When exactly will India surpass China as most populous?

Hindu devotees listen to a religious leader at the Sangam, the confluence of the Ganges, Yamuna and mythical Saraswati rivers, during the annual traditional fair of Magh Mela festival, in Prayagraj, in the northern Indian state of Uttar Pradesh, Jan. 31, 2023. (AP)
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Updated 10 April 2023
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When exactly will India surpass China as most populous?

  • Both China and India have populations of over 1.4 billion people
  • Calculations say India will overtake China in population in mid-April

India will surpass China's population this month. Or maybe in July. Or, perhaps it's happened already?

Demographers are unsure exactly when India will take the title as the most populous nation in the world because they're relying on estimates to make their best guess. But they know it's going to happen soon, if it hasn't occurred by now.
China has had the most people in the world since at least 1950, the year United Nations population data began. Both China and India have more than 1.4 billion people, and combined they make up more than a third of the world's 8 billion people.
“Actually, there is no way we can know exactly when India will surpass China," said Bruno Schoumaker, a demographer at Université catholique de Louvain in Belgium. “There is some uncertainty, not only about India’s population, but also China’s population."

STILL, WHEN IS IT HAPPENING?

Mathematical calculations from a range of surveys, as well as birth and death records, project that India will overtake China sometime in the middle of April. But demographers warn that it should be taken with a grain of salt since the numbers are fuzzy and could be revised.
“It's a crude approximation, a best guess,” said Patrick Gerland, chief of the population estimates and projections section at the U.N. in New York.
Not long ago, India wasn't expected to become most populous until later this decade. But the timing has been sped up by a drop in China's fertility rate, with families having fewer children.

HOW IS IT CALCULATED?

Demographers at the U.N. Population Division make estimates based on projections from a wide variety of data sources to get what they believe are the most up-to-date demographic numbers. The last update to the data used for these calculations for both India and China was July 2022, said Sara Hertog, a U.N. population affairs officer in New York.
The demographers then use a statistical technique to infer when India's population has surpassed that of China, according to Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor at Khalifa University of Science and Technology in Abu Dhabi.
“The reality, of course, is that these estimates are just that,” Gietel-Basten said. “But at least they are based on a relatively solid and consistent methodology.”

WHERE DO THE NUMBERS COME FROM?

The foundations of both nations' numbers are censuses, or head counts, conducted every decade.
China's last census was in 2020. Demographers used birth and death records, along with other administrative data, to calculate how the population has grown since then.
India's last census was in 2011. Its scheduled 2021 census was postponed by COVID-19. Without an actual door-to-door count for more than a decade, sample surveys have filled in the gaps to help demographers and India itself understand its population, said Alok Vajpeyi of the New Delhi-based non-government organization, Population Foundation of India.
Among the most important is the Sample Registration System, India's large-scale demographic survey that gathers data on such things as births, deaths, fertility and more.
Andrea Wojnar, the United Nations Population Fund's representative for India, said the agency is confident in the survey's numbers “because it uses a very robust methodology.”
WHY IS INDIA MOVING AHEAD?
China has an aging population with stagnant growth even after the government seven years ago retreated from a one-child policy, and just two years ago said couples could have three children.
India has a much younger population, a higher fertility rate and a decrease in infant mortality over the last three decades.
India has more babies born each year than in any other country, while China has joined many European countries in having more deaths each year than births, said Dudley Poston, Jr., an emeritus professor of sociology at Texas A&M University.

WHY DOES THIS MATTER?

There's more than bragging rights at stake over which nation is the world's most populous — there are social and economic consequences. In India, that means a growing labor force and growth that sparks economic activity. In China, that means fewer working-age adults able to support an aging population.
Once a country hits a low fertility level, it's often hard to recover population growth, even with changes in government policy to encourage more births, said Toshiko Kaneda, technical director of demographic research at the Population Reference Bureau in Washington.
“Psychologically, it will be tough for China, especially given the rivalry in other areas between the two countries,” Gietel-Basten said. “It is a big moment in human history as the baton is passed to India."


