ANKARA: Early in his political career, a devastating earthquake and economic troubles helped propel Recep Tayyip Erdogan to power in Turkiye. Two decades later, similar circumstances are putting his leadership at risk.
The highly divisive and populist Erdogan is seeking a third consecutive term as president on May 14, after three stints as prime minister, which would extend his rule into a third decade. He already is Turkiye’s longest-serving leader.
The presidential and parliamentary elections could be the most challenging yet for the 69-year-old Erdogan. Most opinion polls point to a slight lead by his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads the secular, center-left Republican People’s Party, or CHP. The outcome of the presidential race could well be determined in a runoff vote May 28.
Erdogan is facing a tough test in this election because of public outrage over rising inflation and his handling of the Feb. 6 earthquake in southern Turkiye that killed over 50,000 people, leveled cities and left millions without homes. His political adversaries say the government was slow to respond and that its failure to enforce building codes is to blame for the high death toll.
Some even point to government malfeasance after a 1999 earthquake in northwestern Turkiye near the city of Izmit that killed about 18,000 people, saying that taxes imposed from that disaster were misspent and worsened the effects of this year’s quake.
The political party founded by Erdogan in 2001 came to power amid an economic crisis and the Izmit quake. His Justice and Development Party, or AKP, capitalized on public anger over government mishandling of the disaster, and Erdogan became prime minister in 2003 and has never relinquished leadership of the country.
Still, even with resentment directed toward Erdogan over his handling of the February quake and the economy, analysts caution against underestimating him, pointing to his enduring appeal among working- and middle-class religious voters who had long felt alienated by Turkiye’s former secular and Western-leaning elites.
Erdogan’s nationalist policies, often confrontational stance against the West and moves that have raised Islam’s profile in the country continue to resonate among conservative supporters. They point to an economic boom in the first half of his rule that lifted many people out of poverty, adding that his past successes are proof of his ability to turn things around.
“There is an economic crisis in Turkiye, we can’t deny it. And yes, this economic crisis has had a huge impact on us,” said Sabit Celik, a 38-year-old shop owner selling cleaning products in Istanbul. “But still, I don’t think anyone else (but Erdogan) can come and fix this.”
“I think our salvation is through the (ruling party) again,” he said.
Many also point to major infrastructure projects begun during his tenure — highways, bridges, airports, hospitals, and low-income housing.
Erdogan himself has conceded that there were shortcomings in the early days of the February earthquake but insisted the situation was quickly brought under control.
Since then, he has focused his reelection campaign on reconstructing quake-stricken areas, promising to build 319,000 homes within the year. At rally after rally, he has touted past projects as proof that only his government can restore the region.
Erdogan has announced a series of spending measures to bring temporary relief to those hardest-hit by inflation, including raising minimum wages and pensions, enacting measures to allow some people to take early retirement, and providing assistance to consumers for electricity and natural gas.
He also has focused on the defense sector, boosting production of drones and fighter jets and building an amphibious landing vessel that the government describes as “the world’s first drone carrier.”
“While we were a country that could not even produce pins, an unmanned aerial plane flew above our skies the other day,” said Mustafa Agaoglu, another Erdogan supporter in Istanbul. “We now have our warships, our aircraft carriers, our roads, our bridges, our city hospitals.”
Erdogan has timed a host of openings to coincide with the election campaign. Last month, he presided at a ceremony marking the delivery of natural gas from recently discovered Black Sea reserves, offering free gas to households for a month. This week, he announced the discovery of a new oil reserve in the country’s southeast, with a capacity of 100,000 barrels per day.
When he suffered a brief intestinal illness that sidelined him for a few days, he took part via video in an event marking the delivery of fuel to Turkiye’s first nuclear power plant.
Then, on Sunday, he said Turkiye’s intelligence teams had killed the leader of the Daesh group in a special operation in northern Syria — an announcement that seemed designed to bolster his image as a strong leader.
In the upcoming election, six parties have united behind his main opponent, Kilicdaroglu, despite their disparate political views. The coalition, known as the Nation Alliance, has vowed to reverse the democratic backsliding and crackdowns on free speech and dissent under Erdogan, seeking to scrap the powerful presidential system he introduced that concentrates vast authority in his hands.
