RIYADH: The Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen have been forced to the negotiating table by the failure of their military campaign, a leading analyst has told Arab News.
A Saudi delegation is currently in Sanaa for talks on ending the conflict, and a three-day operation to exchange about 900 prisoners is expected to begin on Friday, one day later than previously announced. 

“I think that the Houthis, after a nine-year war that started with their 2014 coup, were unable to achieve their objectives through a military solution, which prompted them to resort to a peaceful solution,” Yemeni affairs expert Badr Al-Qahtani told Arab News.

Al-Qahtani is optimistic that a peace deal will be reached eventually. “Any agreement in Yemen will be UN-brokered and concluded between the government and the Houthis based on the three terms of reference, which are the Gulf Cooperation Council Initiative, the outcomes of the Comprehensive National Dialogue Conference and UN Resolution 2216,” he said.

Al-Qahtani said last month’s historic Chinese-brokered pact between Saudi Arabia and Iran to restore diplomatic ties had influenced events. “The regional peace agreements will not solve all of the problems swiftly,” he said. “However, they will inspire everyone, and regional powers will prompt their allies, while utilizing trust and influence, to push for peace.”

Yemen’s immediate need is a continuation of the current ceasefire, supported by regional powers, Al-Qahtani said. “The main guarantor is the influence that Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE and Oman have on the parties in Yemen,” he said.

“However, it all remains linked to the commitments that are made and to the Yemeni parties setting common goals, which include having a Yemeni state for the Yemeni people and taking into consideration the interests of neighbors and allies, if we want to be more realistic.”

Both Yemen and the wider Gulf will benefit from a peace agreement, Al-Qahtani said. “Yemen is neighboring the Gulf countries, which have huge economies and are completely aware of the fact that they cannot grow while having an unstable state for a neighbor,” he said.

“Yemen could benefit from the economic privileges of the Gulf system, making peace not only a political agreement but also a step that would help Yemen move away from a dire situation and toward a better one.”