KARACHI: The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) $3 billion bailout deal will provide much-needed fiscal space to Pakistan but not solve the country’s long-term problems, financial experts and economists said on Saturday.
Subject to the IMF’s board approval in July, the stand-by arrangement (SBA) provides breathing space to a Pakistani economy staring at default and in dire need of external financing. The staff-level pact was announced a day before Pakistan’s previous $6.5 billion loan program with the IMF expired.
Cash-strapped Pakistan will get $1.1 billion in funds under the new financing arrangement right after the IMF’s board meeting in mid-July. The new deal provides Pakistan more than the $2.5 billion disbursement it expected to receive under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program that concluded incompletely on June 30, 2023.
“The SBA provides some much-needed space to the Pakistani economy and will most certainly dampen near-term uncertainty,” Uzair Younus, director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Washington-based think tank, the Atlantic Council, told Arab News.
“However, the economy remains in a precarious situation and the government has to try and sort out some of the major issues in the energy sector, reduce distortion in the exchange rate market, and adopt a policy framework that doesn’t just burn the external financing the country has unlocked to achieve near-term political objectives.”
Economists say the deal will only offer Pakistan short-term respite.
“It will not solve long-term problems of paying on average around $25 billion per year for the next three years,” Dr. Ikram ul Haq, a Lahore-based senior economist, told Arab News.
The new deal came through after Finance Minister Ishaq Dar revised the federal budget the government passed on June 9, 2023. Dar increased Pakistan’s revenue collection target to Rs9.415 trillion ($33 billion) and put total spending at Rs14.480 trillion ($51 billion), increasing the petroleum levy from Rs50 to Rs60 per liter.
Authorities have taken Rs215 billion ($752 million) additional tax measures, cut Rs85 billion expenditures, hiked allocations under the social safety Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) by Rs16 billion, and withdrew amnesty on foreign exchange inflows, while the central bank jacked up policy rate by 1 percent to record high at 22 percent in an emergency meeting.
Economists said the high cost of the IMF bailout package would be borne by the masses rather than the elite.
“The key to success of SBA and next program will be structural reforms that is Waterloo of our elites,” Haq said, adding that “the real victims will be masses who will pay higher indirect taxes and bear high cost of utilities as has happened under previous program.”
For now, the SBA has had a positive impact on local and international investors’ confidence, with Pakistan’s sovereign dollar bond, maturing in 2024, gaining its value as fears of default subsided.
“Significant upward movement in bond prices demonstrates growing optimism among investors regarding Pakistan’s ability to address its economic challenges and implement necessary reforms under the IMF-supported program,” Tahir Abbas, head of research at Arif Habib Limited told Arab News.
Pakistani analysts and currency dealers expect that the country’s capital markets may rally from next week in response to positive the development, which would unlock further funding from bilateral and multilateral partners.
Malik Bostan, president of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) hoped the IMF deal would help Pakistan’s national currency regain its lost value.
“The rupee is expected to recover about Rs5 to Rs10 on the opening day of trading and will further strengthen by Rs10 to Rs20 with the inflow of funds,” Bostan told Arab News. “Those hoarding dollars for gains will not suffer losses if they don’t come out to sell.”
IMF’s $3 billion bailout deal will not solve Pakistan’s long-term problems, say experts
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IMF’s $3 billion bailout deal will not solve Pakistan’s long-term problems, say experts
- Economists say IMF agreement provides much-needed space to Pakistani economy, will dampen near-term uncertainty
- Pakistani rupee to recover by Rs10-20 against the US dollar when the IMF funds are received, says currency dealer
Pakistan opposition to continue protest over ex-PM Khan’s health amid conflicting reports
- Pakistan’s government insists that the ex-premier’s eye condition has improved
- Khan’s personal doctor says briefed on his condition but cannot confirm veracity
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s opposition alliance on Monday vowed to continue their protest sit-in at parliament and demanded “clarity” over the health of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan, following conflicting medical reports about his eye condition.
The 73-year-old former cricket star-turned-politician has been held at the high-security Adiala prison in Rawalpindi since 2023. Concerns arose about his health last week when a court-appointed lawyer, Barrister Salman Safdar, was asked to visit Khan at the jail to assess his living conditions. Safdar reported that Khan had suffered “severe vision loss” in his right eye due to central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO), leaving him with just 15 percent sight in the affected eye.
On Sunday, a team of doctors from various hospitals visited the prison to examine Khan’s eye condition, according to the Adiala jail superintendent, who later submitted his report in the court. On Monday, a Supreme Court bench led by Chief Justice Yahya Afridi observed that based on reports from the prison authorities and the amicus curiae, Khan’s “living conditions in jail do not presently exhibit any perverse aspects.” It noted that Khan had “generally expressed satisfaction with the prevailing conditions of his confinement” and had not sought facilities beyond the existing level of care.
Having carefully perused both reports in detail, the bench observed that their general contents and the overall picture emerging therefrom are largely consistent. The opposition alliance, which continued to stage its sit-in for a fourth consecutive day on Monday, held a meeting at the parliament building on Monday evening to deliberate on the emerging situation and discuss their future course of action.
“The sit-in will continue till there is clarity on the matter of [Khan's] health,” Sher Ali Arbab, a lawmaker from Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party who has been participating in the sit-in, told Arab News, adding that PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan and Opposition Leader in Senate Raja Nasir Abbas had briefed them about their meeting with doctors who had visited Khan on Sunday.
Speaking to reporters outside parliament, Gohar said the doctors had informed them that Khan’s condition had improved.
“They said, 'There has been a significant and satisfactory improvement.' With that satisfactory improvement, we also felt satisfied,” he said, noting that the macular thickness in Khan’s eye had reportedly dropped from 550 to 300 microns, a sign of subsiding swelling.
Gohar said the party did not want to politicize Khan’s health.
“We are not doctors, nor is this our field,” he said, noting that Khan’s personal physician in Lahore, Dr. Aasim Yusuf, and his eye specialist Dr. Khurram Mirza had also sought input from the Islamabad-based medical team.
“Our doctors also expressed satisfaction over the report.”
CONFLICTING ACCOUNTS
Despite Gohar’s cautious optimism, Khan’s personal physician, Dr. Yusuf, issued a video message on Monday, saying he could neither “confirm nor deny the veracity” of the government’s claims.
“Because I have not seen him myself and have not been able to participate in his care... I’m unable to confirm what we have been told,” Yusuf said.
He appealed to authorities to grant him or fellow physician, Dr. Faisal Sultan, immediate access to Khan, arguing that the ex-premier should be moved to Shifa International Hospital in Islamabad for specialist care.
Speaking to Arab News, PTI’s central information secretary Sheikh Waqas Akram said Khan’s sister and their cousin, Dr. Nausherwan Burki, will speak to media on Tuesday to express their views about the situation.
The government insists that Khan’s condition has improved.
“His eye [condition] has improved and is better than before,” State Minister Talal Chaudhry told the media in a brief interaction on Monday.
“The Supreme Court of Pakistan is involved, and doctors are involved. What medicine he receives, whether he needs to be hospitalized or sent home, these decisions are made by doctors. Neither lawyers nor any political party will decide this.”