As in previous years, Erdogan has waged a bitter campaign, lashing out at Kilicdaroglu and other opponents. He accused them of colluding with what he calls terrorists. This year, he has also tried to disparage the opposition by saying it supported “deviant” LGBTQ+ rights that he says threaten Turkiye’s “sacred family structure.”
On Monday, he portrayed the election as a “choice between two futures.”
“Either we will elect those who take care of the family institution, which is the main pillar of society, or those who have the support of deviant minds that are hostile to the family,” Erdogan said.
He has expanded his alliance with two nationalist parties to include two small Islamist parties that call for amendments to a law protecting women against violence, arguing it encourages divorce.
Opposition parties again are complaining of an uneven playing field during the campaign, accusing Erdogan of using state resources as well as his government’s overwhelming control over the media.
Some also are questioning whether Erdogan would agree to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose. In 2019, Erdogan challenged the results of a local election in Istanbul after his ruling party lost the mayoral seat there, only to suffer an even more embarrassing defeat in a second balloting.
Turkiye’s Erdogan faces tough election amid quake, inflation
https://arab.news/52ztk
Turkiye’s Erdogan faces tough election amid quake, inflation
- The highly divisive and populist Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking a third consecutive term as president on May 14
- The presidential and parliamentary elections could be the most challenging yet for the 69-year-old Erdogan
What do the leaked Assad videos tell us about the deposed Syrian regime?
- Videos obtained by Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath channels expose former president Bashar Assad’s inner circle, revealing toxic culture
- Regional media coverage regard leaks as confirmation of critiques of Assad’s contempt for Syrians, cynicism toward allies
LONDON: The recent leak by Al-Arabiya of a series of videos allegedly showing Bashar Assad in candid, closed-door conversations has reopened longstanding questions about how his former regime functioned — and perhaps why Syria descended into such a devastating conflict.
Assad is shown in the Al-Arabiya leaks, prior to his Dec. 8, 2024, ouster, making contemptuous remarks about Syrians, Syria itself, Eastern Ghouta and even Russian President Vladimir Putin, while speaking privately with his late adviser Luna Al-Shibl.
While the new Syrian government of Ahmad Al-Sharaa has not verified the footage, analysts say the material is consistent with the behavior patterns of Assad’s inner circle: personalized decision-making, narrative obsession and a deep-rooted siege mentality.
“These videos don’t actually tell Syrians anything new — they merely reveal, with complete clarity, what people have known and lived through for decades,” Ibrahim Hamidi, editor-in-chief of Al-Majalla, who is himself from Syria, told Arab News.
“What stands out to me is the indifference and contempt he shows toward everything: his people, his cities, his allies, and the sense that power is an inheritance, not a responsibility.”
In one clip, when Al-Shibl asks him what he feels about the state of Syria, Assad says he does not only feel ashamed but “disgusted,” adding that this is “our country,” conveying revulsion rather than responsibility.
In another segment he says that when Syrians look him in the face he “loves them” yet is also “disgusted by them,” exposing a deeply cynical view of his own population.
He is also shown mocking ordinary Syrians for their spending priorities, saying they spend money on mosques even though they “cannot afford food.”
Several clips are from a tour of Eastern Ghouta and its surroundings, during or after the area’s reconquest in 2018. Assad is heard cursing Ghouta, directed at an area that had endured years of siege and bombardment.
“It showed that Assad is a weak dictator,” said Ghassan Ibrahim, a Syria expert and founder of the Global Arab Network. “He tried to present himself as a strong personality, but all these videos showed how easy it was to be manipulated by his assistant, his media officer.”
In another clip, Assad appears to mock the Russian president’s appearance, despite Moscow having been his main war-time ally.
When Al-Shibl draws his attention to how “puffy” Putin looks, Assad responds that it is “all procedures” or “all surgeries,” suggesting extensive cosmetic work.
The tone in these exchanges is casual and derisive, portraying Assad as privately belittling Putin’s looks while publicly thanking him.
