 40,000 tons of bombs on the besieged enclave and carried out attacks on crucial public facilities, including hospitals and schools, Gaza authorities said.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to eliminate Hamas, yet the group retains its capability for both combat and negotiation, The Guardian reported.

After a heavy bombing campaign, the IDF had surrounded the northern region of the Gaza Strip when the truce began on Friday; however, pockets of resistance remained. Satellite analysis suggests the destruction of between 40 percent and 50 percent of buildings in northern Gaza, turning areas such as Jabalia into urban wastelands, The Guardian added.

The IDF’s next target is the south, where Palestinian civilians were meant to flee, and specifically Khan Younis, where Israel claims Hamas’ headquarters and leader, Yahya Sinwar, are located.

Last Monday, Israel ordered people, many of whom had previously been displaced, to leave the city. It anticipates that people will flee west to the already congested coastal area of Al-Mawasi.

Any decision to relaunch the war rests with Israel’s war cabinet, chaired by Netanyahu, who promised right-wing coalition allies last week that it would resume after the 50 hostages were released to sell the deal to them. “I want to be clear. The war is continuing,” the PM said on Wednesday.

US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said the White House was having “a constructive conversation” with Israel on Sunday about ensuring that “any military action only takes place after civilians have been accounted for.”

H.A. Hellyer, a Middle East expert working with the Royal United Services Institute, told The Guardian it would be difficult to eliminate Hamas completely.

“The question is, what price will be visited on the population? And that price is not euphemistic. We have already seen horrific levels of civilians being killed,” he said.


Turkiye’s Kurdish party says Syria deal leaves Ankara ‘no excuses’ on peace process

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Turkiye’s Kurdish party says Syria deal leaves Ankara ‘no excuses’ on peace process

ANKARA: Turkiye’s pro-Kurdish DEM Party said on Monday that the Turkish government had no more “excuses” to delay a peace process with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) now that a landmark integration deal was achieved in neighboring Syria.
On Sunday in Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agreed to come under the control of authorities in Damascus — a move that Ankara had long sought as integral to ‌its own peace ‌effort with the PKK. “For more than a ‌year, ⁠the ​government ‌has presented the SDF’s integration with Damascus as the biggest obstacle to the process,” Tuncer Bakirhan, co-leader of the DEM Party, told Reuters, in some of the party’s first public comments on the deal in Syria.
“The government will no longer have any excuses left. Now it is the government’s turn to take concrete steps.” Bakirhan cautioned President Tayyip Erdogan’s ⁠government against concluding that the rolling back Kurdish territorial gains in Syria negated the need ‌for a peace process in Turkiye. “If the ‍government calculates that ‘we have weakened ‍the Kurds in Syria, so there is no longer a ‍need for a process in Turkiye,’ it would be making a historic mistake,” he said in the interview.
Turkish officials said earlier on Monday that the Syrian integration deal, if implemented, could
advance the more than year-long process with the ​PKK, which is based in northern Iraq. Erdogan urged
swift integration of Kurdish fighters into Syria’s armed forces. Turkiye, the strongest ⁠foreign backer of Damascus, has since 2016 repeatedly sent forces into northern Syria to curb the gains of the SDF — which after the 2011–2024 civil war had controlled more than a quarter of Syria while fighting Islamic State with strong US backing.
The United States has built close ties with Damascus over the last year and was closely involved in mediation between it and the SDF toward the deal.
Bakirhan said progress required recognition of Kurdish rights on both sides of the border.
“What needs to be done is clear: Kurdish rights must be recognized ‌in both Turkiye and Syria, democratic regimes must be established, and freedoms must be guaranteed,” he said.