Record inflation dampens festive mood as Eid shopping drops by over 40% in Pakistan

A woman looks at jewelry at market during shopping ahead of the upcoming festival of Eid al-Fitr in Karachi on April 19, 2023. (AFP)
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Updated 21 April 2023
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Record inflation dampens festive mood as Eid shopping drops by over 40% in Pakistan

  • Traders say people are prioritizing essential goods over clothing and other Eid-related items amid economic uncertainty
  • According to an estimate, the overall Eid shopping is down to around Rs20 billion in Karachi alone ahead of Eid this year

KARACHI: The festive shopping mood ahead of the Muslim holiday of Eid Al-Fitr in Pakistan has dampened due to record high inflation and a major economic downturn, with traders complaining the situation has led to a drastic drop in sales by over 40 percent this year.

Eid is usually the most inclusive holiday celebration in the country during which friends and families get together in their new attire and exchange gifts. As the festival approaches, markets are typically crowded since people like to buy a range of products, including jewelry, clothes, and shoes.

However, buyers and sellers have been experiencing a challenging season in Pakistan this year, as the country is currently undergoing an economic turmoil and experienced 35.4 percent inflation last month which was more than double on year-on-year basis.

“At the minimum, Eid sales have dropped by 40 percent this time as compared to the Eid season last year,” Kashif Chaudhry, president of Markazi Tanzeem-e-Tajran Pakistan, or Central Organization of Pakistani Traders, told Arab News on Wednesday.

“High inflation is discouraging buyers to make their purchases while maintaining stocks has also become an issue this year since many manufacturers have been unable to honor their commitments and deliver orders on time due to import restrictions,” he added.




In this picture taken on April 16, 2023, people buy footwear at a store during shopping ahead of the upcoming festival of Eid al-Fitr in Lahore. (AFP/FILE)

Pakistan has restricted imports to prevent the outflow of US dollars amid depleting foreign exchange reserves that currently stand at $4 billion. The restriction has created shortage of raw materials for industrial products.

The ongoing war in Ukraine along with last year’s devastating floods and a stalled $7 billion International Monetary Fund bailout program have also exacerbated the economic crisis in the country.

Chaudhry said the people facing difficult economic circumstances were even struggling to meet their basic needs, such as food expenses and payment of utility bills, adding most of them were prioritizing purchasing of essential goods over clothing and other Eid-related items.

Atiq Mir, chairman of All Karachi Tajir Ittehad (AKTI), an umbrella organization of major business centers in the port city, agreed with Chaudhry.

“Sales are not satisfactory since the beginning of the season and the situation is extremely complex, confusing, and difficult to understand,” he told Arab News.

“Traders in major shopping centers in areas like Defense Society, Saddar, Hydery Market, and Tariq Road are complaining that their sales have dropped by more than 40 percent,” he added.




Women and children shop clothes ahead of the Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan, at a market in Peshawar on April 19, 2023. (AFP)

He acknowledged that markets in Karachi were still crowded, though he maintained this was because most people were taking a leisurely trip instead of actively seeking to buy products.

“They are not genuine buyers,” Mir said. “They are window shoppers who are on entertainment or pleasure-seeking trip. For every single buyer, about four or five people can be seen roaming around the city’s markets for fun.”

Most of the people are after cheap products with the price tag of about Rs2,500, he added.

The AKTI chief estimated that in Karachi alone the value of the overall shopping would be around Rs20 billion which was lower than previous year’s Rs25 billion.

“Around 50 percent of Eid stock is still unsold,” he said, adding: “I have talked to traders and they say they are in huge trouble and worried about making payments to their workers.”

Pakistani traders said most buyers this year were young people rather than elderly males who preferred to stay away from shopping.

“Men have been sacrificing their desires in the past, but this year they are having to forgo much more due to their family priorities,” Rana Tariq Mehboob, chairman of the Chainstore Association of Pakistan (CAP), a representative body of the country’s over 200 brands sold in more than 20,000 outlets in different cities, told Arab News.

“Most of them have been making purchases for their children and families, though there has also been a decline in the shopping by women belonging to low-income brackets since the prices of goods have spiked and the disposal income is fixed or has shrunk in real terms.”

The CAP chief said the member chain stores were also facing a tough situation with 25 to 30 percent decline in their sales this season as compared to the one last year.

“There is negative growth in the sales of casual wear for men and kids since the beginning of the current fiscal year in July 2022,” Mehboob said. “The current economic crisis is the main reason because the current situation is severely hurting the buying power of most households.”

Most shopkeepers said they were facing an awkward situation amid depressed sales and were “fed up with people making rounds to enquire about prices of different products.”

“People come in large numbers to ask about the prices and then leave,” Amir Aleem, a salesperson, said. “This is the kind of routine every day as we hardly find genuine buyers.”

However, most shoppers said they preferred to remain passive because of the uncertain economic situation and were trying to save for any future emergency.