4 killed, including 3 foreign tourists, in Afghanistan shooting: govt

Updated 4 sec ago
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4 killed, including 3 foreign tourists, in Afghanistan shooting: govt

According to preliminary information provided by hospital sources, the three foreigners who were killed were Spanish nationals
The wounded were from Norway, Australia, Lithuania and Spain

KABUL: Three foreign tourists and an Afghan were killed on Friday in a shooting in the popular tourism destination of Bamiyan in central Afghanistan, the interior ministry said.
“One Afghan and three foreign nationals were killed,” in gunfire Friday evening in Bamiyan city, interior ministry spokesman Abdul Mateen Qani, told AFP.
Another four foreigners and three Afghans were wounded, he added.
Qani said the “foreigners were here for tourism,” without giving the nationalities of the foreign victims.
According to preliminary information provided by hospital sources, the three foreigners who were killed were Spanish nationals.
The wounded were from Norway, Australia, Lithuania and Spain.
Diplomatic sources said they were seeking to confirm the information, including the identities of the dead.
Security forces have arrested four people in connection with the attack, Qani said.
He did not say if there had been multiple shooters.
The Taliban government “strongly condemns this crime, expresses its deep feelings to the families of the victims and assures that all the criminals will be found and punished,” Qani said in a statement.
A local resident, who did not want to be named, said he “heard the sounds of successive gunshots, and the city streets leading to the site were blocked immediately by the security forces.”
Bamiyan, home to the giant Buddhas blown up by the Taliban in 2001, is Afghanistan’s top tourist destination.
Deadly attacks on foreigners have been rare in Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021.
Tourists have been traveling to the country in increasing numbers in recent years as security has improved since the Taliban ended their insurgency after ousting the US-backed government.
Arriving in western Herat province Friday evening, a foreign tourist posted on a WhatsApp group for travelers in Afghanistan that he and others were stopped by the Taliban authorities and told “that because of Bamiyan we were no longer safe.”
“After some time and Google translate, we convinced them to let us go, they said go eat quickly and get off the streets,” the tourist said.
The Bamiyan region is majority inhabited by members of the Hazara Shiite community.
The historically persecuted religious minority has been repeatedly targeted by the Daesh group, which considers them heretics.
The number of bombings and suicide attacks in Afghanistan has reduced dramatically since the Taliban authorities took power.
However, a number of armed groups, including IS, remain a threat.

Greek trial of Egyptians over Pylos shipwreck may be unfair: Rights groups

Updated 17 May 2024
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Greek trial of Egyptians over Pylos shipwreck may be unfair: Rights groups

  • Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch: Defendants disadvantaged by Coast Guard investigation, withheld evidence
  • Groups say evidence altered by Coast Guard, which was accused by survivors of causing disaster that killed over 600 people

