UBS flags $17bn hit from Credit Suisse takeover

UBS said it was rushed into Credit Swiss deal and had less than four days to complete due diligence (Shutterstock)
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Updated 17 May 2023
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UBS flags $17bn hit from Credit Suisse takeover

LONDON: UBS Group AG expects a financial hit of about $17 billion from the takeover of Credit Suisse Group AG, the bank said in a regulatory presentation as it prepares to complete the rescue of its struggling Swiss rival, according to Reuters.

UBS estimates a negative impact of $13 billion from fair value adjustments of the combined group’s assets and liabilities.

It also sees $4 billion in potential litigation and regulatory costs stemming from outflows.

UBS, however, also estimated it would book a one-off gain stemming from the so-called “negative goodwill” of $34.8 billion by buying Credit Suisse for a fraction of its book value.

The financial cushion will help absorb potential losses and could result in a boost to the lender’s second-quarter profit if UBS closes the transaction next month as planned.

UBS said the estimates were preliminary and the numbers could change materially later on. It also said it might book restructuring provisions after that, but offered no numbers.

“The financial information lacks an estimate of restructuring provisions as these will be booked after the transaction closes,” Vontobel analyst Andreas Venditti said in a note.

Analysts at Jefferies have estimated restructuring costs, litigation provisions and the planned winding down of the non-core unit could total $28 billion.

Meanwhile, UBS has implemented a number of restrictions on Credit Suisse while the takeover is underway.

In certain cases, Credit Suisse cannot grant a new credit facility or credit line exceeding 100 million Swiss francs ($113 million) to investment-grade borrowers or more than 50 million Swiss francs to non-investment-grade borrowers, a UBS filing showed.

“Credit Suisse obviously found itself in a problem because of lapses in its risk controls and I think just setting these parameters on the ability or standards to lend out is not very unreasonable,” said Benjamin Quinlan, Hong Kong-based chief executive of financial consultancy firm Quinlan & Associates

“Ultimately, from UBS’ perspective, they will have to wear these risks on their books.”

Credit Suisse also cannot undertake capital expenses of more than 10 million Swiss francs as part of the restrictions or enter into certain contracts worth more than 3 million Swiss francs per year.

The filing shows Credit Suisse cannot order any “material amendments” to its employee terms and conditions, including remuneration and pension entitlements, till deal closure.

The restrictions “will cause certain clients to leave Credit Suisse” but may not accelerate the pace of outflows already seen, said Quinlan, following UBS’ statement last week that Credit Suisse had already stemmed asset outflows.

Rushed into a deal

UBS said it was rushed into the deal and had less than four days to complete due diligence given the ‘emergency circumstances’ as Credit Suisse’s financial health worsened.

UBS agreed in March to buy Credit Suisse for 3 billion Swiss francs in stock and to assume up to 5 billion Swiss francs in losses that would stem from winding down part of the business, in a shotgun merger engineered by Swiss authorities over a weekend amid a global banking turmoil.

The deal, the first rescue of a global bank since the 2008 financial crisis, will create a wealth manager with more than $5 trillion in invested assets and over 120,000 employees globally.

The Swiss state is backing the deal with up to 250 billion Swiss francs in public funds.

Switzerland’s government is providing a guarantee of up to 9 billion Swiss francs for further potential losses on a clearly defined part of Credit Suisse portfolio.

UBS signaled no quick turnaround for the 167-year-old Credit Suisse, which came to the brink of collapse during the recent banking sector turmoil after years of scandals and losses.

It said it expected both the Credit Suisse group and its investment bank to report substantial pre-tax losses in the second quarter and the whole of this year.

Following the legal closing of the transaction, UBS Group AG plans to manage two separate parent companies – UBS AG and Credit Suisse AG, UBS said last week. It has said the integration process could take three to four years.

During that time, each institution will continue to have its own subsidiaries and branches, serve its clients and deal with counterparties. 


How mining can transform Saudi Arabia’s economy

Updated 07 March 2026
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How mining can transform Saudi Arabia’s economy

  • Kingdom’s mineral wealth valued at $2.5tn, positioning mining as a third pillar of the national economy

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is accelerating its push into mining as part of its economic transformation under Vision 2030, amid the growing importance of critical minerals and rare earths.

The Kingdom’s mineral wealth is valued at $2.5 trillion, positioning mining as a third pillar of the national economy alongside hydrocarbons.

The mining industry could give Saudi Arabia an edge in transition minerals and supply chains by expanding extraction, processing and the logistics needed to move materials to market, according to economists and industry specialists.

Saudi Arabia is home to more than 45 identified minerals, including gold, copper and uranium, according to the Vision 2030 strategy.

Momentum has been supported by measures aimed at making mining easier to invest in and faster to scale, including updated regulations, digital licensing platforms, specialized mining services, and new transport and rail links to mining areas.

Vision 2030 aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to SR240 billion ($63 billion) by 2030, create 200,000 direct and indirect jobs, and attract $27 billion in new investment, according to published government targets.

Signs of progress are starting to show in the mining sector in terms of exploration activity, licensing and new discoveries.

“The mining strategy shows it’s working very well, evidenced by the rapid rise in exploration and industrial licenses, and major new mineral discoveries,” Talat Hafiz, an economist and financial analyst, told Arab News.