“Such remarks reflect Assad’s deep-rooted duplicity,” said Egyptian writer and political expert Hani Nasira. “The same man who publicly deferred to Putin — whose military intervention preserved Assad’s rule and offered him refuge — privately mocked him.
“These comments will likely erode whatever sympathy Putin may still have for the former Syrian leader and underscore Assad’s penchant for betrayal, even toward those who offered him sanctuary.”
Hamidi concurs: “The question now is: How will Putin respond? Especially since Bashar lives in Moscow — and Putin does not easily forgive any insult.”
The videos also capture Assad and Al-Shibl speaking dismissively about Hezbollah and pro-regime commanders.
Regional media coverage framed the Assad leaks as confirmation of long-held critiques of his contempt for Syrians and cynicism toward allies, with tone varying by outlet but broadly harsh.
Pan-Arab platforms like The New Arab and Asharq Al-Awsat foregrounded Assad’s insults toward Ghouta, Syrians and the army, highlighting his disgust at Syria, and mockery of soldiers as emblematic of an entrenched disdain for his own population.
Gulf-based media stressed his ridicule of loyalist figures and allies, using the leaks to underline his perceived disloyalty to those who fought for him and to question his past narratives of steadfastness and resistance.
Syrian opposition-aligned and exile media amplified the footage as further evidence of his moral and political bankruptcy rather than a revelation, stressing that the content matched years of lived experience under his rule.
A recurring feature in the leaked clips is Assad’s habit of issuing direct orders to intelligence chiefs, senior officers and advisers, bypassing ministries and formal structures.
The informal tone — part off-the-record briefing, part reprimand — underscores the extent to which the Syrian state under Assad revolved around personal allegiance.
Assad postured publicly as a defender of the Syrian state but has since been unmasked as someone who harbors deep disdain for all around him.
In private, he mocks his loyal fighters, sneers at those who kiss his hand, and speaks of them with derision — as if unable to feel genuine empathy for their sacrifices.
“This is a man who views Syria through the lens of masters and servants, rulers and ruled,” said Nasira.
“To Assad, those who fought for him — in Syria and abroad — are nothing more than an annoyance. Speaking casually and comfortably to Al-Shibl, he reveals a condescending view of the nation, his people, and even his inner circle.”
The leaked videos stripped away the official image and exposed the toxic culture of a ruling circle that never viewed Syrians as citizens with rights but “as subjects expected to endure anything,” Hamidi said.
“For years, they endured hardships believing Assad was steady, serious, and above chaos. What hurts them now is seeing a completely different personality: careless, mocking, and seemingly dismissive of people’s suffering.
“This shakes the narrative they built in their minds to justify their loyalty. And when that narrative cracks, everything else becomes harder to defend.”
The footage also shows Assad fixating on media coverage, urging officials to safeguard the regime’s messaging and chastising those who, in his view, allowed “contradictory signals” to emerge.
His language mirrors longstanding regime strategy: project strength, deny missteps and attribute all instability to external interference.
Another pattern evident throughout the clips is Assad’s repeated framing of Syria’s crises as part of a coordinated foreign plot. Whether discussing political dissent, economic collapse or battlefield challenges, the theme of encirclement dominates.
The leaked comments reveal that “for Bashar Assad, there was never a true cause or message — just a regime to preserve, and a throne to protect,” Nasira said.
Despite the performative confidence, the videos reveal moments of frustration, especially when Assad chastises advisers for mismanaging situations or warns of rivalries within the security services.
The timing of the leaks is notable. Regional governments have reopened channels with Damascus, diplomatic rehabilitation is creeping forward, and the question of Syria’s postwar reconstruction looms large.
“Released on the anniversary of what pro-regime media called “Liberation Day” — marking the collapse of Assad’s rule — the timing could not have been more symbolic,” said Nasira.
For Syrians, the footage is less revelation than validation — an affirmation of what many lived through: a state defined not by institutions but by coercion, suspicion and the whims of an inner circle.
“Most Syrians no longer care about Bashar himself; they care about Syria’s future. They want to look forward, not backward,” said Hamidi.
For international observers, the videos offer one of the clearest windows yet into the operating logic of a regime that has survived sanctions, war, isolation and internal collapse.