LONDON: Human rights groups have raised concerns that the upcoming trial in Greece of nine Egyptians who survived the Pylos shipwreck in 2023 may not be fair.
The nine are charged with “smuggling, aggravated by the deaths of passengers, causing a shipwreck, irregular entry, and forming and membership of a criminal organization,” with the possibility of multiple life sentences if convicted.
However, while the trial is set to commence on May 21, an investigation into the culpability of Greek authorities over the disaster, which killed at least 600 of the 750 passengers aboard, is only at its preliminary stage.
Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch warned the mismatched timing of the process jeopardized the chance of a fair trial.
Judith Sunderland, associate Europe and Central Asia director at HRW, said: “There’s a real risk that these nine survivors could be found ‘guilty’ on the basis of incomplete and questionable evidence given that the official investigation into the role of the Coast Guard has not yet been completed.”
She added: “Credible and meaningful accountability for one of the worst shipwrecks in the Mediterranean needs to include a determination of any liabilities of Greek authorities.”
The overcrowded vessel sank in Greek waters on June 14 last year, carrying people mainly from Egypt, Syria and Pakistan.
Both HRW and Amnesty subsequently accused the Hellenic Coast Guard of culpability, and there have been numerous allegations that a patrol boat caused the disaster after it tried to tow the stricken migrant vessel.
So far, 53 survivors have come forward as part of a case brought against the Hellenic Coast Guard in front of the country’s Naval Court, which began in June last year but has made little progress.
However, the “Pylos 9” have been accused of being smugglers in charge of the vessel that sank and therefore culpable for the disaster.
They were arrested on June 15 following testimony by nine other survivors of the disaster blaming them, which was compiled and submitted by Coast Guard investigators. They deny the charges.
In a statement, HRW and Amnesty said: “There are real concerns regarding the respect of fair trial standards based on questions about the integrity of the investigation and evidence.
“The speed at which the investigation against survivors was concluded, and the Pylos 9 defense lawyers’ lack of access to the Naval Court case file compound these concerns.”
Investigations by Lighthouse Reports and Solomon also found eyewitness testimony compiled by the Coast Guard contained identical accounts of the accident, which omitted details about the patrol boat later submitted to a public prosecutor in Kalamata.
Another witness told HRW and Amnesty their testimony had been altered by the Coast Guard to omit the claim that the patrol boat caused the disaster.
The defense team for the nine Egyptians has also claimed requests for evidence for the criminal trial, including data from survivors’ mobile phones confiscated by Greek authorities, have been denied over questions into the jurisdiction of the Naval Court investigation.
“The defendants’ lawyers have been unable to gain access to the investigation file before the Naval Court despite its clear relevance to preparing the defense,” Amnesty and HRW said.
“The judge also rejected motions by defense lawyers to take testimony from additional survivors, and to acquire the communications between the Hellenic Coast Guard, Frontex and the Greek Joint Rescue Coordination Center, and aerial photos of the boat prior to the shipwreck.
“The Kalamata court should guarantee that the Pylos 9 receive a fair and impartial trial, and that their full due process rights are upheld and respected. The Naval Court should advance investigations promptly, effectively and impartially and ensure the safe and effective participation of the largest possible number of survivors and relatives of victims and full collection of evidence,” they added.
The groups also highlighted the tendency for Greek authorities to blame people from ethnic minorities for smuggling and people trafficking, citing a study that said that as of February 2023, 90 percent of the 2,154 people detained in Greece on smuggling charges were “third country” nationals.
“Time and again, in Greece and in other countries, racialized people who are seeking to travel to Europe end up being the only ones facing accountability in the context of migration movements,” said Adriana Tidona, migration researcher at Amnesty International.
“The Pylos investigations and trials must serve as a turning point for this dangerous trajectory.”


King Charles III to attend D-Day anniversary in France: palace

Updated 17 May 2024
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King Charles III to attend D-Day anniversary in France: palace

  • The 75-year-old British head of state will be at a commemorative event at the British Normandy Memorial in northern France on June 6
  • Charles will be accompanied by his wife Queen Camilla and elder son Prince William

LONDON: King Charles III is to make his first overseas trip since being diagnosed with cancer, at an event to mark the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings, Buckingham Palace said on Friday.
The 75-year-old British head of state, who only recently resumed public engagements, will be at a commemorative event at the British Normandy Memorial in northern France on June 6, a statement read.
The memorial, at Ver-sur-Mer, is near Gold Beach, the codename for one of five separate beachheads in northern France where Allied troops came ashore on June 6, 1944.
Charles will be accompanied by his wife Queen Camilla, 76, and elder son Prince William, 41, who will join Canadian veterans at the Juno Beach Center at Courseulles-sur-Mer, along the Channel coast.
William will then join more than 25 heads of state, representing his father at the international commemorative ceremony at Omaha Beach, where US troops landed.
Charles and Camilla will head to France, where they made a three-day state visit last year, after attending the UK’s national commemorative event in Portsmouth, southern England, on June 5.
Senior royals will be out in force in both the UK and France for the anniversary, which is likely to be among the last to feature veterans who served in World War II.
As head of state, Charles is commander-in-chief of the British armed forces but also served in the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force.
His heir William was an RAF search and rescue pilot before becoming a full-time royal.
One notable absentee from the commemorations will be William’s wife Catherine, 42, who is receiving chemotherapy treatment for cancer, and was last seen at a public engagement in December last year.
Charles announced his diagnosis in February but last month royal officials said doctors were “very encouraged” by the progress of his treatment, allowing him to resume his official duties.
This week he has attended a Buckingham Palace garden party and a commemoration service at St. Paul’s Cathedral, as well as unveiling a new official portrait of himself.


