KARACHI: Pakistan's government will hope to find a balance between reforms to satisfy the International Monetary Fund and measures to win over voters in an imminent election in its budget for the 2023-24 fiscal year to be announced on Friday, analysts said.
Pakistan's IMF program runs out this month with about $2.5 billion in funds yet to be released as it struggles to strike an agreement with the lender, as it grapples with record inflation, fiscal imbalances, and low reserves.
A general election is due by November, which the government will be hoping will end turmoil arising from a protest campaign former premier Imran Khan has led since he was ousted in a no-confidence vote last year.
Former finance minister Miftah Ismail said it was essential for the government to secure IMF funding so there was little chance of an expansionary budget.
"Without the IMF, it would be very difficult for Pakistan to survive the next fiscal year, so I’m sure the government will come up with a budget that is more or less in line with IMF prescriptions," Ismail said.
A staff-level IMF agreement to release $1.1 billion of a $6.5 billion package has been delayed since November.
The funds are crucial for Pakistan to avert a balance of payments crisis, and most analysts believe that even after the expiry of the current program, Pakistan will have to seek a bailout in the upcoming fiscal to avert defaulting on debt obligations.
Central bank reserves can cover imports for about a month.
Inflation surged to 37.97% in the country of 220 million people in May, a record for the second consecutive month and the highest rate in South Asia.
On Tuesday, the planning minister announced that budget targets for development spending would be 1,150 billion rupees ($4.02 billion) in the new fiscal year, while inflation for the year is projected at 21%.
With the general election looming, some analysts believe the government will announce vote-winning measures on Friday, even if the promises have to be scaled back later.
Fahad Rauf, head of research at the Karachi-based brokerage Ismail Iqbal Securities, said he expected a pay rise for government employees and a package for the agriculture sector, with more of a burden being piled on an already narrow tax base, and few if any, meaningful steps to broaden it.
"Banks and taxed industries will continue to feel the heat," Rauf said, adding that he thought a so-called super tax of 10% on more than 15 sectors would be levied again, even though the government said last year it was a one-off payment.
A year ago, the government set a total expenditure target at 9.5 trillion rupees for the 2022/23 year from 8.49 trillion rupees the year plans had to be scaled back after IMF discontent.
Rauf said he expected a repeat of that this year.
Independent economist Sakib Sherani said he too believed the budget would be full of populist pre-election measures that would be unlikely to survive the July-September quarter, given the necessity of more IMF support.
Pakistani budget caught between IMF expectations and election
https://arab.news/vrry2
Pakistani budget caught between IMF expectations and election
- IMF program for South Asian country runs out this month with about $2.5 billion in funds yet to be released
- IMF funds are crucial for Pakistan to avert a balance of payments crisis and avoid defaulting on debt obligations
Pakistan offers Kyrgyzstan Arabian Sea access as two states sign 15 cooperation accords
- Pakistan and Kyrgyzstan sign MOUs spanning trade, energy, agriculture, ports, education, security cooperation
- Kyrgyz president is on first visit to Pakistan in 20 years as both sides push connectivity and CASA-1000 power links
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Thursday offered Kyrgyzstan the shortest and most economical route to the Arabian Sea as the two countries signed 15 agreements and memoranda of understanding aimed at boosting cooperation across trade, energy, agriculture, education, customs data-sharing and port logistics.
The accords were signed during a visit to Islamabad by President Sadyr Zhaparov, the first by a Kyrgyz head of state to Pakistan in two decades, and part of Islamabad’s renewed push to link South Asia with landlocked Central Asian economies through ports, power corridors and transport routes.
For Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan offers access to hydropower through CASA-1000, a $1.2 billion regional electricity transmission project designed to carry surplus summer electricity from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan through Afghanistan into Pakistan. For Bishkek, Pakistan provides overland access to warm-water ports on the Arabian Sea, creating a shorter commercial route to global markets.
“President Asif Ali Zardari has reiterated Pakistan’s readiness to offer Kyrgyzstan the shortest and most economical route to the Arabian Sea,” Radio Pakistan reported after Zhaparov met the Pakistani president.
The two leaders also discussed expanding direct flights to deepen business, tourism and people-to-people ties.
Zardari welcomed Kyrgyzstan’s completion of its segment of the CASA-1000 project and “reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to completing its part of the project, which is now at an advanced stage,” the state broadcaster said.
Zhaparov thanked Islamabad for supporting Bishkek’s candidacy for a non-permanent UN Security Council seat and invited Zardari to visit Kyrgyzstan at a time of his convenience. Both sides expressed satisfaction with progress under the Quadrilateral Traffic in Transit Agreement, designed to facilitate road movement between Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and China.
Earlier, both governments exchanged 15 sectoral cooperation documents covering commerce, mining, geosciences, power, agriculture, youth programs, the exchange of convicted persons, customs electronic data systems and a sister-city linkage between Islamabad and Bishkek.
According to APP, the MOUs were signed by ministers representing foreign affairs, commerce, economy, energy, power, railways, interior, culture, health and tourism. Agreements also covered cooperation between Pakistan’s Foreign Service Academy and the Diplomatic Academy of Kyrgyzstan, as well as collaboration between universities, youth ministries and cultural institutions.
“Our present mutual trade, comprising of about $15–16 million will be enhanced to $200 million in the next two years,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said after the agreements were signed, calling them “a framework for structured, result-oriented engagement and closer institutional linkages.”
Sharif said Pakistan was ready to serve as a maritime outlet for the landlocked Central Asian republic, offering access to Karachi, Port Qasim and Gwadar to help Kyrgyz goods reach regional and global markets.