Saudi Arabia is undertaking the world’s largest geological survey, covering about 700,000 sq. km of the Arabian Shield for $1.5 billion, he said. 

The number of mining licenses issued exceeds 2,000, according to official data, and the Kingdom’s mineral wealth is valued at 90 percent higher than it was in 2016 when Vision 2030 was rolled out.

A key milestone highlighted in Vision 2030’s mining strategy was the introduction of a new mining investment law, which reduced the tax rate to 20 percent from 45 percent to spur investment and align the sector with global standards.

The Kingdom’s mining resources position it well to be a critical supplier of raw materials that are integral to energy transition as clean-energy technologies require large volumes of mined materials.

Copper is central to electrification and power networks, while battery supply chains rely on minerals such as nickel and lithium. Phosphate is a key industrial input with wider economic value.

Reliable supplies of metals and minerals used in power grids, batteries and electric vehicles can attract investment and support downstream industry in the Kingdom.

Saudi Arabia’s Jabal Sayid site, northeast of Jeddah, ranks among the world’s top four resources for rare earth elements, Khalid Al-Mudaifer, vice minister of industry and mineral resources for mining affairs, recently told Al Eqtisadiah.

It will help meet Saudi Arabia’s needs for minerals used in magnet manufacturing, EVs and wind energy, while also supporting global supply, including the US market, he said.

Mining can also catalyze investment in the Kingdom, widen supply-chain employment, and boost non-oil exports and private-sector growth, according to economists and policymakers.

Mines, processing plants and the infrastructure around them require large upfront capital spending, creating a pipeline of work across construction, equipment, utilities and logistics. 

The mining industry could give Saudi Arabia an edge in transition minerals and supply chains by expanding extraction, processing and the logistics needed to move materials to market. (Shutterstock)

“When a mining sector scales, the economic footprint extends well beyond extraction,” said Turki Al-Nahari, vice president of global mining at Ecolab, told Arab News. “Growth typically occurs across engineering services, industrial water management, logistics, laboratory testing, equipment reliability, environmental services and digital performance systems.

“That shift creates demand for skilled engineers, technicians, data analysts and operational specialists,” he added.

In 2025, Saudi Arabia’s mining exploration budget increased 600 percent to $146 million from $21 million in 2022.

“This growth is driven by ongoing geological surveys, technological advancements and higher exploitation budgets, all of which signal stability and opportunity, attracting foreign investment,” Manraj Lamba, a mining economics analyst at S&P Global, said in a recent report.

Mining projects are easier to finance when the size and quality of the deposit are clear, costs are competitive, and rules and taxes are stable, Abdullah Al-Harbi, an economist familiar with the industry, told Arab News.

Investors want solid feasibility work, credible timelines and evidence a project can stay profitable through swings in commodity prices, Al-Harbi said.

Saudi Arabia’s pipeline includes 24 exploration-stage projects and 17 more advanced developments, according to S&P Global.

“Its proactive approach to geological surveys and resource assessment has uncovered significant potential across gold, copper, phosphate and bauxite,” Lamba said.

Large projects also tend to generate employment across a wider industrial supply chain, including contractors, maintenance, laboratories, transport and a range of operational services.

To boost employment and support hiring and training, Saudi Arabia has moved to standardize job roles and skills for the mining industry. 

HIGHLIGHT

Vision 2030 aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to SR240 billion ($63 billion) by 2030, create 200,000 direct and indirect jobs, and attract $27 billion in new investment.

The Kingdom rolled out a framework related to employment and skills in the mining industry in January at the Global Labor Market Conference.

The framework is “a tool which ensures clear definitions of occupations and their required skills,” the Kingdom’s Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Al-Khorayef said. It will cover more than 500 job roles, detail the necessary skills, responsibilities and titles, he added.

Exports from the sector are already rising in tandem with investments to develop the industry and create jobs.

Saudi Arabia exported 5.7 million tonnes of phosphate fertilizer in 2024, up about 6 percent from 2023, according to a GASTAT report.

As the energy transition accelerates, Saudi Arabia’s advantage may be strongest beyond extraction alone.

“Saudi Arabia’s most realistic advantage in the accelerating energy transition lies in combining selective mining with strong processing and refining capabilities, supported by its emerging role as a logistics and supply-chain hub,” Hafiz said.

The Kingdom’s position between Africa, Europe, and Asia favors downstream processing and value-added industries, he added.

“Saudi Arabia is prioritizing minerals that are both financeable and strategically aligned with emerging industries such as electric vehicles and clean energy technologies, where markets are clear, and demand is scalable,” Hafiz said.

Aluminum, phosphate, and similar commodities remain a key focus to support local manufacturing, infrastructure development and downstream industries while strengthening export capacity, he said.

“Once construction concludes, the priority shifts to operational stability and performance optimization,” Al-Nahari said.

“Small efficiency gains, applied consistently across large-scale operations, compound materially over time,” influencing cost as well as uptime and competitiveness over the life of a mine, he added.

As the global race toward electrification and decarbonization accelerates, the Kingdom is effectively positioning itself beyond its oil legacy with its strategic commitment to the minerals sector, which will play a critical role in powering the future.

Its investment in exploration, infrastructure, and downstream processing anchor it as a pivotal supplier in the critical minerals and rare earths value chain in the era of energy transition.