“I have to keep in mind the future expenditures as the economic situation remains uncertain and more inflation is expected obviously due to the rising dollar-rupee disparity,” said Ali Mehmood, an office worker, who was visiting a market with his family.

Another buyer, Muhammad Aslam, worried about high electricity and other utility bills, saying he was cutting down on Eid shopping for himself and would only buy for children.


Pakistan’s transportation strike could cause economic losses of $1 billion, warn analysts

Updated 41 min 22 sec ago
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Pakistan’s transportation strike could cause economic losses of $1 billion, warn analysts

  • Traders, textile mill owners say strike has cost $60 million per day in exports, port demurrages, detention charges
  • Analysts warn 10-day strike could threaten economic stability by deepening inflation, widening current account deficit

KARACHI: Pakistan’s ongoing transportation strike has the potential to cause economic losses of up to $1 billion and threaten macroeconomic stability in the country, a leading economist warned this week. 

Transport unions have been protesting against stricter enforcement of axle-load limits — legal caps on how much weight trucks can carry — as well as increases in toll taxes and what they describe as heavy-handed policing on highways and motorways.

The strike, which began on Dec. 8, is now in its tenth day. It has slowed the flow of goods between ports, industrial centers and markets, raising concerns over supply chains in an economy heavily reliant on road transport for domestic trade and exports. Trucking is the backbone of Pakistan’s logistics system, moving food, fuel, raw materials and manufactured goods. 

“We are expecting a tremendous impact of the ongoing transportation strike,” Ahsan Mehanti, CEO of Arif Habib Commodities, told Arab News on Tuesday. 

“I believe that the major impact could be to the tune of $1 billion. And the reason behind that is primarily Karachi being a business hub will be most impacted with the ongoing strike.”

While a section of the transporters, the All Pakistan Goods Transport Association (APGTA) called off the strike after successful talks with the Punjab government on Friday, the rest of the transporters have vowed to continue the disruption. 

Manufacturers and exporters from the textile industry, which earns Pakistan the highest amount in exports, have estimated their daily losses at more than $60 million. 

Kamran Arshad, chairman of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA), said these losses were on account of disruption to exports as well as demurrage and detention charges that affected traders are bound to pay at local ports.

“I have estimated disruption to as much as $60 million ($540 million for nine-day losses) worth of exports and demurrage and detention charges of up to $300 per container per day stuck at ports,” Arshad said.

Arshad lamented that the textile industry was facing a critical situation as raw materials and essential inputs were stuck at ports and not reaching factories. On the other hand, finished export consignments were also unable to reach ports, he said. 

“Containers are stuck at mills, ports and depots and inventories are building up,” the APTMA chief said. “And backlogs are growing by the day.”

Pakistan Textile Exporters Association (PTEA) Patron-in-Chief Khurram Mukhtar calculated Pakistan’s monthly average textile exports at $1.5 billion.

“An eight-day transport shutdown alone has already caused approximately $400 million in export losses, with severe supply chain disruptions on top,” Mukhtar said. 

’BIG HIT’ TO EXPORTS

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has tasked his government to ensure sustained economic growth through an export-driven economy. However, Pakistan’s exports have shown far from promising results, falling by 15 percent to $2.4 billion in November, according to data by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). 

From the July-November period of this fiscal year, the country’s exports declined by six percent to $12.8 billion, while imports surged by 13 percent to $28.3 billion. This widened the trade deficit by 37 percent to $15.5 billion.

Arshad said other than financial losses, the trade industry was suffering from “serious reputational damage” when it came to international buyers due to the strike’s disruptions. 

“Missed delivery schedules result in cancelations and loss of future orders,” he told Arab News. “And once a buyer is lost, it is extremely difficult to regain their confidence.”

Rehan Hanif, president of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), agreed. 

“Our exports are already in trouble forcing us to run after dollars, so the exports are going to take a big hit,” Hanif explained. 

He urged the government to engage transporters and address their “genuine” demands immediately. 

Information Minister Attaullah Tarar and Finance Adviser Khurram Schehzad did not respond to queries sent by Arab News till the filing of this report. 

Hanif said the prolonged strike had created a huge backlog of cargos at local ports.

“They would have no space for more containers if this strike persisted for a couple of more days,” he said. “Pakistan’s daily losses from the strike are running in billions of rupees.”

POSSIBLE INFLATION SPIKE

However, Karachi Port Trust spokesperson Shariq Amin Farooqui rejected Hanif’s claims, saying that cargo “is coming and leaving” the country’s largest port smoothly. 

Pakistan’s inflation rose by 6.1 percent in November and is expected to fall in the SBP’s target range of 5 to 7 percent this financial year, which is ending in June. 

Pakistan’s current account balance reported a $112 million deficit in October from an $83 million surplus in September, according to the central bank. 

Mehanti warned the strike could pose dangers to Pakistan’s hard-earned macroeconomic stability.

“Inflation will be higher, and the current account deficit will be higher due to challenging economic situation,” he said.