Elon Musk confirms Twitter has become X.com

Updated 17 May 2024
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Elon Musk confirms Twitter has become X.com

  • Billionaire head of Tesla bought Twitter for $44 billion in late 2022 and announced rebrand to X last July
  • Although the logo and branding were changed to “X,” the domain name remained Twitter.com until Friday

PARIS: The social network formerly known as Twitter has fully migrated over to X.com, owner Elon Musk said on Friday.

The billionaire head of Tesla, SpaceX and other companies bought Twitter for $44 billion in late 2022 and announced the rebrand to X last July.

Although the logo and branding were changed to “X,” the domain name remained Twitter.com until Friday.

“All core systems are now on X.com,” Musk wrote on X, posting an image of a logo of a white X on a blue circle.

Queries to Twitter.com redirected users to X.com on Friday morning, though the original domain name still appeared on some browsers.

Musk has repeatedly used the letter X in the branding of his companies, starting in 1999 with his attempt to set up an online financial superstore called X.com.

When he bought Twitter, he set up a company called X Corp. to close the deal.

Musk has said he wants “X” to become a super-app along the lines of China’s WeChat.

The Chinese app is much bigger than X and weaves together messaging, voice and video calling, social media, mobile payment, games, news, online booking and other services.

He has also bolted onto X an AI chatbot called “Grok,” which was launched in Europe this week.

Musk’s leadership of X has proved controversial.

He has fired thousands of staff, overseen major technical problems and reinstated accounts of right-wing conspiracy theorists, as well as former US president Donald Trump.

European regulators have also begun probes into X and other social media platforms over fears of misinformation.

The EU demanded earlier this month that X explain its decision to cut content moderation staff, giving the firm a deadline of Friday.

AFP has contacted X for their response.


Taliban supreme leader makes rare visit to Afghan capital

Updated 17 May 2024
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Taliban supreme leader makes rare visit to Afghan capital

  • Hibatullah Akhundzada gave a speech in front of the 34 provincial governors
  • The appointment of officials on the basis of “favoritism or personal relationships” was also to be avoided

KABUL: The shadowy supreme leader of the Taliban authorities made a rare visit to Afghanistan’s capital, a government website said Friday, leaving his reclusive compound in Kandahar to meet with the country’s senior officials.
It comes after a string of small-scale clashes between farmers and Taliban anti-narcotic units tasked with destroying poppy fields, and flash floods that have killed hundreds.
Hibatullah Akhundzada gave a speech in front of the 34 provincial governors on Thursday at the Interior Ministry, the Taliban website Al Emarah said.
The leader emphasized “unity and harmony,” according to a summary of the speech posted to the website on Friday.
“Obedience was highlighted as a divine obligation,” it said, adding that the implementation of Islamic Sharia law and principles “should take precedence over personal interests.”
The appointment of officials on the basis of “favoritism or personal relationships” was also to be avoided.
Akhundzada, of whom only one photo has been publicly circulated, rarely appears in public, ruling by decree from a secretive compound in the southern city of Kandahar.
His cabinet, however, sits in the capital Kabul, from where they implement his decisions.
The purpose of the visit was likely about “enforcing internal discipline and unity,” a Western diplomat told AFP, adding that it could be motivated by the unrest in Badakhshan in eastern Afghanistan.
Witnesses reported that Taliban forces opened fire to disperse villagers protesting against poppy clearing — a lucrative crop banned by Akhundzada in April 2022.
Several people died in one of the clashes, a Taliban official said at the time.
The Afghan authorities have also had to repress demonstrations by settled nomads in the province of Nangarhar and are faced with regular deadly attacks from the Daesh group, particularly in Kabul.
“Whenever you see cracks or disagreements, then you have Kandahar stepping in reminding everyone and enforcing that (unity) as well,” the diplomat added.